JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Think we might go the whole winter without a coastal? Nope. Late next week there will be a coastal, it will just be a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Think we might go the whole winter without a coastal?No because there's already been at least two.Thanksgiving system, and the big multi day cut-off in early December were both east coast coastal water storms. If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 There's been more than 2, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those. Lol...we could go a lot longer than one winter without one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Lol...we could go a lot longer than one winter without one of those. I went from 2/12/06 to 1/12/11 without a 10"er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I went from 2/12/06 to 1/12/11 without a 10"er.Yack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I guess we could say not dead yet but on life support. From HPC: FOR UPR TROUGHING HEADING INTO THE EAST AND PSBLY GENERATING A SFCSYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK... THERE APPEAR TO BETWO KEY PARTS OF THE FCST THAT REQUIRE MONITORING. THESE WOULD BEHOW THE ENERGY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AS OF EARLY TUE ELONGATESINTO WED AND HOW NRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY OVER THE NERN PAC/WRNCANADA AS OF TUE INTERACTS WITH THE EJECTING WRN FEATURE OVER THEERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE COMBINEDASPECTS OF THIS EVOLUTION APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO REQUIREMULTIPLE FUTURE RUNS BEFORE GAINING CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULARSOLN. TRENDS IN THE FULL GUIDANCE MEAN CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD AMORE OFFSHORE SFC DEVELOPMENT THAN SEEN IN SOME EARLIER SOLNSESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. A MORE SUPPRESSEDSFC PATTERN LEADING UP TO THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OFTHAT TREND. HOWEVER AS OF 12Z THU ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF 12ZENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED FROM THE WRN SIDE OF THE SFCLOW ENVELOPE AND THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR MID LVL ENERGY TOEVOLVE/INTERACT DIFFERENTLY FROM HOW IT IS CURRENTLY FCST.OVERALL A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF AN 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANCOMPROMISE OFFERS THE BEST INTERMEDIATE SOLN AMONG LATEST GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 sounds somewhat optimistic to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 No because there's already been at least two. Thanksgiving system, and the big multi day cut-off in early December were both east coast coastal water storms. If what you are thinking of is an 18-inch 22-degree wind-whipped powder coastal storm, then yes those don't grow on trees so we could go all winter without one of those. Whoops, for some reason I thought that was a swfe. I meant a coastal where everyone' gets 6" or a but more, you know nothing crazy, just a run of the mill snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues Please, 2011 or 2012 I didn't even have a frost at my house the entire winter; you've had a couple of small events thus far and last winter we started late January into February. Plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 End of the week is a goner. That has 0 chance of coming north.The winter without a coastal continues Did you miss the few posts before your post discussing the few coastal storms we've had this season? See the graphic of the Thanksgiving storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Through 1/9/15: BOS: -3.4 BDL: -2.7 ORH: -2.2 PVD: -3.5 The beast to the east ain't rising like yeast..... By mid month, all 4 sites should add significantly to those departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Through 1/9/15: BOS: -3.4 BDL: -2.7 ORH: -2.2 PVD: -3.5 The beast to the east ain't rising like yeast..... By mid month, all 4 sites should add significantly to those departures. ORH will go down too post-ad...I emailed with BOX and they said replaced the sensor at ORH yesterday which had bogus highs on 1/7 and 1/8 and the F6 data wil be adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's rather disappointing that we couldn't mute the torch heading our way or capitalize on our chances as things reshuffled this past week. We had a couple light,garbage events but it hasn't really satisfied anyone. Ensembles do look better after a warm up so it appears a warmer pattern is transient. Hopefully things can deliver on the back end heading into the last week of January or around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Through 1/9/15: BOS: -3.4 BDL: -2.7 ORH: -2.2 PVD: -3.5 The beast to the east ain't rising like yeast..... By mid month, all 4 sites should add significantly to those departures. Good thing those solidly below numbers are leading to average snows for the month thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 There is pretty darn good agreement on all sets of ensemble guidance that we gain a +PNA/-EPO pattern after the mild few days near MLK day. The +PNA is what we will want to root for because that allows shortwaves to amplify much better and thus, your chances of a more significant coastal system is better versus some of these meat-grinder events....it also helps lessen the chance of a cutter, though it certainly doesn't make it a lock, especially with a still positive NAO. But you reduce the space in the wavelengths available for a cutter when you have a nice PNA ridge. At any