January 2015 Pattern Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Bordering on horror cold ... for a state of acclimation that is not currently very well adapted. The 00z/06z GFS' notion of drilling -30C at 850mb as far SE as potentially Albany ... nicking -25C over Boston, as near as day 5, that would likely mean having to cleave into the archives to match.  Perhaps as far back as the brutality blues of 2002.   

 

I lived in Winchester, Ma, then.  I recall the car's engine almost not turning over due to the solidification of crank case oil type cold that bit in for a couple of weeks late January that year.  -15F at dawn or even deeper perhaps.  I think one day away from the coast the highs might have stayed at or beneath 0F, if memory serves.  

 

The operational Euro was equally as intriguing ...but perhaps belaying the deeper blue for D7/7.5... In fact, it's got the impression there of an 18-hour period where the temperature profile is entirely dominated by the advection terms -- i.e., sun shining or not.  But it wasn't warm for the D5 pulse either -- just a tick or two tamer.   

 

It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves over the next few days/modeling cycles, because usually these types of extreme events in the middle to late middle range tend to get muted as said time frame elapse.  The reason for that is because, when dealing with extremes we are inherently discussing anomalies that push the envelope of Terran physics.  I mean, it can only get so cold, so hot, that hurricane, so strong. That tornado, that powerful.  That nor'easter ...and on and so on.  Such that what "can go wrong" is really the only possibility that remains.  That antecedent pattern that leads to those cold intrusions are about ideally right, such that not much righter can happen. 

 

You get that...?   It's kind of complicated, but think of it as, if the only unexpected/unanticipated influences that can emerge are negative, the odds are, the extreme solution gets polluted. 

 

Anyway, here we have had a really long multi-day signal though. And since we had a strong -EPO interval loading cold, the rising PNA right now most certainly, in all, offers a huge teleconnector support for intrusions into the middle latitudes over central and eastern N/A.  First -EPO, wanes --> rising PNA, is just the sort of spatial-temporal lagging that precedes a cold wave event.  Much in the way we can see early markers for summer heat/sonoran heat release events... This is winter time!   

 

I thought about starting a new thread to outline/annotate this progression of larger scaled teleconnectors, but ...seems a little redundant when we already have a conceptual/pattern thread.  I do think, though, that as the time nears ... if the signal remains as impressive, obs for historic notes and so forth may be warranted. 

[Ginx snewx]

Bordering on horror cold ... for a state of acclimation that is not currently very well adapted. The 00z/06z GFS' notion of drilling -30C at 850mb as far SE as potentially Albany ... nicking -25C over Boston, as near as day 5, that would likely mean having to cleave into the archives to match. Perhaps as far back as the brutality blues of 2002.

I lived in Winchester, Ma, then. I recall the car's engine almost not turning over due to the solidification of crank case oil type cold that bit in for a couple of weeks late January that year. -15F at dawn or even deeper perhaps. I think one day away from the coast the highs might have stayed at or beneath 0F, if memory serves.

The operational Euro was equally as intriguing ...but perhaps belaying the deeper blue for D7/7.5... In fact, it's got the impression there of an 18-hour period where the temperature profile is entirely dominated by the advection terms -- i.e., sun or not. But it wasn't warm for the D5 pulse either -- just a tick or two tamer.

It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves over the next few days/modeling cycles, because usually these types of extreme events in the middle to late middle range tend to get muted as said time frame elapse. The reason for that is because, when dealing with extremes we are inherently discussing anomalies that push the envelope of Terran physics. I mean, it can only get so cold, so hot, that hurricane, so strong. That tornado, that powerful. That nor'easter ...and on and so on. Such that what "can go wrong" is really the only possibility the remains. That antecedent pattern that leads to those cold intrusions are about ideally right, such that not much righter can happen.

You get that...? It's kind of complicated, but think of it as, if the only unexpected/unanticipated influences that can emerge are negative, the odds are, the extreme solution gets polluted.

Anyway, here we have had a really long multi-day signal though. And since we have a strong -EPO interval loading cold, the rising PNA right now most certainly, in all, offers a huge teleconnector support for intrusions into the middle latitudes over central and eastern N/A. First -EPO, wanes --> rising PNA, is just the sort of spatial-temporal lagging that precedes a cold wave event. Much in the way we can see early markers for summer heat/sonoran heat release events... This is winter time!

