SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The mean brushes us with QPF, but probably from skewed members. I really think the bigger deal is Mon-Tues next week. I wouldn't hold hope for Saturday. Just my guess. It's actually the opposite looking at the individuals. The spread is towards the west and there are a few members that either don't have the storm at all or are way east which pulls the mean east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's actually the opposite looking at the individuals. The spread is towards the west and there are a few members that either don't have the storm at all or are way east which pulls the mean east. Yeah, I think Saturday is really gonna be hard to do right now, Better chance next week with PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hint of storminess towards the first week of February to end the 12z euro ens. Ensembles overall pretty similar to op run for last week of January for those other threats. Gfs ensembles are further offshore for the bomb next week but the follow up storm looks like it would be a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 January isn't even close to being done. The month has clearly blown chunks. There's 12 days left in the month ffs and every reliable met said pattern is better by the last week. Month might be closer to ending than it was, but that has nothing to do with the threats. Pattern is not the same as the one earlier in the month so anyone claiming that is plain wrong. we don't even have a handle on the clipper yet alone 12 days from now The clipper is OTS dude give it up until Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The clipper is OTS dude give it up until Feb.When its snowing thursday and you feel like a dip I'll bump this.not to mention its not like the last 13 days of will be clipper or bust. Think you missed the entire point of my post but OKAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 When its snowing thursday and you feel like a dip I'll bump this. not to mention its not like the last 13 days of will be clipper or bust. Think you missed the entire point of my post but OKAY. There's really no legitimate threat to track as of now for the forseable future regardless of how good the pattern is. We'll get our regularly scheduled coating from this Thurs. System, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There's really no legitimate threat to track as of now for the forseable future regardless of how good the pattern is. We'll get our regularly scheduled coating from this Thurs. System, but that's about it. There's no basis in saying we are done until February except for emotional weenie-ism. It's very possible we don't get anything the rest of January, but just saying it as if it is truth with nothing to back it up is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don S when I asked him about late jan early feb The cold toward the end of January and the start of February looks to be on course. It also appears that the subtropical jet might become quite a bit more active for that period. But the state of the AO and PNA will be important if one is looking for a significant or major snowstorm. Some statistics for Boston (1/15-2/15): 10" or more snowfall (15 cases): AO- 67% PNA+ 80% AO-/PNA+ 53% 12" or more snowfall (10 cases): AO- 80% PNA+ 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There's no basis in saying we are done until February except for emotional weenie-ism. It's very possible we don't get anything the rest of January, but just saying it as if it is truth with nothing to back it up is weak. My basis is that cuurently, there's no op model that consistently shows any kind of hit for Sne within a 7 day time frame. In order to believe there's a legitimate threat, I have to at least see an op model consistently showing a hit within a 7 day time lead. In my career as a weenie, whenever I have followed this principle I've often been right regarding the outcome, regardless of whether I post it or keep it to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My basis is that cuurently, there's no op model that consistently shows any kind of hit for Sne within a 7 day time frame. In order to believe there's a legitimate threat, I have to at least see an op model consistently showing a hit within a 7 day time lead. In my career as a weenie, whenever I have followed this principle I've often been right regarding the outcome, regardless of whether I post it or keep it to myself. That would be at least a half-decent reason if we only had 7 days left in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That would be at least a half-decent reason if we only had 7 days left in the month. Lol ...I should add that based on what I've been reading ( from you and others), is that the last threat of the month is on the 27th, so the the rest of the month is mute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol ...I should add that based on what I've been reading ( from you and others), is that the last threat of the month is on the 27th, so the the rest of the month is mute. I wouldn't say the last threat of the month is the 26-27th storm...there could be something around the 30th as well. But that is 11 days out. Regardless, it's never good to assume things are iron clad when talking about medium range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I wouldn't say the last threat of the month is the 26-27th storm...there could be something around the 30th as well. But that is 11 days out. Regardless, it's never good to assume things are iron clad when talking about medium range forecasting. You're right and perhaps I've a little unreasonable lately. It's partly that, yes, I've been a frustrated weenie lately and have stepped off the ledge some. I'll stop and let you guys figure it out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You're right and perhaps I've a little unreasonable lately. It's partly that, yes, I've been a frustrated weenie lately and have stepped off the ledge some. I'll stop and let you guys figure it out. Thanks. Well until a big PNA ridge