rate, we will see how this looks going forward, but we will return to seasonal cold I think, and perhaps more intense cold beyond trying to extrapolate (dangeorus I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It's rather disappointing that we couldn't mute the torch heading our way or capitalize on our chances as things reshuffled this past week. We had a couple light,garbage events but it hasn't really satisfied anyone. Ensembles do look better after a warm up so it appears a warmer pattern is transient. Hopefully things can deliver on the back end heading into the last week of January or around then.Didnt see anything this afternoon that shows torch. No cutter either. Couple days in the 40's is nbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Didnt see anything this afternoon that shows torch. No cutter either. Couple days in the 40's is nbdwe'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Seems like nothing really on the horizon. As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm. We gradually modify towards and over the weekend. I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge. What happens next I guess is the question. Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in? Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake. The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm. Any guesses on the date of another period of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Seems like nothing really on the horizon. As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm. We gradually modify towards and over the weekend. I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge. What happens next I guess is the question. Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in? Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake. The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm. Any guesses on the date of another period of winter? I could see something MLK day or so. After that, we get cold again and hopefully snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I could see something MLK day or so. After that, we get cold again and hopefully snowier. What would be the set up for something around MLK? I just assumed that was an eastern ridge and dead zone until the reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What would be the set up for something around MLK? I just assumed that was an eastern ridge and dead zone until the reset.Could be an overrunning deal. Whether it's a cutter or more of a snow or ice deal remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The op Euro looks a whole lot nicer than the Euro Ens D8-D10. EPS has 850s nearly +10 over climo by 00z Tuesday while the op has plenty of cold nearby. I do think we get at least a bit of a torch... but the pattern by the end of MLK week seems to turn the corner a bit with the -EPO/+PNA pattern that Will mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Seems like nothing really on the horizon. As I am understanding it, given the limited discussion these days, we have a cold week with the overrunning and then a well offshore storm. We gradually modify towards and over the weekend. I am assuming by next Monday we are warming up and there is an eastern ridge. What happens next I guess is the question. Maybe we get back into winter in 10 days or so if the PNA builds and a shortwave dives in? Or perhaps more likely, as the pattern evolves a storm forms over the SW or middle of the country and cuts up to southern Quebec, bringing down a cold front in its wake. The PNA spikes and maybe we get something by about the 25th in terms of a storm. Any guesses on the date of another period of winter? Boring until about the 22nd, looks to me like we start seeing some real storms after the 22-24th period and it continues mostly cold and stormy right into February. I think all and all it will play out maybe a week later than would be normal/what's as expected by guys like Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Boring until about the 22nd, looks to me like we start seeing some real storms after the 22-24th period and it continues mostly cold and stormy right into February. I think all and all it will play out maybe a week later than would be normal/what's as expected by guys like Cohen. Thanks for the response. Given what a disappointment it has been so far, I am also optimistic for a strong finish. I'll be in Savannah the entire month of Feb though, so I am hoping for no Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Thanks for the response. Given what a disappointment it has been so far, I am also optimistic for a strong finish. I'll be in Savannah the entire month of Feb though, so I am hoping for no Morch. Issue will be have and have nots. I think we see a situation where either my area or PF misses out in faster moving coastal systems. I really think the signals are very clear that snow is coming. Fits very well with developing pattern and how the Eurasian weather evolved a little later this year. Delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well if there is any good news I suppose...it's that any warm up appears to really be muted or shortened. I still can't rule out a lakes cutter...but it may be more 1 or 2 milder days and then we reshuffle again. The GEFS really drop the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Shaping up nicely it seems. The cold dry Jan calls seems to be a good one. I would think by day 12 we are tracking a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Can't wait for Feb/March. We can still salvage this season.....Just frustrating at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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