TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From Isotherm: In conclusion: the current cold January has clearly diverted this winter from poor/warm +ENSO year and indicates that the global state remains favorable for NPAC / EPO blocking, as has been the case since autumn. Improvements in global, tropical, and stratospheric forcing implicate an AO shift after the 20th. The NAO state should improve significantly (neutralize) but blocking in that region may remain unimpressive for the time being. Sensible weather wise: anticipate a transient thaw period of approximately 3-5 days as the global regime transitions, however, the cold January should resume for the CONUS by the last week of January, with the development of a -EPO/-AO. Since the negative AO state has not been present thus far, this will likely increase the potential for wintry precipitation in the East which has largely been absent. At this point, I expect the late January transition to continue and amplify for the month of February. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 They subtly cover their butts by saying "if the ensembles are right" before going on to act like it has already happened. Mets have the biggest meltdowns because they are the biggest weenies of them all, that's why they became mets. no i actually wasn't subtly covering my butt. that's stupid. you're stupid. i looked at the ensembles...they looked damn cold. i posted that tweet. end of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 tru dat you know that's not true steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 no i actually wasn't subtly covering my butt. that's stupid. you're stupid. i looked at the ensembles...they looked damn cold. i posted that tweet. end of story. It was more the other two, but also you have cooties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It was more the other two, but also you have cooties. i may. yes. but that was me who said it. so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I also confirm Phil has cooties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Phil is right anyways with the wording. It's meteorology. There is always some uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 "I don't do it, so it must be stupid" If you like a universal newspaper that allows you to craft your interests and hobbies into one universal stream then twitter is for you. this. this board was/is/can be a great learning place...but if you can weed through the garbage on twitter, there are lots of great people on there sharing thoughts on all sorts of stuff....including the long range pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 i may. yes. but that was me who said it. so.... Sorry Phil, you're right it wasn't you. It was the other two who played off your tweet to act the sky was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I also confirm Phil has cooties. heavy heavy cooties. anyhow...i don't think the pattern necessarily implies frigid/dry. obviously you'd lean drier vs average but certainly nothing there that says snowless. at least, to my eyes. -epo doesn't have to equate to suppression or cutters. we've just had some bad luck when it has set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 heavy heavy cooties. anyhow...i don't think the pattern necessarily implies frigid/dry. obviously you'd lean drier vs average but certainly nothing there that says snowless. at least, to my eyes. -epo doesn't have to equate to suppression or cutters. we've just had some bad luck when it has set in. That's how I would view it, but I'm sure people will just argue that with persistence. Persistence can be a dangerous thing as we know. I don't necessarily see this as cold and dry at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Sorry Phil, you're right it wasn't you. It was the other two who played off your tweet to act the sky was falling. no worries. anyway...like i said above. i don't think it looks that bad. could certainly draw up worse patterns. might end up getting skunked again but devils in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's how I would view it, but I'm sure people will just argue that with persistence. Persistence can be a dangerous thing as we know. I don't necessarily see this as cold and dry at the moment. yeah i agree. could totally just be a bad hunch...but i think we'll be making up ground soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 yeah i agree. could totally just be a bad hunch...but i think we'll be making up ground soon. Maybe you get your biggest snowfall to date over the next 48 hrs..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 you know that's not true steve.lol no they became Mets because they were weenies comment is what I was agreeing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The thing is, you'd say you are completely fooked for snow if it showed a death vortex over AK rather than a -EPO ridge there...you want some cold coming down. You might worry about suppression, but that is easier to overcome with a strong shortwave or a simple relaxation in Quebec confluence than it is to overcome a blowtorching Ontario/Quebec source region and counting on "threading the needle" storms to get cold enough for a 31F pastebomb at ORH in the middle of January. Ideally you want a -NAO...but heck, the first hint of east-based -NAO blocking showed up in today's weeklies which might be extrpolating out the "Weakness" in the NAO region I was mentioning showed up at the very end of the last 2 EC ensemble runs. So we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Bingo. I would take my chances with that. Roll the dice enough times and you should score a few I'm still optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 yeah i agree. could totally just be a bad hunch...but i think we'll be making up ground soon. I agree with this. It is just a matter of time before the pattern changes. The models have been showing the signs for the past week that things are about to get a bit interesting, and I certainly see the cold air coming back into the CONUS. So I would tend to agree with Tropo, even if it's just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Leon rolled the dice. EPO gives you cold but snow can be variable from