WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It seems to me that we have a decent shot starting in these next few weeks. If that fails, it may be time to fold. Oh yes, if we fail to get much of anything in these next few weeks....it would more than likely spell the demise of this winter for all intents and purposes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS ensembles would be absolutely frigid the last couple of days of the month. that would be "ideal" delivery for NYS/NE cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'd rather have some snow, than have record breaking Frigid temps. If we can have both, then count me in!! One or the other, give me the snow...especially at this point. My snowfall to date in Interior CT is 8 inches. Still ZERO Blocking showing up on the GFS Ensembles?? Probably right?? That is disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS ensembles would be absolutely frigid the last couple of days of the month. that would be "ideal" delivery for NYS/NE cold. Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'd rather have some snow, than have record breaking Frigid temps. If we can have both, then count me in!! One or the other, give me the snow...especially at this point. My snowfall to date in Interior CT is 8 inches. Still ZERO Blocking showing up on the GFS Ensembles?? Probably right?? That is disturbing. Weather is going to do what it wants. Doesn't matter what you prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Weather is going to do what it wants. Doesn't matter what you prefer.i prefer snow but this year has been so slow. The teleconnections look good after Sunday's system. Euro had a nice storm on day 10 but that's too far to pay any mind hopefully we get a big blizzard soon otherwise we'd better cancel it and move on until next year. Too many sleepless weenie nights for nothing! Got 5 inches here so far this year and it was just the appertiZzer! Waiting for main course 16-24 inch KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Weather is going to do what it wants. Doesn't matter what you prefer. Gee thanks for letting me know that...I wouldn't have realized that!! Hopefully we head to that promised land you were talking about yesterday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 euro ensembles similar to the GEFS with a really cold look later in the run. cold overall...but frigid late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Gee thanks for letting me know that...I wouldn't have realized that!! Hopefully we head to that promised land you were talking about yesterday?? If you think about it for awhile.. Seem's simple.. But once you accept it, your free lol Time will only tell if we reach the promised land. Nothing much has changed. Still looks wintry with storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 4m4 minutes ago If the 18z GFS stratosphere forecast is correct (anticyclone at 10mb over Greenland), it's time to start hyping up Feb. 0 replies0 retweets4 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite4 More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 48s49 seconds ago @antmasiello the parallels with 2003 this run are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Weeklies? Have had little to no skill this winter, D 11-15's been tough enough for the ECMWF. Tonight's run indicates the brutal cold through the beginning of February w/ blocking across the top, then breaks down the pattern completely by February 4th. Progression doesn't make much sense given other indicators, but as said, take it with an enormous grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 They looked cold through week 3. Still +PNA week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Crazy cold week 2, record month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The overall pattern in the 11-15 day and beyond features a pretty big block in the AK and Bering Sea region. Technical differences arise in whether or not a weak trough will form in between higher heights in the Bering Sea and the west coast, and whether or not the PNA tries to remain +. IMO it is not a dry look at all right now. As usual, a rather +NAO will mean the chance for cutters are there, but it could be an interesting time starting next week. The EC ensemble is most bullish with the cold as it has the best blocking orientation. Even if we lose some west coast riding at some point, the Bering Sea block is noteworthy and keeping the cold locked into Canada. Someting that anomalous this far out is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GEFS are all over the place right now in the 11-15 day, while the EC seems in good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The overall pattern in the 11-15 day and beyond features a pretty big block in the AK and Bering Sea region. Technical differences arise in whether or not a weak trough will form in between higher heights in the Bering Sea and the west coast, and whether or not the PNA tries to remain +. IMO it is not a dry look at all right now. As usual, a rather +NAO will mean the chance for cutters are there, but it could be an interesting time starting next week. The EC ensemble is most bullish with the cold as it has the best blocking orientation. Even if we lose some west coast riding at some point, the Bering Sea block is noteworthy and keeping the cold locked into Canada. Someting that anomalous this far out is very impressive. When we step back and look at this month the theme will be cold cold cold. Once the pattern changed (yes it did chnge) it has stayed cold. Several below zero mornings already and that isnt going to change for a few weeks it seems. I give up on the NAO. At some point you just think it should change but then it doesn't. Some other major hemispheric driver is going to have to shift to get an NAO...it isn't going to just show up some day. Meanwhile, reasonable that the pattern stays cold and gets wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GEFS,Can Ens and EPS all indicate cold through day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 When we step back and look at this month the theme will be cold cold cold. Once the pattern changed (yes it did chnge) it has stayed cold. Several below zero mornings already and that isnt going to change for a few weeks it seems. I give up on the NAO. At some point you just think it should change but then it doesn't. Some other major hemispheric