Snowstorms Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z UKMET takes the storm through Kentucky. If it were exploited beyond 144 hours, it would look similar to the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GGEM looks like a solid hit as well just by looking at the black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The energy that will eventually lead to our cutoff was coming onshore at 12z. Models don't like cutoffs though so I'm not sure how much this will help with model variability. Perhaps it will calm down some of the wild swings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z GGEM was a great run for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The GEM would be a huge hit for the GTA. The model came north so dramatically due to the speed/presence of the upstream kicker. The faster kicker allows the cutoff to track further north faster, and eventually the two disturbances phase over the eastern lakes. 0z Run 12z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I liked Gino's write-up. Makes perfect sense, given how things have gone so far. However, that snow map......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Huge spread on the 12z GEFS, though most members have precip over at least some part of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 4:58 PM, Snowstorms said: 12z UKMET takes the storm through Kentucky. If it were exploited beyond 144 hours, it would look similar to the 6z GFS. You're an awesome troll, Snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:01 PM, snowstormcanuck said: You're an awesome troll, Snowstorms. Yeah, I saw that before, but I chose not to draw attention to it (hoping it was a bad typo)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:02 PM, Powerball said: Yeah, I saw that before, but I chose not to draw attention to it (hoping it was a bad typo)... He does it all the time. Uses malapropisms that even 7th graders would recognize as incorrect. 95% sure he's trolling when he does it. And cheers to him, it's a novel (well to me at least) type of trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:06 PM, snowstormcanuck said: He does it all the time. Uses malapropisms that even 7th graders would recognize as incorrect. 95% sure he's trolling when he does it. And cheers to him, it's a novel (well to me at least) type of trolling. no way it's intentional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:10 PM, A-L-E-K said: no way it's intentional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z Euro looks a little more progressive with the northern stream feature compared to 0z but not nearly to the extend of the GEM as of hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 By 114 the placement of northern stream energy(kicker and downstream PV) is almost identical to the 12z GEM yet the cutoff is much more positively tilted on the euro. May be holding the energy back in the SW incorrectly. EDIT: Ends up ejecting as a sheared/suppressed mess while the GEM/GFS have a much more organized/progressive cutoff low. Euro could be wrong in this case. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 144 hour map suggests the Euro is going to try to shear this thing to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:29 PM, Hoosier said: 144 hour map suggests the Euro is going to try to shear this thing to death. Yep, being pulled by the extra cutoff to the south, while being pushed by the northern stream to the north. Hot mess for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:25 PM, blizzardof96 said: By 114 the placement of northern stream energy(kicker and downstream PV) is almost identical to the 12z GEM yet the cutoff is much more positively tilted on the euro. May be holding the energy back in the SW incorrectly. EDIT: Ends up ejecting as a sheared/suppressed mess while the GEM/GFS have a much more organized/progressive cutoff low. Euro could be wrong in this case. Thoughts? Not sure if the Euro still has that slow cutoff bias liked it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Crazy Uncle will be un-EURO like. Although, even without thermal plots I can tell it'll be a somewhat warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagined and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:42 PM, A-L-E-K said: this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagined and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010 You can't say that this system is going to be a miss. Too many wild model swings right now to be confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:42 PM, A-L-E-K said: this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagined and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010 The bias is still there though, it is more sad that we have been talking about it for years and it still hasn't been corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 6:42 PM, A-L-E-K said: this end of the month to early new year period is turning out to be even more boring than I had imagine and the euro cut off bias talking point is so 2010 Euro is king. But in all fairness, still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Once this gets within 84hrs, we will know where this one is going. NAM time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 7:48 PM, Jonger1150 said: Once this gets within 84hrs, we will know where this one is going. NAM time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z EURO ensembles are amped and NW of the OP but a ton a spread. Source: new England forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 On 12/29/2014 at 7:48 PM, Jonger1150 said: Once this gets within 84hrs, we will know where this one is going. NAM time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 12z run of the EC ENS look more favourable then the 0z run with the heaviest QPF across the eastern part of the subforum/interior northeast. Lots and lots of spread though. Wouldn't want to commit to any particular solution given the volatile setup although I am personally leaning towards the more amped up guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 So far out that all that can be done is wait until confidence begins to build come Saturday morning for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 18z GFS hanging on to the more north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 18z PGFS shifted north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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