Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This looks good too @growingwisdom: Mostly dry weather continues for the next 10 days according to most models. Snow "drought" continues for now. http://t.co/D00HTb8jUb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Then there is 2 years ago. I think BOS had 10 inches going into the blizzard of 2/8/13. They broke 60 for the season...edit...8.8 going into 2/1. Then the turnaround was spectacular. This is what continues to come to mind for me as well. Without signals for an AK death vortex like we had in 11-12 (or something else undeniably horrendous) I just don't think it's realistic to cancel the season. Not to say that I expect a blizzard come February, but I do expect our snowiest climo month to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The NAO can flip with little warning. We don't know very much about forecasting the NAO at lead times of 2-5 weeks. It's important not to overstate our skill in forecasting the pattern that far out. As for the current pattern setup, I actually like the PNA spike coming up mid month. That's how to get a deeper trough over the east that may let a larger system amplify. You still need a good shortwave but that isn't really forecastable at this range. The MLK thaw looks temporary to me. AK height are already recovering after a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Personally, I honestly don't think anybody knows much of what will happen over the next 8 weeks...very tricky looking down the road. Any outcome at this point is possible. From almost no snow the rest of the way, to a big turn around. It certainly won't be the big year that many were pointing to that's for sure!! But it could deliver nicely over the next couple months, or it could be the Ratter that it has been too. I think it was Scott, who said yesterday, Mother Nature likes to Serve up some Big Humble Pie to us just when we think we have her figured out with all of our Enso talk and SST, and SAI and Snow cover Extent etc etc......!! And boy is she showing us that we don't know a whole heck of a lot this year!! The Irony is always impressive in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well summer was ruined and now winter well on its way to doing the same. Mid January and most of SNE will be under 15 inches of snow And that was likely the end of the "big" winter seasonal forecasts at least for a few years...doubt anyone will go big or go home for fear of getting burned like this year. Barring a big turnaround, those 133-150% of normal snowfall forecasts are on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems to be a lot of hoping and pipe dreams. It's become apparent we are going to have a +NAO all winter. Folks need to plan on a not so snowy winter . It sucks, just like our summer did.. But persistence is the way to go until proven otherwiseI liked the look of that this AM when I saw the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The NAO can flip with little warning. We don't know very much about forecasting the NAO at lead times of 2-5 weeks. It's important not to overstate our skill in forecasting the pattern that far out. As for the current pattern setup, I actually like the PNA spike coming up mid month. That's how to get a deeper trough over the east that may let a larger system amplify. You still need a good shortwave but that isn't really forecastable at this range. The MLK thaw looks temporary to me. AK height are already recovering after a couple of days. Can you explain the heights around AK in a little more detail? I never had a full understanding of what is good and what is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The GEFS really show you how it's done, but my guess is they may be a bit bullish. But, as said a few times today...the EC tries to improve the look and isn't a complete blow torch being deeper into winter. Sometimes those relaxations allow for marginal events to sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Can you explain the heights around AK in a little more detail? I never had a full understanding of what is good and what is bad. Higher heights (above normal) in AK is a cold signal. Vortex and below avg heights there is a wam signal for the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The GEFS really show you how it's done, but my guess is they may be a bit bullish. But, as said a few times today...the EC tries to improve the look and isn't a complete blow torch being deeper into winter. Sometimes those relaxations allow for marginal events to sneak in. You can't go wrong tempering and vestige of optimism this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1969 waited until Feb. Still can't hear any footsteps approaching the door yet I still can't shake the feeling that this winter is going to snap. If not, There will be plenty that will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'll tell you what, after this vortex consolidates, it gets a big punch in the gut again. I wonder if that does the trick. For an ensemble mean wanting to show the vortex really stretched and pushed away from the Davis Straits area, that's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'll tell you what, after this vortex consolidates, it gets a big punch in the gut again. I wonder if that does the trick. For an ensemble mean wanting to show the vortex really stretched and pushed away from the Davis Straits area, that's pretty good.That's what happened in January 2005. It just got split up with little warning around mid month or just after. NAO went negative during the blizzard and mostly stayed that way in the means the next two months.We hopefully can get something like that. Or it might be tough to make up much ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I liked the look of that this AM when I saw the ensembles. He gone, melted, gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday he ain"t never coming back, my DIT's gone. Yea I don't think that look is a look to be overlooked. that is a psuedo block, similar to other pseudo blocks over the years that has produced some good storms. Even transient slowdown in the flow is good. Lot of signs for a PNA push around 240 ish with that drop in NAO at the same time. But yea he gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 He gone, melted, gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday he ain"t never coming back, my DIT's gone. Yea I don't think that look is a look to be overlooked. that is a psuedo block, similar to other pseudo blocks over the years that has produced some good storms. Even transient slowdown in the flow is good. Lot of signs for a PNA push around 240 ish with that drop in NAO at the same time. But yea he gone. I don't see how being realistic , using science, and objective is "being gone" or "melted" Sometimes it's ok to not think things look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Will, I agree.....we need the NAO to snap, or we aren't making up alot of ground with these nickel and penny jobs. I still think we'll see the NAO cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I can't wait for another no summer. I will take a dozen summers like this past one over the humid wreck of a summer from the year before (i think it was 2013 that sucked). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I don't see how being realistic , using science, and objective is "being gone" or "melted" Sometimes it's ok to not think things look good Well you made some baseless statements like the NAO isn't flipping. You don't have any evidence to support that. If you do, then post it. The heuristic rhetoric should probably be kept the to banter thread. Likewise, just posting that the NAO will flip without evidence is not for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well you made some baseless statements like the NAO isn't flipping. You don't have any evidence to support that. If you do, then post it. The heuristic rhetoric should probably be kept the to banter thread. Likewise, just posting that the NAO will flip without evidence is not for this thread. I think we can assume that any assertions that the NAO will flip are based on the plethora of indicators from the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That's what happened in January 2005. It just got split up with little warning around mid month or just after. NAO went negative during the blizzard and mostly stayed that way in the means the next two months. We hopefully can get something like that. Or it might be tough to make up much ground. I'm not sure what you can see, but sites like instant weather maps showing deterministic solutions hint at it too, esp 50mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm not sure what you can see, but sites like instant weather maps showing deterministic solutions hint at it too, esp 50mb. Yeah. Hopefully we see this start showing up more and more. I would like to see the OP Euro as it gets within range start showing this but that won't be for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm not sure what you can see, but sites like instant weather maps showing deterministic solutions hint at it too, esp 50mb. well, 1/05 has been showing up on the ensemble and super ensembles, so serious consideration that the AO and/or NAO will flip mid or late month seem to have a lot of real time merit especially in light of the previously mentioned pre-season indicators of a -AO or -NAO for the winter that said, the Eurosips forecast sort of dampens the enthusiasm a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'll tell you what, after this vortex consolidates, it gets a big punch in the gut again. I wonder if that does the trick. For an ensemble mean wanting to show the vortex really stretched and pushed away from the Davis Straits area, that's pretty good. Yea I was looking at the strat panels and was pretty encouraged. The GFS op runs show this really well where the vortex rotates away from greenland and towards Siberia, it is stretched and the strat high migrating across North America around and after the 20th. Lines up well with HM's thinking for next *attempt* at a -NAO being around then.. The first attempt was of course the Santabomb fiasco, that pattern looks similar to the progression on guidance around MLK so we shall see. i agree the thaw showing up isnt long lasting like Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yea I was looking at the strat panels and was pretty encouraged. The GFS op runs show this really well where the vortex rotates away from greenland and towards Siberia, it is stretched and the strat high migrating across North America around and after the 20th. Lines up well with HM's thinking for next *attempt* at a -NAO being around then.. The first attempt was of course the Santabomb fiasco, that pattern looks similar to the progression on guidance around MLK so we shall see. i agree the thaw showing up isnt long lasting like Dec. Probably helped by the GOAK trough too..at least the upward flux stuff.I feel better about this trying to do something vs. back in December from some sort of wave breaking with Santameh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Probably helped by the GOAK trough too..at least the upward flux stuff.I feel better about this trying to do something vs. back in December from some sort of wave breaking with Santameh. Yeah back in Dec you did have the strat anticyclone trying to migrate across NA but it was very weak at the end of the day and obviously santa-meh happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That period of mid to late week still needs to be watched. GEFS also looked a little more interesting. Another big cold shot behind it as heights again became higher in AK for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That period of mid to late week still needs to be watched. GEFS also looked a little more interesting. Another big cold shot behind it as heights again became higher in AK for now. yeah i was going to mention that. that window around the 16th-18th is a period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 yeah i was going to mention that. that window around the 16th-18th is a period to watch. GEFS back into winter again...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 GEFS back into winter again...lol. yeah they look pretty good. there's a little transient greenland ridge there during that MLK weekend...not a block but maybe enough to help things out a bit if something is rippling through the flow in the eastern us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That period of mid to late week still needs to be watched. GEFS also looked a little more interesting. Another big cold shot behind it as heights again became higher in AK for now. next week holds our best chances for sure. Even if the gfs today kind of squashes any chance for the sundya monday period, verbatim it has hope for wed-thu... I'm optomistic we can get an event out of next week to get us on the board, followed by another cold shot end of the week...then the pattern breaks for a bit into mlk week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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