driver is going to have to shift to get an NAO...it isn't going to just show up some day. Meanwhile, reasonable that the pattern stays cold and gets wetter. That's what intrigues me. It's been a cold January with way below normal snow imby so far. I can't imagine the lack of snow holds but if it somehow does the idea of a cold dry winter with near record low snowfall is of interest in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I give up on the NAO. At some point you just think it should change but then it doesn't. Some other major hemispheric driver is going to have to shift to get an NAO...it isn't going to just show up some day. Like a ssw-induced AO regime change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's what intrigues me. It's been a cold January with way below normal snow imby so far. I can't imagine the lack of snow holds but if it somehow does the idea of a cold dry winter with near record low snowfall is of interest in and of itself. I've been on the winter just staying C & D train..with small systems. See nothing thru day 15 that changes that thinking. It sure beats the alternative..but more snow sure would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Kevin, you need to look at models for once. C'mon man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Kevin, you need to look at models for once. C'mon man. I'm really tired of you saying that to me. I look at them every single day. At least the ones i have access to. That was my interpretation ..Maybe it was wrong..maybe it wasn't. I don't see a super snowy look that you see..I see persistence and C & D winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Cohen still sticking to his guns on a -AO and maybe -NAO back half of winter. Caveats with +NAO persistence though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm really tired of you saying that to me. I look at them every single day. At least the ones i have access to. That was my interpretation ..Maybe it was wrong..maybe it wasn't. I don't see a super snowy look that you see..I see persistence and C & D winning Then I honestly don'y know how you think cold and dry. I mean that from the bottom of my heart. I'm not being a dink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Cohen still sticking to his guns on a -AO and maybe -NAO back half of winter. Caveats with +NAO persistence though lol. He basically has said the same thing since the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 He basically has said the same thing since the beginning of December.Maybe 2 weeks behind now? He cited the SSW from last week as his reasoning, and said that even though it wasn't quantitatively impressive it still was a significant disturbance of the PV.If the upcoming -AO does take hold and stays dominant through Feb, and the NAO shortly follows suit, we will look back on his seasonal forecast positively. But those are big IFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Maybe 2 weeks behind now? He cited the SSW from last week as his reasoning, and said that even though it wasn't quantitatively impressive it still was a significant disturbance of the PV. If the upcoming -AO does take hold and stays dominant through Feb, and the NAO shortly follows suit, we will look back on his seasonal forecast positively. But those are big IFs. Eventually though, I think the SAI value loses a little credibility in terms of switching things. For instance if it doesn't change until later in Feb, then I think you have to entertain other natural causes besides any SAI. SAI should be doing its dirty work already. Given the solar weather, a back half warming is favored anyways, regardless of SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Eventually though, I think the SAI value loses a little credibility in terms of switching things. For instance if it doesn't change until later in Feb, then I think you have to entertain other natural causes besides any SAI. SAI should be doing its dirty work already. Given the solar weather, a back half warming is favored anyways, regardless of SAI. I totally agree, but the -QBO and solar maximum were always two signals complementary to the SAI suggesting a SSW was likely in the second half of winter. He is saying that the SSW that took place last week should take a couple weeks to propagate and will therefore flip the AO negative by the last week of January. From there, it should stay predominantly negative for the following 4-6 weeks. That's what needs to happen for the SAI to not "fail" as a meaningful prediction tool IMO. The final AO value for DJF is important too, but if it misses the mark because the timing was a couple weeks late and the AO stays negative into March, it doesn't invalidate the research. In fact, even if we get a raging +AO for the rest of winter, it doesn't mean the premise is faulty...rather, it means that it is an incomplete picture and we don't know what we are missing (but we would have a really good place to start looking). Imagine if Einstein threw out all his theories because someone observed something in the universe that didn't line up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I totally agree, but the -QBO and solar maximum were always two signals complementary to the SAI suggesting a SSW was likely in the second half of winter. He is saying that the SSW that took place last week should take a couple weeks to propagate and will therefore flip the AO negative by the last week of January. From there, it should stay predominantly negative for the following 4-6 weeks. That's what needs to happen for the SAI to not "fail" as a meaningful prediction tool IMO. The final AO value for DJF is important too, but if it misses the mark because the timing was a couple weeks late and the AO stays negative into March, it doesn't invalidate the research. In fact, even if we get a raging +AO for the rest of winter, it doesn't mean the premise is faulty...rather, it means that it is an incomplete picture and we don't know what we are missing (but we would have a really good place to start looking). Imagine if Einstein threw out all his theories because someone observed something in the universe that didn't line up perfectly. seems to me rather than AO his theory works better for -EPO, bottom line is seems obvious that Eurasian deep snow means torchy winters are very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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