January 2015 Pattern Discussion

[wokeupthisam]

Yeah we really need a -NAO to call it a "great" pattern. I'm hoping one can form in the latter half of January like 2005 did, but it's not going to be easy.

 

But in the meantime, we've got a very good PAC pattern to give us chances.

Would be nice to see the 'Sudden' in 'SSW' to help with the blocking...

[ORH_wxman]

Would be nice to see the 'Sudden' in 'SSW' to help with the blocking...

 

 

There's a possibility of that...a warming is going to occur over the next 8-12 days, but it doesn't look strong enough at the moment to do a lot of damage. But these things can get stronger with little warning. So it's something we'll have to watch carefully. It could be what we need to turn the tables on the NAO later in January.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z para is back to showing the system for the 4th cutting underneath us. Nice snow event for all with that look

[Damage In Tolland]

And we snow more after. The main low leaves with a second piece of energy. Weenie run today.

And it makes the most sense given the pressing cold in Canada and -EPO. It may not happen exactly like that..but the days of warm, cutting dew point laden rainers are over. I'm excited for the first time in quite some time.  Looks like we reload past day 10 too

[Ginx snewx]

And it makes the most sense given the pressing cold in Canada and -EPO. It may not happen exactly like that..but the days of warm, cutting dew point laden rainers are over. I'm excited for the first time in quite some time. Looks like we reload past day 10 too

some how I don't see the Euro Op coming to fruition in this fashion. Ryan Maue tweeted this meteogram for NYC based on the Euro. Seems off the rails.

[ORH_wxman]

And it makes the most sense given the pressing cold in Canada and -EPO. It may not happen exactly like that..but the days of warm, cutting dew point laden rainers are over. I'm excited for the first time in quite some time.  Looks like we reload past day 10 too

 

 

You can't rule out cutters without the big downstream blocking.

 

I agree that the -EPO will help some because it spreads a good cold foundation to the north, so if the storm shows any sign of weakness, the sfc will tend to redevelop to our south...however (and this part is big), if the upper energy ejects out at the right time and in potent fashion, then it doesn't care if we have a cold airmass over us, it will send this sucker right up through BUF.

 

Don't fall into the fallacy that frigid armasses mean no cutters. Look at January 1994 for no better example. Monster -EPO but almost zero blocking in the Atlantic that month. We saw this last year too at times.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice Ginx. -12 to -5F in Central Park...that would be great, but methinks that would moderate quite a bit

[Ginx snewx]

Nice Ginx. -12 to -5F in Central Park...that would be great, but methinks that would moderate quite a bit

yea pretty insane and highly unlikely

[SnowGoose69]

Nice Ginx. -12 to -5F in Central Park...that would be great, but methinks that would moderate quite a bit

Central Park is never going below 0 ever again, I'm almost sure of that

[cny rider]

Thank you to the mets for answering my question above.  Makes perfect sense now.

[Damage In Tolland]

You can't rule out cutters without the big downstream blocking.

I agree that the -EPO will help some because it spreads a good cold foundation to the north, so if the storm shows any sign of weakness, the sfc will tend to redevelop to our south...however (and this part is big), if the upper energy ejects out at the right time and in potent fashion, then it doesn't care if we have a cold airmass over us, it will send this sucker right up through BUF.

Don't fall into the fallacy that frigid armasses mean no cutters. Look at January 1994 for no better example. Monster -EPO but almost zero blocking in the Atlantic that month. We saw this last year too at times.

