CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 next week holds our best chances for sure. Even if the gfs today kind of squashes any chance for the sundya monday period, verbatim it has hope for wed-thu... I'm optomistic we can get an event out of next week to get us on the board, followed by another cold shot end of the week...then the pattern breaks for a bit into mlk week Yeah I agree as well. Probably a break, but doesn't seem to be the month long disaster that December had lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It looks like there is some guidance of a shift in the dominant regime of the past 6 weeks such that the Atlantic side is more favorable. Let's hope the GEFS have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 well long-range looks pretty good overall on today's runs. couple of opportunities next week to watch and then really the breakdown out west is short-lived. we'll see if that theme holds for a few days...but that's certainly not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It looks like there is some guidance of a shift in the dominant regime of the past 6 weeks such that the Atlantic side is more favorable. Let's hope the GEFS have a clue. Not unexpected , looks pretty good for storms and chances of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The EC definitely toned back the relaxation. Not sure if it's going to come back or not..but it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The EC definitely toned back the relaxation. Not sure if it's going to come back or not..but it did. It's been caving to the GEFS guidance in the long range for days now. Really nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It looks like there is some guidance of a shift in the dominant regime of the past 6 weeks such that the Atlantic side is more favorable. Let's hope the GEFS have a clue. We can celebrate the beginning of the real winter after MLK over a meal or two. It's coming, how long it lasts? But I think we see a good period of wintry weather into at least the first week of February along with a larger storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We can celebrate the beginning of the real winter after MLK over a meal or two. It's coming, how long it lasts? But I think we see a good period of wintry weather into at least the first week of February along with a larger storm or two. We take what we get. I owe you 2 dinners. Pick the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Feb will rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembles sure do look like potential fun next week. Really good looking imo. I wonder if January goes out with a bang rather than Feb coming in with one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro ensembles sure do look like potential fun next week. Really good looking imo. I wonder if January goes out with a bang rather than Feb coming in with one?Regardless, I envision a 2013 like turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Regardless, I envision a 2013 like turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Why is this year less favored to do it than that year??? If anything, it's better suited to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'm not expexting a blizzard redux, btw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Why is this year less favored to do it than that year??? If anything, it's better suited to do so. That was an epic turnaround. I think the odds of something like that aren't good, but not impossible. Would be tough to repeat that turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That was an epic turnaround. I think the odds of something like that aren't good, but not impossible. Would be tough to repeat that turnaround. Lets get that -NAO locked in end of month (like Will said we need) for real shot of epic turnaround Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That was an epic turnaround. I think the odds of something like that aren't good, but not impossible. Would be tough to repeat that turnaround.I think we'll see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The NAO is why I'd be hesitant to think a 2013-esque turnaround...that, and the fact that 2013 was so ridiculous of a turnaround, that even favorable conditions would unlikely match it. But the NAO needs to show some life...it's been a death vortex there. Zombie-esque. We shall see though. If we do in fact get a -NAO, then I think we'll see a very good stretch regardless if it matches 2013 or not. Don't forgot, we bascally put up a 25 spot (and 30 spot in a chunk of CT) in one storm in 2013 to start the comeback.Think of how much snow that is for a minute...you can get two 12" snowstorms and it's still a little short. And I don't have to remind everyone (well maybe a few) that 12 inch snowstorms don't grow on trees. One thing that will try and help us I think is the STJ. It should be active I'd think in February/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Why is this year less favored to do it than that year??? If anything, it's better suited to do so. Murphy's Law says that is exactly why it won't happen, lol. There is something about flips around Feb 1st...like 06-07 was a dead ratter then had the most incredible turn around in Feb/Mar/Apr up here. 2013 it was SNE....1969 and years like that. Just like it's hard to get a wire-to-wire epic winter...likewise it's tough to be completely skunked all season when a lot of favorable seasonal indications are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 In the 2013 turn around...was that mainly those two biggies or were there a bunch of other events mixed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The NAO is why I'd be hesitant to think a 2013-esque turnaround...that, and the fact that 2013 was so ridiculous of a turnaround, that even favorable conditions would unlikely match it. But the NAO needs to show some life...it's been a death vortex there. Zombie-esque. We shall see though. If we do in fact get a -NAO, then I think we'll see a very good stretch regardless if it matches 2013 or not. Don't