buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The flatter memo never made it to the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like no major shift coming on the 00z GGEM...little slower to bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like no major shift coming on the 00z GGEM...little slower to bomb out. The site I use for the GEM hasn't updated yet. Any major differences at 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like no major shift coming on the 00z GGEM...little slower to bomb out. perhaps it may be finally catching on and future runs will show a less phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GGEM seems a little cooler in some areas. Other than Alek's lakefront palace, looks like most of Chicagoland would maintain some form of wintry precip throughout on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The flatter memo never made it to the ggem Flatter would not be good for anyone, you need it to be at least a bit meridional to get the cold air drawn into the system and for the cold sector to get precip. All a flat solution would consist of is warm sector precip until it gets into the Northeast when it would eventually phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GGEM seems a little cooler in some areas. Other than Alek's lakefront palace, looks like most of Chicagoland would maintain some form of wintry precip throughout on this run. Actually looks like most of the snow stays NW. The 2" line at least on WxBell runs from Keokuk, IA to Mt Geos. Big winner in south central WI and on northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Actually looks like most of the snow stays NW. The 2" line at least on WxBell runs from Keokuk, IA to Mt Geos. Big winner in south central WI and on northeast from there. Hoosier did say "wintry precip." So he could be referring to freezing rain/sleet also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Actually looks like most of the snow stays NW. The 2" line at least on WxBell runs from Keokuk, IA to Mt Geos. Big winner in south central WI and on northeast from there. Was thinking more in terms of mixed/ice. Granted I'm looking at 6 hour increments so can't rule out a very brief warmup in there as the low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Actually looks like most of the snow stays NW. The 2" line at least on WxBell runs from Keokuk, IA to Mt Geos. Big winner in south central WI and on northeast from there. Wxbell correction: move that axis 75 miles nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Southern WI and up towards the Mackinaw gets socked on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looking at the hourly maps, that GGEM run is nasty in terms of ice for a good part of Chicagoland. Temps become iffy but verbatim, most of the precip falls as zr in 2 rounds with a lull in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looking at the hourly maps, that GGEM run is nasty in terms of ice for a good part of Chicagoland. Temps become iffy but verbatim, most of the precip falls as zr in 2 rounds with a lull in between.Meteogram lays down about 14mm (0.55") of ZR in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Meteogram lays down about 14mm (0.55") of ZR in Chicago. Looks like there's a period where it's indicating R/ZR mix with borderline thermals as it has both precip types at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Uncle ukie isn't buying what the ggem is selling. Tough to determine where it goes but it goes from Amarillo to Montréal in the 96 to 120 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Uncle ukie isn't buying what the ggem is selling. Tough to determine where it goes but it goes from Amarillo to Montréal in the 96 to 120 range Better than what it had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Better than what it had before. True it is better than before but no where near as amped up as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Euro looks amped, but strangely enough, very similar to the GFS at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 0z NCEP ensemble tracks look south of the GFS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2014123100.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like a classic mid-level qpf slop storm. Thinking somewhere in the range of .4 to .6 liquid starting as pingers before quickly flipping to zr and maybe even plain rain before ending as a slushy inch or so. The WAA period is just too long and robust for this to be a snowstorm for mby. Still by far the most interesting event of the season imby. Wouldn't mind seeing low level cold hang tough to deliver a rare lakefront ice storm but that's rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks like a classic mid-level qpf slop storm. Thinking somewhere in the range of .4 to .6 liquid starting as pingers before quickly flipping to zero and maybe even plain rain before ending as a slushy inch or so. The WAA period is just too long and robust for this to be a snowstorm for mby. Still by far the most interesting event of the season imby. Wouldn't mind seeing low level cold hang tough to deliver a rare lakefront ice storm but that's rare for a reason. IMO this is rare optimism on your part. And then maybe a clipper train thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 IMO this is rare optimism on your part. And then maybe a clipper train thereafter. The probability of the system directly impacting our area is high and there will be enough remnant cold to avoid an all plain rain pisser but this isn't really screaming snowstorm to me. I haven't even looked at what comes next yet. I do enjoy seeing yet another GFS/Euro battle shaping up and don't mind having the better model show snow for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 NAM is going to have that disjointed garbage look a lot of the GEFS have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS getting that ice ice baby look for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS getting that ice ice baby look for the burbs Soundings should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Soundings should be interesting. system ends up being another lame disjointed dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 12z GFS is completely different than the 00z. It holds the southern low back and wave separation with the northern stream is minimal. A full phase is definitely in play, but the bigger point is probably that the models don't really have a good handle on this yet. Didn't make a whole lot of difference at the surface, but the potential is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 12z GFS is completely different than the 00z. It holds the southern low back and wave separation with the northern stream is minimal. A full phase is definitely in play, but the bigger point is probably that the models don't really have a good handle on this yet. Didn't make a whole lot of difference at the surface, but the potential is obvious. Wouldnt the high prevent it from cutting that far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wouldnt the high prevent it from cutting that far NW? if anything, we took a step towards a much further NW solution. this one is over for Detroit IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 if anything, we took a step towards a much further NW solution. this one is over for Detroit IMO Agreed. Although the closer we are to a phase, the closer we are to a much more impressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.