Well yeah that's what I kind of meant. Maybe this storm or another still cuts in the true sense.. But it's not going to drag up 55/55 air and rains like the last few is what I meant. And they would more likely than not start off as several inches of snow to ice. Befire any changeover. There were some ppl sts earlier talking about warm rains to the border . That just isn't going to happen with -EPO. People seem to associate cutters with all rain and warmth . In the Dec pattern we just went thru sure,, but not this new pattern

[HoarfrostHubb]

Central Park is never going below 0 ever again, I'm almost sure of that

They hit -15 in 1934....but wasn't that an error? Plus we are in a different climate

Anyway, would be nice to drag some of that down from Canada

[SnowGoose69]

They hit -15 in 1934....but wasn't that an error? Plus we are in a different climate

Anyway, would be nice to drag some of that down from Canada

No I've seen the charts it was legit but it's likely with the urbanization today they wouldn't sniff that, they need a very specific setup to go below zero, a snow pack and a due north gusty wind to ensure the heat island is mitigated they cannot radiate to get below zero so calm doesn't cut it

[ORH_wxman]

Well yeah that's what I kind of meant. Maybe this storm or another still cuts in the true sense.. But it's not going to drag up 55/55 air and rains like the last few is what I meant. And they would more likely than not start off as several inches of snow to ice. Befire any changeover. There were some ppl sts earlier talking about warm rains to the border . That just isn't going to happen with -EPO. People seem to associate cutters with all rain and warmth . In the Dec pattern we just went thru sure,, but not this new pattern

 

 

Why would a cutter not drag up 55F air? It did it in Jan 1994 and did it last year in the midst of a big -EPO pattern.

 

I'm not predicting a cutter right now...but you cannot rule it out. And if a storm rips up through BUF and ART, then yes, we are going to get 50s for temps.

 

I agree a cutter with a very cold airmass ahead of it is unlikely to be 100% rain, but that doesn't mean it can't warm up into the 50s eventually.

[wokeupthisam]

You can't rule out cutters without the big downstream blocking.

 

I agree that the -EPO will help some because it spreads a good cold foundation to the north, so if the storm shows any sign of weakness, the sfc will tend to redevelop to our south...however (and this part is big), if the upper energy ejects out at the right time and in potent fashion, then it doesn't care if we have a cold airmass over us, it will send this sucker right up through BUF.

 

Don't fall into the fallacy that frigid armasses mean no cutters. Look at January 1994 for no better example. Monster -EPO but almost zero blocking in the Atlantic that month. We saw this last year too at times.

You're right, winter of '82 or '83 living in NE Mass and under brutal cold, nearly -20 in the am and the TV forecast was rain at night - I thought, "No way this cold yields..."  Sure enough, the cutter scoured out the cold and it rained that night.  Never forgot that lesson.

[powderfreak]

I don't remember the HECS run other than snowing one around d10 but not the same system? Maybe I didn't look closely enough....

 

I can go back and find the the run on weatherbell, but you wouldn't really know it unless you looked at the QPF along with the set-up.  Yesterday's 00z ECM had over 2.0" QPF of overrunning followed by coastal storm for BWI through NJ, with 1"+ along the south coast of New England, all which would've been snow with tight thermal packing.

 

It wasn't like a classic 980mb bomb...just a 24-hour over-running followed by a like 998mb surface low passing underneath that was super-juicy.

[SnowGoose69]

Why would a cutter not drag up 55F air? It did it in Jan 1994 and did it last year in the midst of a big -EPO pattern.

I'm not predicting a cutter right now...but you cannot rule it out. And if a storm rips up through BUF and ART, then yes, we are going to get 50s for temps.

I agree a cutter with a very cold airmass ahead of it is unlikely to be 100% rain, but that doesn't mean it can't warm up into the 50s eventually.

Not only did it do that but I think some places were below 0 that morning

[Damage In Tolland]

Why would a cutter not drag up 55F air? It did it in Jan 1994 and did it last year in the midst of a big -EPO pattern.

I'm not predicting a cutter right now...but you cannot rule it out. And if a storm rips up through BUF and ART, then yes, we are going to get 50s for temps.

I agree a cutter with a very cold airmass ahead of it is unlikely to be 100% rain, but that doesn't mean it can't warm up into the 50s eventually.