forgot, we bascally put up a 25 spot (and 30 spot in a chunk of CT) in one storm in 2013 to start the comeback.Think of how much snow that is for a minute...you can get two 12" snowstorms and it's still a little short. And I don't have to remind everyone (well maybe a few) that 12 inch snowstorms don't grow on trees. One thing that will try and help us I think is the STJ. It should be active I'd think in February/March. Yeah I don't argue that we wouldn't see a turnaround, but something even just under 2013 would be hard to beat. But hey, crazier things have happened. I think it would be a fun time regardless. I guess that's all relative though in this winter lol. A 4" storm would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 In the 2013 turn around...was that mainly those two biggies or were there a bunch of other events mixed in? March 18 was a good one here. I got almost 10" and north of Boston nearly a foot or more. Also, mid February saw a 5-7" fluff job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 In the 2013 turn around...was that mainly those two biggies or were there a bunch of other events mixed in? For me it was the blizzard, the fire hose event, and there was another decent moderate or so event about a week after the blizzard. That was pretty much it. So in a sense the turnaround was epic in the snowfall total department. However, it came in mostly 2 highly anomalous events. We didn't see a train of systems like 10-11 had. In a way we just cashed in on two unlikely setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 March 18 was a good one here. I got almost 10" and north of Boston nearly a foot or more. Also, mid February saw a 5-7" fluff job.Ah yeah I forgot about that March event...I think we had a 12-14" system in there but I thought it was the 22nd or 23rd so might have been a different one.To get the "epic" turn arounds though you definitely need at least one HECS or something of that ilk. Like 2013 you guys had the Feb blizzard, and up here in 2007 we had Valentines Day with widespread 24-36" in BTV's CWA. Then in 2013 you guys had the March firehose event while in 2007 up here there was St Patty's day plus upslope which was another 18-36" total. Those are what really make the memorable turn arounds. I guess you could do it with smaller events but you'd need a lot of 6-12" events to really make up serious ground like Will said...it's much easier when you throw in a couple top 15 type all-time storms. Granted when winter is heading towards ratter, even 4 warning criteria storms in Feb/March would be a huge win, even if it only nets like 30-40". That would still be a good turn around, but if you're looking for like 50-60" after Feb 1st, you need at least one HECS or two biggies of MECS status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Scott, reading between the lines, it seems as though you are pretty down on the rest of winter. Are thinking ratter deep down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Despite the wait/anticipation of a more significant snow event this week has been very Januaryesque, at least out here. Sure, the w/e storm cut but we picked up a few inches that glaciated with a torch that went awol and it's been damn cold and wintery thanks to today's light accumulation with bitter cold en route. Seasons in seasons. The snow is coming, you can almost sense it. As many have stated, different pattern different "feel" from the 2011/12 disaster. Hard to complain too much when we got crushed out here in Oct 2011 and got pretty banged up by the pre-Tday storm this year when in both events a lot of SNE posters were on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Scott, reading between the lines, it seems as though you are pretty down on the rest of winter. Are thinking ratter deep down? I don't think he's saying ratter and you have to be careful putting that out. In fact I read cautious optimism of a decent flip but worried about NAO. Posts like yours can be misconstrued such that some weenie posts in multiple threads that coastal wx thinks winters over when in fact he never said that and in fact implied otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 No, I don't mean to imply that. Has it sucked so far? Yes absolutely...and this cold with a translucent dusting pisses me off too. So yeah, I'm human and it's going to come out at times. However, I'm hopeful for some sort of a turnaround...I actually thought it came out in some posts yesterday, but perhaps not. Don't misconstrue that fact that I'm not expecting a 2013 turnaround as me implying a dead ratter. I could be wrong and we are buried, but I'm a little skeptical of getting 60+" in 6 weeks or whatever it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think this is wrong and I think you have been slowly almost imperceptively melting over the lat 2 days. We have several components for costal storms and as Steve says all we need is good timing or a quasi block. I think it will happen and I think the pattern can support a coastal. Positive pna active southern jet strong baroclinity cold air source. Why is this so hard to follow..it's not going to be a big snow winter. It's mid Jan and many places have seen less than 10 inches. We're not in a big coastal storm pattern..expect small events every few days and by the end when totaled up..hopefully most places are near normal for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 No, I don't mean to imply that. Has it sucked so far? Yes absolutely...and this cold with a translucent dusting pisses me off too. So yeah, I'm human and it's going to come out at times. However, I'm hopeful for some sort of a turnaround...I actually thought it came out in some posts yesterday, but perhaps not. Don't misconstrue that fact that I'm not expecting a 2013 turnaround as me implying a dead ratter. I could be wrong and we are buried, but I'm a little skeptical of getting 60+" in 6 weeks or whatever it was. I knew what you meant. I just wanted to get this out in the open, as clear and unequivocal as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.