Siberian cold release?

[JC-CT]

Tip:

Not sure if these things tend to get muted as they arrive...

I asked a similar question a while ago about extreme height anomaly events showing up on models and whether they tend to overdo them, and the overwhelming response here was the exact opposite of what I expected - that models pick up on the extremely anomalous events better because they are such a strong signal.

I tend to agree with you that numerical prediction probably has a bias that it tends to correct towards climo. But it is possible that it doesn't, and that the low probability of extreme events is fully accounted for in the low probability of them showing up on models to begin with.

Do you know if there are any studies on it?

[Typhoon Tip]

Siberian cold release?

 

Ha ha!  Lol, why the hell not.  Although ... to be fair we'd have to track these 850mb plumes back in time to test their origins. It's also possible to pull cold down more from the Norwegian side. 

 

I remember being real little in the 1970s, but cognizant enough to understand when the news reported that some of that cold was originating like that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip:

Not sure if these things tend to get muted as they arrive...

I asked a similar question a while ago about extreme height anomaly events showing up on models and whether they tend to overdo them, and the overwhelming response here was the exact opposite of what I expected - that models pick up on the extremely anomalous events better because they are such a strong signal.

I tend to agree with you that numerical prediction probably has a bias that it tends to correct towards climo. But it is possible that it doesn't, and that the low probability of extreme events is fully accounted for in the low probability of them showing up on models to begin with.

Do you know if there are any studies on it?

 

I wasn't really talking about climatology, tho -

 

Climate is the result of what I was talking about -- there is a subtle difference.  

 

What I said was, extreme events, when modeled out in time, are relying on a lot of factors "behaving", for lack of better word.  If the Earth can only produce so much dynamic power (shy of attracting a comet impact!) in any sort of extreme, the only remain factors are negative ones.  

 

Climate contains both that, and the everyday pedestrian event, and none event, rolled up and divided by N.  

 

The reason the former paragraph is important is that when looking at these eye-candy solutions for wild weather, regardless of type, ... well, the whole conversation is just another approach to not trusting a Day 9 Euro bomb.  The same factorizations/chaotic emergence and deconstructive interferences not presently known - 

[JC-CT]

I wasn't really talking about climatology, tho -

Climate is the result of what I was talking about -- there is a subtle difference.

What I said was, extreme events, when modeled out in time, are relying on a lot of factors "behaving", for lack of better word. If the Earth can only produce so much dynamic power (shy of attracting a comet impact!) in any sort of extreme, the only remain factors are negative ones.

Climate contains both that, and the everyday pedestrian event, and none event, rolled up and divided by N.

The reason the former paragraph is important is that when looking at these eye-candy solutions for wild weather, regardless of type, ... well, the whole conversation is just another approach to not trusting a Day 9 Euro bomb. The same factorizations/chaotic emergence and deconstructive interferences not presently known -

I didn't mean climo in that sense. I was more referring to a modeled 4sd anomaly muting down to a 3sd anomaly verification.

It's odd to think that any weather phenomenon we will experience in our lifetimes will come anywhere close to the envelope of what the planet is capable of producing, so I'm not sure I buy the "it can only get so cold so it will trend warmer" argument either.

[Typhoon Tip]

Mike Ventrice is touting a 3.5 sigma warming event over Siberia.  I'm not entirely sure if it is a forecast or an occurring event....these guys who Tweet do a great job, but they write in a cryptic fashion to an amateur like me.

 

Between 10 days and two weeks ago, the GEFs started popping off 10mb warming nodes  ...  I began monitoring the daily model output for the 30mb to get a sense of the overall mass, and it's been tooth pulling anticipating 30 hPa sigma level's response, and not seeing much.  But finally ...about 3 to 5 days back, it's been showing up there.  What's interesting is the 70 and 100 hPa levels are maintaining a warm node in the vicinity of 60th parallel all along, so it's difficult to assess whether the models are attempting to propagate a warm anomaly, or if this is just typical intra-winter seasonal warm nodes the occasionally emerge and decay without showing the more classic propagation -- which in every case that I have studied where there was a -AO response, "downwelling" was a requirement.  

 

It is important to note, though, that -AOs come about for other reasons, too.  And presently, the CDC is sniffing out a downward mode in the extended.  