I didn't mean it can't happen, but that it very unlikely if the new regime plays out as modeled as we think. I just don't see this pattern being conducive to big wound up cutters ripping up the ST Lawrence River valley.. I like when I see pressing , oozing low level cold

[ORH_wxman]

I didn't mean it can't happen, but that it very unlikely if the new regime plays out as modeled as we think. I just don't see this pattern being conducive to big wound up cutters ripping up the ST Lawrence River valley.. I like when I see pressing , oozing low level cold

 

I would agree more if we had at least some hint of a -NAO...but we don't.

 

It's a better pattern than December, but you 'nor anyone else should be surprised if we get a torching cutter mixed in somewhere. Hopefully it doesn't happen and we keep the energy ejecting out in less robust pieces...or we have well-timed confluence to the north

[weathafella]

Jan 94 did cut once but even that yielded 3 inches imby on the backside. All the others bled out to the extent that we booked a lot of snow and some sleet.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It seems to some degree models are pushing this back a little bit? Maybe I'm wrong on that, but could that be possibly why the euro and para have shown colder solutions?

[leo1000]

The only hope it seems is the MJO which is forecasted by mid-late January to go into phase 7 than to phase 8 by February.

[Damage In Tolland]

Jan 94 did cut once but even that yielded 3 inches imby on the backside. All the others bled out to the extent that we booked a lot of snow and some sleet.

Not saying this will be like that special time period, but the general theme is kind of how I envision it . Net gains no matter what

[ORH_wxman]

Jan 94 did cut once but even that yielded 3 inches imby on the backside. All the others bled out to the extent that we booked a lot of snow and some sleet.

 

1/28/94 didn't give any backside snow. But 1/17-18 did.

 

Regardless, we shouldn't be surprised by a cutter in this pattern...they are certainly a possibility. They would be much much tougher to come by if we had a stout -NAO.

 

 

I still like the pattern though and I've said that many times. It should give us multiple chances.

[78Blizzard]

It seems to some degree models are pushing this back a little bit? Maybe I'm wrong on that, but could that be possibly why the euro and para have shown colder solutions?

I agree.  There seems to be a 12-15 hour difference between the GFS and the Para.  Also, the GFS trended much further east from the 12z run.  Trends are our friend.

[powderfreak]

18z GFS is quite the weenie run.  Nice snow to ice/rain for southern sections and all snow up north.

 

 

 

 

Then the same exact thing happens a few days later.  Remember this is the H85 temp at the end of the interval, after the precip has fallen...so this would be snow/ice down in SNE, too, maybe ending as drizzle or something.  It would be much better than this snapshot makes some think.   There's that 07-08 SWFE pattern many were mentioning lately.

 

 

[FRWEATHA]

I thought I read somewhere that below normal SSTs in the N Atlantic promotes a +NAO. Is this why the NAO seems so persistently + last year and this year?

[donsutherland1]

some how I don't see the Euro Op coming to fruition in this fashion. Ryan Maue tweeted this meteogram for NYC based on the Euro. Seems off the rails.

There's something wrong with the algorithm in that meteogram. Last winter, it showed numerous cases of cold that would challenge or exceed the 1934 record. The 2 meter forecasts on the ECMWF were much warmer and wound up closer to what actually occurred. In this case, the 12z ECMWF had a 2 meter figure of -17.3°C (1°F) at 240 hours.

[CT Rain]

There's something wrong with the algorithm in that meteogram. Last winter, it showed numerous cases of cold that would challenge or exceed the 1934 record. The 2 meter forecasts on the ECMWF were much warmer and wound up closer to what actually occurred. In this case, the 12z ECMWF had a 2 meter figure of -17.3°C (1°F) at 240 hours.

 

I think it may be a resolution issue on the maps your using... on the 0.125 deg high res Euro I see -10F or so over NYC. I've noticed the overnight 2m temps really struggle on the Euro when the model has snow on the ground. 

[donsutherland1]

U agree

That it's "off the rails" as you put it, yes I agree. It's unfortunate that after last winter, it wasn't fixed.

 

Unfortunately, now that it is available on social media, there will be a misconception that the ECMWF overstated the cold if the subzero readings don't materialize when, in fact, the ECMWF has not called for subzero readings in NYC.