fabulous to weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Pretty much unanimous agreement on ensembles that we get a pretty cold pattern for late month, but the details differ. GEFS keep a very stout +NAO while they now have the ridge a bit further west offshore vs the EC ensembles which keep the ridge almost over the NW Coast of North America. EC ensembles also continue to show some weakness in the NAO region...esp for Iceland up through eastern Greenland. Maybe the Russian is cut? But the common theme is pretty significant cold over much of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 yeah i agree. could totally just be a bad hunch...but i think we'll be making up ground soon. Agree, but think it won't be until February. January is skunked imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm not sure if this is specifically relevant to this thread, but can anyone possibly mention some bigger snow storms that have occurred over the years based on the the current projected pattern going forward with a negative EPO positive PNA but a possibly stout positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The AO is really unpredictable, isn't it? I would like to see the AO go negative for a prolonged period of time. Maybe then the NAO would have a chance to follow. Not sure how a negative PNA is going to be good for storminess but it looks like we get one for the end of the month. I have no idea what I'm looking at lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The thing is, you'd say you are completely fooked for snow if it showed a death vortex over AK rather than a -EPO ridge there...you want some cold coming down. You might worry about suppression, but that is easier to overcome with a strong shortwave or a simple relaxation in Quebec confluence than it is to overcome a blowtorching Ontario/Quebec source region and counting on "threading the needle" storms to get cold enough for a 31F pastebomb at ORH in the middle of January. Ideally you want a -NAO...but heck, the first hint of east-based -NAO blocking showed up in today's weeklies which might be extrpolating out the "Weakness" in the NAO region I was mentioning showed up at the very end of the last 2 EC ensemble runs. So we shall see. I'm hopeful that we will at least see the zombie abate somewhat. I mean, we can live without a 582dm Tippy torch there....even a tepid little node is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm not sure if this is specifically relevant to this thread, but can anyone possibly mention some bigger snow storms that have occurred over the years based on the the current projected pattern going forward with a negative EPO positive PNA but a possibly stout positive NAO. It is difficult to get large snowstorms (as in KU) with this type of pattern. It can occasionally happen but more likely you get medium sized events in the 6-10 range because they tend to be faster moving. That said it only takes even a pseudo block to slow things down enough for a much larger storm. The famous January 1961 KU did this. But most of our events would be akin to stuff we saw in January 1994, January 2009, and even last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It is difficult to get large snowstorms (as in KU) with this type of pattern. It can occasionally happen but more likely you get medium sized events in the 6-10 range because they tend to be faster moving. That said it only takes even a pseudo block to slow things down enough for a much larger storm. The famous January 1961 KU did this. But most of our events would be akin to stuff we saw in January 1994, January 2009, and even last year. I'm not sure why he apparently deleted that. I was trying to reply to it in order to express that I felt as though it was a great question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm not sure why he apparently deleted that. I was trying to replyto it in order express that I thought it was a great question. Yeah it was a good question. Very applicable in the patten thread. I will add that in order to increase the chances of a bigger system, we want to see that PNA ridge spike. As tip often talks about, the PNA can act as a modulator for storms like the NAO does. It's not as strong a signal, but it is definitely useful. EC ensembles have two ridge spikes out west over the next 12-13 days...the first one is 1/21 or so and the next one is 1/25. The 1/21 spike is what the OP euro tries to use to create that clipper/redeveloper. That system admittedly is going to have an uphill climb because we are starting from a flatter base state but it is not impossible. 1/25 we have thrown around as a loose date for perhaps something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 There are signs that we may see perhaps one of those east based ridges into NE Greenland, or perhaps maybe more of a -AO type deal. I'm really hesitant on any confidence so I would not lock it, but also seems like bottom up or tropospheric forcing may try to disrupt the strat vortex at 50mb and push it into Siberia allowing a warming. Even the op runs try to split it. IMO, I still don't see any sign of a true -NAO, but maybe we can try and get something to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Also, not to Debbie, but don't be surprised at one or two "messy" systems as the cold moves in. If that cold plunges into the Plains first, then we may see a storm riding up through the Appalachians, perhaps like what we saw after Christmas. I know it's not shown verbatim, but that's what these patterns do at first. Hopefully we don't see it, but be warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Also, not to Debbie, but don't be surprised at one or two "messy" systems as the cold moves in. If that cold plunges into the Plains first, then we may see a storm riding up through the Appalachians, perhaps like what we saw after Christmas. I know it's not shown verbatim, but that's what these patterns do at first. Hopefully we don't see it, but be warned. Euro almost showed it in clown range. Verbatim we'd get clocked probably but slightly earlier or west and that is a messy system with more rain. This is 1/23-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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