Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 A low is forecast by the full suite of operational models, with strong signals also in the GFS/EC/GEM ensembles, to cut off from the flow over or near the Great Basin in the middle of next week. The low is then forecast to shear northeast toward the Great Lakes as it is absorbed by broad large scale troughing developing over the northern CONUS. It is shown to remain rather steady state as it approaches, and has the potential to pick up a load of Gulf moisture on its way. What I like about this system (that has led me to go weenie and start a thread 180 hours out): 1. Large features are the ones predominantly at play: A cutoff low and a broad continental scale height fall region. Also see: No wave phasing dependence and no northern stream shortwaves of major importance 2. Minimal system evolution. At this time, the low is shown to just shear northeast and that's about it. No big time wave amplification means no collapsing in scale of features during intensification and no huge model variability regarding strength and subsequent low placement. 3. I think there is a relatively small corridor of possible tracks, probably from one that bisects Michigan to one that bisects Ohio. Op and ensemble models all have a prominent southeast ridge which should help steer the low northeast in this fashion. This is just as important as anything at this stage, because we aren't talking about a big, longwave-altering baroclinic wave. This low should simply ride along in the prevailing southwest flow for the most part. It could get suppressed, and I'll feel better once we see where the low cuts off, but I like how it looks so far. I recently made the comment that I like the potential in this setup, and since then all of the guidance has come on board. Consensus and continuity are outstanding, especially at this time range. Even the NOGAPS has come to play. Of course, that could also mean that when the models change course at all, they do it all at once. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, the potential for accumulating snow in the forum is there, and we are slowly filling up then medium range thread with discussion about it, so let's do it here instead. Also, I've never started a storm thread before and I wanted to. Forgive me The 00z GFS just came in. Yet again, no changes. Discuss: Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 0z PGFS is a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 0z PGFS is a little farther south. The 00z GEM suppresses it due to cutting off the low just off the west coast. Such variability can be expected with a low cutting off like that. For this type of pattern, you generally like the ECMWF and GFS more than the GEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 When it verifies, there will be many toasts to you !!! Trying to keep the positive vibe theme going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 And if it busts, I'm getting drunk and starting the countdown to next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 ^^ You won't be alone.... As a snow contractor Decembers billing is a little thin. One salt and perhaps another this weekend as per 0Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Euro looks way south... guess this thread is off to a good karma start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 0z Euro looks like it will be possibly an apps runner or east GLC. At 192 Low is on the central MS/AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 0z Euro looks like it will be possibly an apps runner or east GLC. At 192 Low is on the central MS/AL border. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Euro looks way south... guess this thread is off to a good karma start Awesome. Yeah, it cuts the low off too far west and it takes just a hair too long to get picked up. Thankfully, NWP tend to close off lows a little differently with every run. There are a number of places the low could cut off it would work. Tonight's Euro did not show one of those places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Awesome. Yeah, it cuts the low off too far west and it takes just a hair too long to get picked up. Thankfully, NWP tend to close off lows a little differently with every run. There are a number of places the low could cut off it would work. Tonight's Euro did not show one of those places. My bigger worry is the northern stream being too fast and instead of it sliding this way it gets suppressed and out to sea. Considering the -EPO is supposed to be going gangbusters it isn't that surprising the northern stream is going strong into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Am I the only one that feels emotionally incapable of tracking another storm for a week? Also, is anyone else drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STANDARD DEVIATION WOULD SUGGEST THE H5 LOW TRACK WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO BE LOW AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. - per Quad Cities AFD Might be DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 While many solutions are on the table (even the elusive MSP special), I would definitely lean the direction of a Ohio Valley-southward storm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 While many solutions are on the table (even the elusive MSP special), I would definitely lean the direction of a Ohio Valley-southward storm, As you said, many solutions on the table, and as long as the storm doesnt vanish (very unlikely), some snow starved folks will be happy. Wondering why you say south though? If anything rainmans analysis in the OP makes me like where we sit over those north or south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Tough to say what the 12z GFS is going to do. But I do like how the PV (in this run, as well as in other runs/models) is poking over Hudson Bay. I would say this increases the chances that, even if the storm cuts a bit, it could still be a candidate for a front-end thump solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Tough to say what the 12z GFS is going to do. But I do like how the PV (in this run, as well as in other runs/models) is poking over Hudson Bay. I would say this increases the chances that, even if the storm cuts a bit, it could still be a candidate for a front-end thump solution.500mb pattern resembles the ice storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 500mb pattern resembles the ice storm last year. I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm actually surprised by how far NW the 12z GFS brought the sfc system given that there wasn't really a phase with the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lol check out the difference between the 12z OP GFS and PGFS at 162h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'm actually surprised by how far NW the 12z GFS brought the sfc system given that there wasn't really a phase with the polar jet. Are you sure? It would say there's better jet interaction this time, if anything... 12z GFS 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Not. Getting. Excited..... Granted it's 162 hours... but the frame above (from smoof) that shows the low over, or near Chicago, with rain.... Uh huh, yeah. No. Wake me if it gets exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Are you sure? It would say there's better jet interaction this time, if anything... 12z GFS 00z GFS You can see that string of PVA on the H5 plots around 156 running from near Seattle to the northern Plains. That's the bulk of the northern stream energy and it never really gets entrained into the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As you said, many solutions on the table, and as long as the storm doesnt vanish (very unlikely), some snow starved folks will be happy. Wondering why you say south though? If anything rainmans analysis in the OP makes me like where we sit over those north or south of us. Models in these setups tend to always be too quick to send those orphaned shortwaves in the SW eastward, and usually the extent of northern stream interaction needed to allow for the non-suppressed solutions is just missed. Just a slightly faster ejection of the SW shortwave or the northern stream shortwave setting up just a bit further west will allow for the non-suppressed solutions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like some potential with this one, but I'm still burned out from tracking the last storm, so wake me up in 72-96 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro will be a more southern track again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro will be a more southern track again. it's a crappy setup for our area. There's a low to our north and one to our south. Very little cold sector precip. No one gets much snow. Even so, assuming there was a high to our north, the southern storm takes a track to southern Ohio, which would be WTOD for most of the Ohio crowd anyways. Looks like another messy, complicated, need-too-many-things-to-come-together, type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like 12z Euro will be a more southern track again. Yep looks like it would track along the Ohio River or just south of there, much slower than the OP GFS to close off the low and go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z GGEM has a track in between the north GFS and more south Euro, maybe a good compromise but 168hrs out anything can and will happen yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z GGEM has a track in between the north GFS and more south Euro, maybe a good compromise but 168hrs out anything can and will happen yet lol. the Canadian is a nice hit for the Chicago thru most of Michigan crowd. But the surface features are pretty different than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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