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January 2015 Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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Issue will be have and have nots. I think we see a situation where either my area or PF misses out in faster moving coastal systems.

I really think the signals are very clear that snow is coming. Fits very well with developing pattern and how the Eurasian weather evolved a little later this year.

Delayed but not denied

Yeah I think this can't continue, and whether it's a pattern change or just luck, there's gotta be at least a moderate widespread 4-8" or 6-12" event coming for like central SNE. Sooner or later Kev, ORH, 40/70, axis has to get a warning level storm. I like your idea of fast moving coastals...climo is high enough in those interior SNE areas that sooner or later a decent event will come along. It may not be a 40"+ month, but I gotta imagine at least 20" falls in February through the heart of SNE.

I'm not sure what would "salvage" winter, but my guess would be at least 2 warning criteria storms for that crew.

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Just went back and read some of the earlier comments in this thread about expectations for January. They seem eerily similar to the current expectations for February.

 

And Tip, you should probably stop hot-linking model maps...your posts don't make sense anymore because the images are all from current runs. This one in particular looks a little silly right now:

 

Capture_zps0dc436ba.jpg

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Just went back and read some of the earlier comments in this thread about expectations for January. They seem eerily similar to the current expectations for February.

And Tip, you should probably stop hot-linking model maps...your posts don't make sense anymore because the images are all from current runs. This one in particular looks a little silly right now:

Capture_zps0dc436ba.jpg

Just goes to show how hit and miss snow can be. Its funny, we've been pretty solidly below normal temp wise, and have nothing to show for it more or less.

I'm not expecting a blockbuster turnaround. Too many ways that can go wrong or simply not happen. It would be nice to salvage Feb with a few nice events though, then again, it could end up like this month, who really knows

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We can have an above normal February with snow and history still show this as a turd burger. We are so far behind already and have another two weeks of crap barring a butterfly burp somehow that changes things.

I just see an extended period of stormy and cold weather starting about 1/24. Where the axis is of heavy snow is unknown

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We can have an above normal February with snow and history still show this as a turd burger. We are so far behind already and have another two weeks of crap barring a butterfly burp somehow that changes things.

I just see an extended period of stormy and cold weather starting about 1/24. Where the axis is of heavy snow is unknown

I agree 100%. Gotta get through wee one, cold and boring, and week two, milder and.boring, then.we have a.shot.
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I have been away for a few days.   I see that winter has still been cancelled (although there was some nice mood snows this morning on way to train). 

 

Euro & GEM both similar in their advertisement of a parade of storms off the East Coast with seemingly everyone one of them being too far away.   Will have to see how that changes and if we get lucky.

 

But more importantly.......fill me in:  Have we had the meltdowns yet?  Who & when?

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Cold signals are good..but I'd prefer a less cold signal and more stormy look We've seen the ens look cold several times this winter which has verified..but they never seem to signal big storminess

 

 

EC ensembles have a pretty good PNA spike around 1/25...then it retros the ridge a bit further west...but that spike around 1/25 is probably a good candidate for a storm system in our area if we wanted to take an educated WAG this far out. The GEFS are similar but the spike is a little bit later and the GEFS don't retro the ridge as much (which is actually better...I'd want to keep the very high heights around the NW territories).

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This is not a discussion  a snow lover likes to see between 3 well respected SNE mets

 

  1. If ensemble guidance is right...last week of the month we go right back into the icebox. Big cold signal...again.

     
     
  2. @capecodweather And also a 'no snow' signal....the worst combo ever.

    \
     
  3. @ericfisher @capecodweather yup... Worst ever. I'd rather 60F and a parade of winter cutters


     
  4.  

    @ericfisher @capecodweather euro weeklies drop the cold hammer week 3.

     
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But Thanks Giving 2015 has been canceled due to lack of gratitude.

:lmao:

 

Looks like the warm up may be a joke from what I see on modeling.

 

Chances look to be some of the best of the winter when that ridging establishes itself over AK.

 

The negative attitude toward cold without snow is absurd at it's heart.

 

"I'd rather have it be 50-60F!"

 

Well, einstein, it doesn't snow at those temperatures so I will hope for the cold pattern thank you very much. I guarantee people would still b1tch too so it's a lose-lose situation. I bet when it snows some of the same people will be bitching about shoveling or something.

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