[Allsnow]

Well the further north, the better and we may relax near day 10, but it looks decent up here afterwards.

Obviously I hate the warmth that he forecasts and the way he favors the Euro ensembles, but he has been pretty spot on so far this winter. He canceled January a week ago so we will see what happens...this is for nyc metro..

[tamarack]

Bordering on horror cold ... for a state of acclimation that is not currently very well adapted. The 00z/06z GFS' notion of drilling -30C at 850mb as far SE as potentially Albany ... nicking -25C over Boston, as near as day 5, that would likely mean having to cleave into the archives to match.  Perhaps as far back as the brutality blues of 2002.   

 

I lived in Winchester, Ma, then.  I recall the car's engine almost not turning over due to the solidification of crank case oil type cold that bit in for a couple of weeks late January that year.  -15F at dawn or even deeper perhaps.  I think one day away from the coast the highs might have stayed at or beneath 0F, if memory serves.  

 

This is about the 3rd post recently that has said 2002 when meaning 2004.  2002 was the one winter mild enough - lowest was -12 and just one max below 20 - to allow my peach tree's blossom buds to survive and bear fruit.  (Then the dozen mornings of 2003 in the -20s killed it.)  Jan 2004 is the coldest month since we moved to the foothills in 1998.  Morning lows were cold though I've had 5 that bottomed out lower, but consecutive afternoons in mid Jan with highs of -11 and -8 (with wind) reminded us of Fort Kent.  Apart from the -5 max (with -SN) last Jan 2, my coldest afternoon here has  been-2, also in Jan 2004.  Maybe another subzero high this coming Wed/Thurs?

[Typhoon Tip]

I didn't mean climo in that sense. I was more referring to a modeled 4sd anomaly muting down to a 3sd anomaly verification.

It's odd to think that any weather phenomenon we will experience in our lifetimes will come anywhere close to the envelope of what the planet is capable of producing, so I'm not sure I buy the "it can only get so cold so it will trend warmer" argument either.

 

I am not sure I agree with your last sentence.    Just because one may not experience the most the Earth can do, does not mean logically that there is no deviation boundary from a norm.  You are never going to get a 1000 mph jet like you do on Neptune, on Earth, so somewhere in between the absurd, and what we have observed, there is a limit.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Bordering on horror cold ... for a state of acclimation that is not currently very well adapted. The 00z/06z GFS' notion of drilling -30C at 850mb as far SE as potentially Albany ... nicking -25C over Boston, as near as day 5, that would likely mean having to cleave into the archives to match.  Perhaps as far back as the brutality blues of 2002.   

 

I lived in Winchester, Ma, then.  I recall the car's engine almost not turning over due to the solidification of crank case oil type cold that bit in for a couple of weeks late January that year.  -15F at dawn or even deeper perhaps.  I think one day away from the coast the highs might have stayed at or beneath 0F, if memory serves.  

 

This is about the 3rd post recently that has said 2002 when meaning 2004.  2002 was the one winter mild enough - lowest was -12 and just one max below 20 - to allow my peach tree's blossom buds to survive and bear fruit.  (Then the dozen mornings of 2003 in the -20s killed it.)  Jan 2004 is the coldest month since we moved to the foothills in 1998.  Morning lows were cold though I've had 5 that bottomed out lower, but consecutive afternoons in mid Jan with highs of -11 and -8 (with wind) reminded us of Fort Kent.  Apart from the -5 max (with -SN) last Jan 2, my coldest afternoon here has  been-2, also in Jan 2004.  Maybe another subzero high this coming Wed/Thurs?

 

 Yeah, I have a memory like a steel trap for events ... when they situate in time?  Heh... It might have been 2004, sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

Ha ha! Lol, why the hell not. Although ... to be fair we'd have to track these 850mb plumes back in time to test their origins. It's also possible to pull cold down more from the Norwegian side.

I remember being real little in the 1970s, but cognizant enough to understand when the news reported that some of that cold was originating like that.

Tip

[JC-CT]

I am not sure I agree with your last sentence. Just because one may not experience the most the Earth can do, does not mean logically that there is no deviation boundary from a norm. You are never going to get a 1000 mph jet like you do on Neptune, on Earth, so somewhere in between the absurd, and what we have observed, there is a limit.

