TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The gfs is a massive torch cutter. The para is actually a decent snow event for SNE. It now looks like that is even delayed further out to about the 6th now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That whole gfs run is a total slap in the face if you like snow. Speaking verbatim of course, its the cutter on the 4/5th followed by nothing, and then it looks to be cooking up another warm looking system in clown range. Similar to what has been said for days. This pattern could produce, or it could lay an egg. Most of the models have showed both of those scenarios over the last few runs. Nothing is close to being resolved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Huge pattern change from the last three weeks, most reliable indicator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 ggem isnt a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 GGEM is out to sea snowstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks like some colder solutions last night, but remember we are light years away from an outcome when it comes to model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol what is a ots snowstorm GGEM is out to sea snowstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's a period of snow, but the trend has been to shove everything south over recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Noyes calling for all rain on air. Even for NNE.. Has it coming in on Saturday. Almost like he's using 24 hour old data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Looks better to me than a GLC. I'll take my chances with the set-up as modeled now. If it ends up suppressed than cold defeated warmth. There could still be some northern stream lighter snows even if the southern wave stayed SE. Plenty of time for a trend back north. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The best idea is seriously to not worry about this system for another 2 days. It is 6-7 days out. You'll drive yourself batsh** crazy if you keep worrying about a storm that far out. The Euro actually shows you a way to miss the storm almost entirely...gets crunched out to the south and barely gets a tenth of QPF into CT. So no use in obsessing over the track of this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The ensembles are actually more amped up than the op guidance, but the idea has been to move things south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Noyes calling for all rain on air. Even for NNE.. Has it coming in on Saturday. Almost like he's using 24 hour old data And that is just a guess at this point, as is anyone else's. We are still talking ~6 days out. You could call for partly sunny and it would matter right now. I finally took a gander at the overnight runs and as Scott said, they have a colder look to them than prior days/runs. Can still change as we have no clue how this cutoff will eject East. It needs to be timed right if you're looking for that wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 yes the bottom line is it is December 29th and we are evolving into a better pattern for at least the next couple of weeks. Despite the absence of a negative nao, there will be more persistent cold with opportunities for storms that could produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol what is a ots snowstorm SLP rides out South of New England but it throws back moisture well inland. It's a nice system as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The models are almost useless right now outside of 4 days in this pattern. Hopefully they will get it figured out Colder temps is all we can really count on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Why is there a theme in the models to pinch off the western ridge in the medium range and float it towards the pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The best idea is seriously to not worry about this system for another 2 days. It is 6-7 days out. You'll drive yourself batsh** crazy if you keep worrying about a storm that far out. The Euro actually shows you a way to miss the storm almost entirely...gets crunched out to the south and barely gets a tenth of QPF into CT. So no use in obsessing over the track of this right now. Every run on all the models have a different solution with its handling of the timing and strength of the s/w in the SW, This storm is no different then any other over the last couple years that it won't get resolved until we get inside a 96 hr window and that maybe a stretch as well as we have seen in other instances that we have had to wait to inside 72 hrs, Right now, The cold air is what is needed to freeze the ground, And it looks like that is setting in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Nice shout out to WSI and Mike V on Epstein's tweet. https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/549575018674286592 Granted it will probably move slower that that, but you can see on that one graphic where the purple helps denote forcing and it's nowhere near the Indian Ocean through mid January. That's what I was getting at yesterday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Just as an FYI...the staff is making a real concerted effort to keep this thread very clean. We want this thread to be about the pattern in January and very relevant points to that...pretty much a technical discussion. Any posts that are unrelated or non-technical such as "I really hope this pattern produces snow by January 15th or I'm throwing in the towel." will be moved to the banter thread. Before anyone gets defensive and starts pointing fingers, all of us have been guilty of those offenses. We think that play by play of OP model runs probably don't belong in here considering a random Euro run that shows a snowstorm 6 days out can take up 50 posts with the back and forth that occurs during the play by play. This is different than saying "the new Euro really amplifies the EPO ridge past day 5, this would create a different look on the pattern than previously thought" or something like that. The stuff we want to avoid is more like "GGEM shows a cutter this run"....."GFS is a cutter and Para is a snowstorm". If there's any questions on moderating, take it to banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Pattern change has started as predicted. How does the NAO look as we move ahead and is it as "predictable" as some of the other players? