wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 if anything, we took a step towards a much further NW solution. this one is over for Detroit IMO I would agree, unless the Euro shifts back SE (though I think it's pretty unlikely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm going watch places north and south of me get blasted. Now that sucks. Northern half of MN gets rocked. Twin Cities donut hole FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The PGFS would be a heartbreaker here. 9" at RFD to 1" from me to the city. Still in the game here though. See what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm going watch places north and south of me get blasted. Now that sucks. Northern half of MN gets rocked. Twin Cities donut hole FTL. MSP may still reel this one in yet (if we get a full phase)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 MSP may still reel this one in yet (if we get a full phase)... He's probably more in play for the northern stream system, as this event we're discussing is not likely to shift that far NW (I could definitely see a LaCrosse to Rhinelander/Green Bay special though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still looks like a couple of inches of front-end stuff for YYZ on the 12z GFS. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Its interesting that in less than 2 days the worries for the next storm go from "this ones over (suppression)" to "this ones over (too far NW)" yet an ugly 16-day model run will instantly draw ire from many as if its set in stone, even if only facetiously. Models ftl I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GGEM stays wound up. 995 over Saginaw at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GGEM stays wound up. 995 over Saginaw at 96. So basically, it's like the pGFS. At least were getting some agreement on the storm track (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 He's probably more in play for the northern stream system, as this event we're discussing is not likely to shift that far NW (I could definitely see a LaCrosse to Rhinelander/Green Bay special though). Yeah I might be in play for a defo band sagging south from the northern stream. But I don't see a big enough swing to the NW to get in on the phase fun. Madison to Lacrosse looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still a ways away but I'm feeling more confident in seeing some accumulating snows at some point with this storm. Looks like a mix bag for awhile before shifting to snow. I think the heaviest ends up a bit northwest of here, but still too early. PGFS would be a direct hit for the QCA, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Also just a reminder, the northern stream is still being poorly sampled and will continue to be until about Thursday night 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GEM, GFS, and PGFS all have a decent icing/sleet period going on over parts of CHI and Nrn IL before changing over to snow. Curious to see how that may play out. On the outside looking in again on this one, like most of OH and IN. Maybe some mixed precip on the leading edge. I suppose we'll get something eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z GGEM stays wound up. 995 over Saginaw at 96. Still has 4-5 hours of mod-heavy snow before a couple of hours of PL followed by a soaking. Also wouldn't be surprised if CAD is stronger than modelled by the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still has 4-5 hours of mod-heavy snow before a couple of hours of PL followed by a soaking. Also wouldn't be surprised if CAD is stronger than modelled by the globals. can already tell there are going to be a lot of the high is 2 mb stronger than the 0z GFS posts with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thinking we'll have potential to start as freezing rain here but timing may play a role. The earlier we can get precip to begin on Saturday morning, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like a classic mid-level qpf slop storm. Thinking somewhere in the range of .4 to .6 liquid starting as pingers before quickly flipping to zr and maybe even plain rain before ending as a slushy inch or so. The WAA period is just too long and robust for this to be a snowstorm for mby. Still by far the most interesting event of the season imby. Wouldn't mind seeing low level cold hang tough to deliver a rare lakefront ice storm but that's rare for a reason. Good luck with the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Good luck with the ice nc_gfsptype12-29.gif haha, force field in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thinking we'll have potential to start as freezing rain here but timing may play a role. The earlier we can get precip to begin on Saturday morning, the better. on the plus side, WAA precip is usually quick to advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 on the plus side, WAA precip is usually quick to advance Indeed, though we'll have to overcome dry air per forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah I might be in play for a defo band sagging south from the northern stream. But I don't see a big enough swing to the NW to get in on the phase fun. Madison to Lacrosse looking nice. I haven't got a good look at the gem H7 maps as of yet today, but my first guess is that it develops a weak disturbance at that level between the southern energy and the northern energy around hour 72, causing earlier phase of the two systems, other models are trying to hint at that, but don't quite get there. If the TC metro gets into play on the phase this is how its going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GGEM has been relatively consistent with ice occurring over a bigger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GGEM has been relatively consistent with ice occurring over a bigger area. ZR_000-108_0000.gif hope thundersnow has a generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm pretty meh on any ice here. Even if, should be pretty brief and inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 999(Lake Erie) x 1039(Kansas Nebraska Border) at H96 on the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro pretty nice for Chicago/NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 12z Euro still staying on the south side of all the models tracking near Toronto at 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Weaker solution = less ice it looks like on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro is still remaining consistent with not being as amped up as the others and passing south of here. Of all the models it did the best job with the Christmas nightmare storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro still consistent bringing the snow swath through Chi metro although with weaker amounts as the system doesn't really get going like the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.