Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 thaw continues to look rather short-lived, which is nice. might be a week's worth of a flattening of the flow but just based on the look of the op and ens runs it doesn't look like 5 to 7 days of "warmth" - maybe a bit more of an up/down period before bottom drops out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Euro almost showed it in clown range. Verbatim we'd get clocked probably but slightly earlier or west and that is a messy system with more rain. This is 1/23-24 Yeah, just pointing it out for the jumpers so we don't above to hear it..although we probably would anyways..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Seems like only 1 day near 40 on Sunday and then right back into the freezer next week. So at least we avoided that mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I deleted the previous post thinking that there was not enough support for the projected teleconnections. weatherbell based euro teleconnections seem to be bringing the PNA a bit more negative and also bring the NAO a little bit more negative after MLK. Regardless, I appreciate the responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I deleted the previous post thinking that there was not enough support for the projected teleconnections. weatherbell based euro teleconnections seem to be bringing the PNA a bit more negative and also bring the NAO a little bit more negative after MLK. Regardless, I appreciate the responses. I'm not sure if this is specifically relevant to this thread, but can anyone possibly mention some bigger snow storms that have occurred over the years based on the the current projected pattern going forward with a negative EPO positive PNA but a possibly stout positive NAO. I brought it back for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I deleted the previous post thinking that there was not enough support for the projected teleconnections. weatherbell based euro teleconnections seem to be bringing the PNA a bit more negative and also bring the NAO a little bit more negative after MLK. Regardless, I appreciate the responses. Regardless of what the actual PNA index number is, you still want to see those ridge spikes. The state of the Aleutian Low (or lack thereof) plays a big role in what the actual index number is and may not be representative of the ridge spikes. But usually it correlates well which is why we use it. The spikes are more likely to happen as well when the Aleutian Low is stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I didn't mean to start a twitter slap fight , Tru dat. Sbos will respond on banter thread. 24/25 get ready for the snow train that's coming. Drumbeat is clearer each day. Late Siberian high just kicked this off a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 "Am I the only one who isn't super-over-the-top excited about this upcoming winter's snow potential? I mean everything looks awesome, but things look so good that it can only lead to dissappointment. At this point the weenies will be upset if we get an average to slightly above average winter. Just setting ourselves up for a let down." I posted the above on Novemeber 15th.......little did I know that it would be this bad so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro ensembles continue to look nice. little -pna mixed in there for a time too which given the epo would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If we are throwing out some educated WAGs for storm threat dates (beyond the ugly anafront deal next week), there's the 1/21 clipper which may have trouble getting under our latitude, but there is a chance it happens....then we have 1/23-24 and then another around 1/26. EC ensembles look more active in the final 10 days of the month. I agree with Scott that it doesn't look nearly as much like the doldrums of early January despite some similarities. I think the amplitude of the ridging over AK may help us and the PV doesn't seem quite so inelastic to the point of just grinding everything to a pulp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If we are throwing out some educated WAGs for storm threat dates (beyond the ugly anafront deal next week), there's the 1/21 clipper which may have trouble getting under our latitude, but there is a chance it happens....then we have 1/23-24 and then another around 1/26. EC ensembles look more active in the final 10 days of the month. I agree with Scott that it doesn't look nearly as much like the doldrums of early January despite some similarities. I think the amplitude of the ridging over AK may help us and the PV doesn't seem quite so inelastic to the point of just grinding everything to a pulp. That, and some troughing in the SW could help. Almost reminds me more of last year. Some ridging over the Pole too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Any ens support for the Monday snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That, and some troughing in the SW could help. Almost reminds me more of last year. Some ridging over the Pole too. was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That, and some troughing in the SW could help. Almost reminds me more of last year. Some ridging over the Pole too. Yeah the ridge-bridge always helps a bit...it can behave a little bit like a weak block...it slows things down a touch. Also, it keeps showing that weakness in the NAO regions...esp the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Any ens support for the Monday snow? Yes, however, it doesn't look that good, maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm keeping expectations low for now. I'm more focused on beyond that time period in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes, however, it doesn't look that good, maybe it will look better as we get closer, but I'm keeping expectations low for now. I'm more focused on beyond that time period in this thread. At least it's got some support..so we know as unlikely as it is..that the op run wasn't totally off it's rocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I have seen that EPS look before, hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I have seen that EPS look before, hang on Going to be more fun heading forward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 What a cold pattern. With no warmth in sight save for 3 hours on Sunday this will go down as a very cold month,, but also very dry #SNE Monthly avg temp departures for January so far: Boston -3.1° , Providence -3.6°, Worcester -2.7° & Hartford -3.