SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It shows how bad the models are if indeed the AO does go negative because right now the ensembles show anything but a -AO pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It shows how bad the models are if indeed the AO does go negative because right now the ensembles show anything but a -AO patternweek OF the 16th is my call so 16th-23rd is my call, win or lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast??yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast?? lol... Ginxy will never get down on a pattern. After a few posts about "meh"... he can find some nugget of gold to try and boost spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The euro ensembles continue to advertise a big thaw MLK weekend give or take. Steve when is the thaw in your winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 EC ensembles look pretty bad, while the GEFS are keeping winter. Another battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GEFS are on their own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 There is a nice signal on all the ensembles d9-10/11. That's when we may have an opportunity before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Emotional posts about canceling winter and such can stay in the banter thread. This thread is for discussing the pattern going forward objectively. Lets keep the psycho-analysis out of here. Euro ENS look like a thaw around MLK...but if you extrapolated out it doesn't look long-lasting as heights are already starting to recover over AK. Also, the Euro ens have been looking too warm in the LR the past 6-10 days...they have had to cool as we get closer, so don't take them hook, line, and sinker yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast?? lol... Ginxy will never get down on a pattern. After a few posts about "meh"... he can find some nugget of gold to try and boost spirits. yea so I am just an idiot wishcaster, heck with both of ya. this came out AFTER I said that last night FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'd be very surprised if we got a real -NAO by the 20th but stranger things have happened. 2005 did it out of nowhere so it can happen. But I'm leaning against it right now. My hope is that it flips in time for February. In the meantime we can hope one of these shortwaves amplifies just via the PNA ridge we get out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think we need to watch things carefully in the 8 to 12 day range and not just assume that a suppressed and compressed flow will keep us from anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I haven't been in here for a few days and don't feel like reading back, but we have canceled the next 10 days right? Snow showers on Friday looks like the only threat. Also on a side note......anyone else see the Euro Ensemble MSLP mean advertising a 1058 mb HP over the plains on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I haven't been in here for a few days and don't feel like reading back, but we have canceled the next 10 days right? Snow showers on Friday looks like the only threat. Also on a side note......anyone else see the Euro Ensemble MSLP mean advertising a 1058 mb HP over the plains on Wednesday? Why would we cancel the next 10 or 11 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If this is right there ain't gonna be no thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 yea so I am just an idiot wishcaster, heck with both of ya. this came out AFTER I said that last night FYI Haha it wasn't meant to be a bad thing...you just have that glass half full mentality and can always find a Ray of hope. The day the world ends will be the day you come on here in winter and write a post about how the NAO/AO are going positive and winter is likely over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well that's why the GEFS and Euro are very, very, different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why would we cancel the next 10 or 11 days? Because there is nothing exciting except for the bone chilling cold. Unless I completely missed something. I only saw the chance of snow showers Tuesday night and Friday morning. Then the next chance of anything looked like the 14th-15th timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Because there is nothing exciting except for the bone chilling cold. Unless I completely missed something. I only saw the chance of snow showers Tuesday night and Friday morning. Then the next chance of anything looked like the 14th-15th timeframe. Well other than the some light snows tomorrow and Friday, probably nothing until sometime next week. Something could come by day 8 or so. Maybe until like 13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Well other than the some light snows tomorrow and Friday, probably nothing until sometime next week. Something could come by day 8 or so. Maybe until like 13-14. Oh well. Just wasting some good cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Oh well. Just wasting some good cold. Unless we don't. That's why it's silly to speculate 8-9-10 days out on actual storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Unless we don't. That's why it's silly to speculate 8-9-10 days out on actual storm threats. But are there any actual storm threats....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 But are there any actual storm threats....... Maybe D8-9? It's been showing up off and on. I don't find it really significant either way though given the time frame. You look for potential shortwaves in the flow with cold air around and it looks like there's a chance in there. We'll know more in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I wouldnt call the gefs/eps terribly different per se in where they end up around day 15/MLK day (particularly the 6z gefs)...Even the gfs shows the thaw developing, but the key difference is the gfs shows another very strong cold shot late next week before that happens, while the eps isnt latching onto the strength of that cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 December 2014 QBO at 30mb -25.35 A drop from -23.65 in November: http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index Most negative December -QBO at 30mb since data kept 1979. December 2005 was the most negative at -25.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Friday's clipper could be interesting. That s/w is getting a bit sharper, and SW winds will bring in some warmth and moisture relatively speaking. Could be one of those things with a wider band of snow pivoting through with like 20DBZ echoes, or perhaps a band of lighter snows with some squalls embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Scott, you think we could get some OES contribution on the southwesterly winds with the way the 850mb temps are on Thursday and Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Friday's clipper could be interesting. That s/w is getting a bit sharper, and SW winds will bring in some warmth and moisture relatively speaking. Could be one of those things with a wider band of snow pivoting through with like 20DBZ echoes, or perhaps a band of lighter snows with some squalls embedded. Edit: Never mind - I see what your saying based on the tropical tidbits site. I was looking at old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If this is right there ain't gonna be no thaw... You have to keep in mind that the AO is a hemispheric index. The air over the arctic will take the path of least resistance, which in this case will be over Kamchatka and across the North Pacific, not North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.