is actually established , our "storm chances " have had the same luck as a awkward short broke poor dancing yellow teeth balding shlep, (at a singles bar). We know that blocking is as likely as Kevin dawning an Afro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don S when I asked him about late jan early febThe cold toward the end of January and the start of February looks to be on course. It also appears that the subtropical jet might become quite a bit more active for that period. But the state of the AO and PNA will be important if one is looking for a significant or major snowstorm.Some statistics for Boston (1/15-2/15):10" or more snowfall (15 cases):AO- 67%PNA+ 80%AO-/PNA+ 53%12" or more snowfall (10 cases):AO- 80%PNA+ 100% Still scientifically a paltry sample size. People have to realize why things seemingly so lined up go wrong. When you have a sample size in the thousands or more it's a lot easier to make stronger assumptions. Pilot studies with n of 40 are often refuted when n goes to 25,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still scientifically a paltry sample size. People have to realize why things seemingly so lined up go wrong. When you have a sample size in the thousands or more it's a lot easier to make stronger assumptions. Pilot studies with n of 40 are often refuted when n goes to 25,000. I agree. One should be cautious about the smaller sample sizes. Unfortunately, as the daily teleconnections data only goes back to 1950, the pool is very small. In any case, the PNA looks to be positive through the weekend. Hopefully, the Boston area will cash in (and we'll et another storm for the sample). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I like the post in the medium term thread. Cold going forward. Nice read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hpc 2 days in a row bm tracks. Qpf for 7 days under an inch for me to 2 inches sema. Quite the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yep Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 10m 10 minutes ago Another PV displacement end of Jan,start of Feb with -EPO and transient north Atlantic ridge. Big storm threat for CONUS with split flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks active heading towards the end of the month into Feb too. Pretty much as we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is very very interesting LR, I mean very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is very very interesting LR, I mean very Do give details. What does this say about the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is very very interesting LR, I mean very Agreed, even if this week doesn't pan out, looks like ton of opportunities come end of month early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Do give details. What does this say about the pattern?Bananas,muff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Bananas,muff said Ensembles look pretty damn good longer range. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Boring until about the 22nd, looks to me like we start seeing some real storms after the 22-24th period and it continues mostly cold and stormy right into February. I think all and all it will play out maybe a week later than would be normal/what's as expected by guys like Cohen. Bump because Cohen took a beating again in some circles but overall his data will once again be a very reliable indicator for the "second" part of winter. It seemed clear as day to me by about 1/7 that the big flip was during this few day period, and I'm glad it seems to have worked out. Does anyone know where ALL of Cohen's stuff is published for reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bump because Cohen took a beating again in some circles but overall his data will once again be a very reliable indicator for the "second" part of winter. It seemed clear as day to me by about 1/7 that the big flip was during this few day period, and I'm glad it seems to have worked out. Does anyone know where ALL of Cohen's stuff is published for reference? We were a minority for sure Here ya go https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bump because Cohen took a beating again in some circles but overall his data will once again be a very reliable indicator for the "second" part of winter. It seemed clear as day to me by about 1/7 that the big flip was during this few day period, and I'm glad it seems to have worked out. Does anyone know where ALL of Cohen's stuff is published for reference? Yeah blew chunks for the first half though. Does a good second half performance blow away the abomination of the first (from a forecast perspective)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bump because Cohen took a beating again in some circles but overall his data will once again be a very reliable indicator for the "second" part of winter. It seemed clear as day to me by about 1/7 that the big flip was during this few day period, and I'm glad it seems to have worked out. Does anyone know where ALL of Cohen's stuff is published for reference? Agree regarding the pattern shift; I've also been saying since earlier this month that we'd see the changes occur around the 20th with a gradual AO decrease. Cohen's forecast is verified based upon the AO mean for the DJF if I remember correctly. So if a negative AO over the next several weeks is greater in magnitude than the positive AO of the first half of winter, and the mean ends up negative, the forecast will have verified. I don't recall if there was a specific magnitude predicted (e.g., -1.5SD mean), but I think if the expectation was -AO in the means for DJF, that still has a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah blew chunks for the first half though. Does a good second half performance blow away the abomination of the first (from a forecast perspective)? I don't think it does. Plus, this is assuming that the AO even says negative for February which isn't a guarantee. Though I'd favor it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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