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Pattern change has started as predicted. How does the NAO look as we move ahead and is it as "predictable" as some of the other players? NAO looks positive through the foreseeable future. There is a possibility it flips negative in the latter half of the month, but that is subject to many variables including a potential stratospheric warming event that hasn't happened yet but is forecasted to happen within the next 10 days. The stronger that warming event verifies, the better chance that the strong vortex that has been responsible for the +NAO gets broken up. We won't know much more about the NAO possibilities until then, so it's pure speculation at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 NAO looks positive through the foreseeable future. There is a possibility it flips negative in the latter half of the month, but that is subject to many variables including a potential stratospheric warming event that hasn't happened yet but is forecasted to happen within the next 10 days. The stronger that warming event verifies, the better chance that the strong vortex that has been responsible for the +NAO gets broken up. We won't know much more about the NAO possibilities until then, so it's pure speculation at the moment. I think we'll know how strongly this season will recover based upon how effective that sratospheric warming is. If we are to achieve the upper and of the recovery alalogs, such as 1958, 1966, 1969, or 2005, then we will need to see that warming provide the impetus for the development of a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Folks need to give up on the idea the NAO goes neggy this winter. it's just not going to happen. We'll need to rely on the EPO and PNA ridge if we want to continue winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Folks need to give up on the idea the NAO goes neggy this winter. it's just not going to happen. We'll need to rely on the EPO and PNA ridge if we want to continue winter That is premature...especially in an el Nino season. Even the dead ratter of 2007 saw that flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is premature...especially in an el Nino season. Even the dead ratter of 2007 saw that flip. Yeah agreed...it is ridiculous to just make that proclaimation without any solid evidence. It is definitely possible that the NAO stays positive, but "it's just not going to happen" isn't a satisfactory explanation of why. We've had previous winters where a potent vortex in that area finally got dislodged...2004-2005 probably being the most notorious recent winter that succeeded, and it took until the Archambault Blizzard of 2005 in late January to flip the NAO that winter. Conversely, some El Nino winters never did flip such as 1994-1995. It is too early to say with any confidence what this winter will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yeah agreed...it is ridiculous to just make that proclaimation without any solid evidence. It is definitely possible that the NAO stays positive, but "it's just not going to happen" isn't a satisfactory explanation of why. We've had previous winters where a potent vortex in that area finally got dislodged...2004-2005 probably being the most notorious recent winter that succeeded, and it took until the Archambault Blizzard of 2005 in late January to flip the NAO that winter. Conversely, some El Nino winters never did flip such as 1994-1995. It is too early to say with any confidence what this winter will do. Yes, it is possible that it just doesn't happen, but simple persistence doesn't cut it for me. We should know in about two weeks which way this season is headed. BTW, weren't seasons like '94-'95 vastly different in the north Pacific? I know back in October at least, it was pretty clear that this season fit into to the more favorable catagorey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Folks need to give up on the idea the NAO goes neggy this winter. it's just not going to happen. We'll need to rely on the EPO and PNA ridge if we want to continue winter Well if that is the case plan on weeks long torches occurring at times this winter. EPO may not get it done alone and EPO and neg PNA is definitely possible at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yes, it is possible that it just doesn't happen, but simple persistence doesn't cut it for me. We should know in about two weeks which way this season is headed. BTW, weren't seasons like '94-'95 vastly different in the north Pacific? I know back in October at least, it was pretty clear that this season fit into to the more favorable catagorey. Yes. This season has certainly resembled more favorable El Ninos in the N PAC. We briefly broke down the AK ridging in December this year, but it has come back and looks to be with us for the foreseeable future. The Atlantic has been putrid though, no sugar coating that. But years like 2004-2005 and 1957-1958 had similar Atlantic patterns early on but were able to flip it around. The difference is that 2004 was able to sneak in the 12/26 and early January snow events despite that Atlantic pattern...this year and 1957 were skunked. I think we will rally this winter for sure in the snowfall deparment, but the NAO will probably be the difference between a 1957-1958 type rally and a more muted rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Gotta be careful how I phrase the question, but at this point what factors, if any, point toward the PV being dislodged in such a way that it would cause the NAO to go negative? Are there any current atmospheric parallels to the flip in 2005? Are there any current atmospheric parallels to 1994/95? Or, is it just plain different from either? I'd like to know how the NH atmosphere looks today in comparison with those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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