Of course, I just doubt it is -25 850s over Boston.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Obviously I hate the warmth that he forecasts and the way he favors the Euro ensembles, but he has been pretty spot on so far this winter. He canceled January a week ago so we will see what happens...this is for nyc metro..

How can you cancel a month before it even starts? All the pattern has to do is flip in the last week with s few snow events and averages can be met.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip

 

Interesting .. that would argue this cold source/origin was not Siberia - 

[Allsnow]

How can you cancel a month before it even starts? All the pattern has to do is flip in the last week with s few snow events and averages can be met.

I'm not disagreeing with you! Just referring to what bluewave believes...I think the Euro will improve once it figures out that the mjo will not die in phase 5

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I'm not disagreeing with you! Just referring to what bluewave believes...I think the Euro will improve once it figures out that the mjo will not die in phase 5

It seems like a compromise between the gfs and euro may be in order. The euro ens have been improving for the last several runs.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh my!

Look at BTV's FRH grid/thermal profile for hour 60

 

60000533507 03821 272915 98 85 78 74

 

for those that may not know ... That is -26 at 800mb, -22 at 900mb, and -15C at 980mb (or whatever surface sigma they may be up there)

 

Boston's -21 at 800mb at that time. 

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting .. that would argue this cold source/origin was not Siberia -

home grown bud, NH manufacturers

[weathafella]

Oh my!

Look at BTV's FRH grid/thermal profile for hour 60

 

60000533507 03821 272915 98 85 78 74

 

for those that may not know ... That is -26 at 800mb, -22 at 900mb, and -15C at 980mb (or whatever surface sigma they may be up there)

 

Boston's -21 at 800mb at that time.

Think of what these may read at the same lead Tuesday at 12Z.

[Typhoon Tip]

Think of what these may read at the same lead Tuesday at 12Z.

 

I know it!

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would love to see Jan 2004 go down for my personal low. -19.4F at the hacienda

[Typhoon Tip]

A product that is seldom invoked which should be, is the GGEM ensemble means 10-Day anomaly product. It's been very good in the past preceding cold events, and here ... this is pretty classic looking with the Jan 03 Jan 15 mean approaching -2SD over Ontario -- which might translate to -3SD cold at our local latitude, should the flow tip oozy N (our best cold often comes from a sneaky knife)

 

[weathafella]

A product that is seldom invoked which should be, is the GGEM ensemble means 10-Day anomaly product. It's been very good in the past preceding cold events, and here ... this is pretty classic looking with the Jan 03 Jan 15 mean approaching -2SD over Ontario -- which might translate to -3SD cold at our local latitude, should the flow tip oozy N (our best cold often comes from a sneaky knife)

John, that's not a -3sd. Each full number represents something like 0.43 sd. A common misconception.

[Typhoon Tip]

John, that's not a -3sd. Each full number represents something like 0.43 sd. A common misconception.

 

That's why I said "approaching 2", Jerry... 

 

I didn't misconceive anything...   There's a 3.8 in there, so -1.6ish is appraching -2.

 

Also, -1.5 to -2.0 at 55N may translate to -3 or even more in SNE, should the flow tip right -

[weathafella]

That's why I said "approaching 2", Jerry... 

 

I didn't misconceive anything...   There's a 3.8 in there, so -1.6ish is appraching -2.

 

Also, -1.5 to -2.0 at 55N may translate to -3 or even more in SNE, should the flow tip right -

Yeah I read -3 in your post but realized it was clad and not representative of verbatim. My bad.

[Ginx snewx]

John, that's not a -3sd. Each full number represents something like 0.43 sd. A common misconception.

most reliable had -4 for next week when I posted it last week. Keeping in mind that's a ten day average,most impressive

[CoastalWx]

Pretty stormy look on the EPS.

[CoastalWx]

That's almost a borderline weenie look in the 11-15 day. The ridge over the Yukon allows for redevelopers. It's not very cold, but looked stormy with little closed contour lows signifying that. Hopefully the "correction vector" is correct from two days ago.

[CoastalWx]

Nobody corrected him.  And his points are all valid. All I said was that the run from two days ago may not occur in that way. I simply said I didn't think the pattern was that bad if you have even a GEFS/EPS compromise. We all know the EPS is usually the better guidance, but anybody with any long range experience will also tell you that you can't always dry hump that guidance too.