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What a cold pattern. With no warmth in sight save for 3 hours on Sunday this will go down as a very cold month,, but also very dry #SNE Monthly avg temp departures for January so far: Boston -3.1° , Providence -3.6°, Worcester -2.7° & Hartford -3.1° Not as below up here, but still below. -0.3F BTV, -1.3F MVL, -1.9F MSS, -2.9F MPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Not as below up here, but still below. -0.3F BTV, -1.3F MVL, -1.9F MSS, -2.9F MPV MPV continues to average about 1.5F lower departures than MVL. The climo norms are listed as the same despite MPV being 500ft higher...I still don't understand how that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 MPV continues to average about 1.5F lower departures than MVL. The climo norms are listed as the same despite MPV being 500ft higher...I still don't understand how that's possible. Ha I've given up on that one, we'll call it NCDC magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 As it stands right now on most guidance, I think the late January pattern is the most promising of the season thus far for snow events. Both the GEFS and the EC ensembles have two solid western ridge spikes...one around 1/21 and the other in the 1/24-25 timeframe. These offer the chance for the system to amplify down the eastern face of the ridge. The first event is a clipper looking system that has been trending south and now several pieces of guidance try and redevelop it underneath SNE...the ugly anafront "event" before it would probably play some sort of role too. The 2nd threat would be a larger system more in phase with the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. as it looks now...obviously you cannot get very specific. These things can change. But you try and look for "windows of enhanced probability" so to speak and those ridge spikes are what caused enhanced probability. Beyond that, ensembles get too diffuse to really even tell PNA spikes, but there actually looks like there could be some weak ridging into Greenland/Iceland after the 25th. What I really like about the EC ensembles is that the ridge throughout the run is predominately on the west coast and up into NW Territories....which is a good spot. GEFS is a bit west later in the period but still a very cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 As it stands right now on most guidance, I think the late January pattern is the most promising of the season thus far for snow events. Both the GEFS and the EC ensembles have two solid western ridge spikes...one around 1/21 and the other in the 1/24-25 timeframe. These offer the chance for the system to amplify down the eastern face of the ridge. The first event is a clipper looking system that has been trending south and now several pieces of guidance try and redevelop it underneath SNE...the ugly anafront "event" before it would probably play some sort of role too. The 2nd threat would be a larger system more in phase with the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. as it looks now...obviously you cannot get very specific. These things can change. But you try and look for "windows of enhanced probability" so to speak and those ridge spikes are what caused enhanced probability. Beyond that, ensembles get too diffuse to really even tell PNA spikes, but there actually looks like there could be some weak ridging into Greenland/Iceland after the 25th. What I really like about the EC ensembles is that the ridge throughout the run is predominately on the west coast and up into NW Territories....which is a good spot. GEFS is a bit west later in the period but still a very cold look. We are very fortunate to live in an age when the science is progressing to a point where we can pick target dates out sometimes 2-3 weeks in advance. The fun is just about to begin, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We are very fortunate to live in an age when the science is progressing to a point where we can pick target dates out sometimes 2-3 weeks in advance. The fun is just about to begin, finally. 2-3 weeks is pushing it for specific dates IMHO, but 8-12 days can be done if you have decent agreement on ensembles. We've certainly been talking about the general pattern looking better though for that 2+ week lead time. I'm really hoping the weak ridging into Greenland and Iceland happens post-25th because that will help us lower the probability of 1980s cutters. They can still happen even with that, but the chances are less. I also like the strong ridge over the NW territories...that acts to suppress heights over central and eastern canada so if we get southwest US trough energy ejecting, it will he more likely to run into a brick wall of cold high pressure in Quebec. It's not January 2011, but it is the best look I've seen yet this winter. We struck out on an "okay" pattern earlier this month. It happens. But this has some more features going for it. Namely a stronger ridge out west....and with any luck, maybe a semblance of an east-based -NAO after the 25th. But I'll wait on getting too excited over that until I see it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 2-3 weeks is pushing it for specific dates IMHO, but 8-12 days can be done if you have decent agreement on ensembles. We've certainly been talking about the general pattern looking better though for that 2+ week lead time. I'm really hoping the weak ridging into Greenland and Iceland happens post-25th because that will help us lower the probability of 1980s cutters. They can still happen even with that, but the chances are less. I also like the strong ridge over the NW territories...that acts to suppress heights over central and eastern canada so if we get southwest US trough energy ejecting, it will he more likely to run into a brick wall of cold high pressure in Quebec. It's not January 2011, but it is the best look I've seen yet this winter. We struck out on an "okay" pattern earlier this month. It happens. But this has some more features going for it. Namely a stronger ridge out west....and with any luck, maybe a semblance of an east-based -NAO after the 25th. But I'll wait on getting too excited over that until I see it happen. So basically a similar look to last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We struck out on an "okay" pattern earlier this month. It happens. I'd say it was more like eastern SNE struck out swinging at balls in the dirt, while western SNE bunted and reached first on a poor throw by the third baseman. I am of course referring to the arctic front that gave locations outside of the coastal plain 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Not as below up here, but still below. -0.3F BTV, -1.3F MVL, -1.9F MSS, -2.9F MPV The North has the cold. CAR: -5.8 BGR: -6.0 PWM: -3.0 CON: -4.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast?? lol... Ginxy will never get down on a pattern. After a few posts about "meh"... he can find some nugget of gold to try and boost spirits. week OF the 16th is my call so 16th-23rd is my call, win or lose Nope. I definitely don't think a -NAO is a lock. In fact id say it's not likely. The AO NAO go negative week of the 16th, life jackets thrown out,for today's bridge jumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Kudos to you Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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