CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z GEFS relaxed just a bit, but the Canadian was a bit better. It's probably will be a compromise (well we will see what the 12z EPS does) which is still serviceable in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z GEFS relaxed just a bit, but the Canadian was a bit better. It's probably will be a compromise (well we will see what the 12z EPS does) which is still serviceable in the heart of winter. Kind of like euro op d9/10 which would give opportunities. So for those who said toss the GEFS now understand that in the past 2 runs (we'll see about euro ens) each has caved towards each other some supporting the compromise idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The models have been struggling this winter with events even inside 2-3 days. I think each model has had a success or two. Some more. I'm not putting much stock in extended long range. Any of the advertised solutions could happen. Just don't know. Some winters you can lock storm tracks or even patterns long in advance. This isn't one of those winters it seems. Makes it interesting and frustrating..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not a bad EPS run. It may get dicey near day 10 for a bit, but again, ridge tries building in the longer range near the west coast. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not a bad EPS run. It may get dicey near day 10 for a bit, but again, ridge tries building in the longer range near the west coast. I'll take it. Yeah I thought it was another slight improvement from the 00z run. We could make a living on that pattern in the 11-15 day. The D10-11 "scare" has been around for a while...we mentioned that is when the PNA goes negative for a time with more of a SW trough and the wrist-slitters could be back out in full force for that if we end up getting a cutter around that time. There's a lot of cold air over us when that initial pattern morphs so we could handle some imperfection...just have to ackowledge a full cutter can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah I thought it was another slight improvement from the 00z run. We could make a living on that pattern in the 11-15 day. The D10-11 "scare" has been around for a while...we mentioned that is when the PNA goes negative for a time with more of a SW trough and the wrist-slitters could be back out in full force for that if we end up getting a cutter around that time. There's a lot of cold air over us when that initial pattern morphs so we could handle some imperfection...just have to ackowledge a full cutter can happen. Yeah and even the cutter isn't a guarantee with that look either..esp if that vortex takes a little time to move out. But I like the heights trying to build back after mid month. Good time for it. Also, it could be quite a cold stretch starting Monday for maybe a week or so? Kind of flying under the radar a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah and even the cutter isn't a guarantee with that look either..esp if that vortex takes a little time to move out. But I like the heights trying to build back after mid month. Good time for it. Also, it could be quite a cold stretch starting Monday for maybe a week or so? Kind of flying under the radar a bit. Warmest day might be the clipper on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Would be nice to get this crusty system, a powder clipper and then a pre-relaxation storm next Friday or Sat. Then we take a short break and are back at it again in a few days. That seems to be a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah and even the cutter isn't a guarantee with that look either..esp if that vortex takes a little time to move out. But I like the heights trying to build back after mid month. Good time for it. Also, it could be quite a cold stretch starting Monday for maybe a week or so? Kind of flying under the radar a bit. I thought Wankum was all over those wind chills days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I thought Wankum was all over those wind chills days ago. Oh yeah, how could I forget. I expect a snow map from him about the clipper next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Again, tossing GEFS would have been silly. Overall pattern is ok for mid winter. Storm chances and hopefully snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not boring, holy heck . Air masses changing faster than Rays undies after leaving the shed. so many chances at putting down some blankets, its all we asked for. The cold is about as impressive as seen . even that day 8 look with a 1052 squarely overhead with -10 850S with fresh snow cover is going to be one helluva radiator night, if progs are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not a bad EPS run. It may get dicey near day 10 for a bit, but again, ridge tries building in the longer range near the west coast. I'll take it.i see a +epo, +nao, and above normal heights across the entire country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 i see a +epo, +nao, and above normal heights across the entire country We can deal with above normal heights in Jan. I just want to see how the EC changes and it lost the awful look it had yesterday. The models were also painting lots of oranges across the country over a week ago for next week. The +NAO sucks, but we have to deal with it. It gets ugly in the 10 day timeframe a bit, but looks better after. And that's if the EC is 100% right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 We can deal with above normal heights in Jan. I just want to see how the EC changes and it lost the awful look it had yesterday. The models were also painting lots of oranges across the country over a week ago for next week. The +NAO sucks, but we have to deal with it. It gets ugly in the 10 day timeframe a bit, but looks better after. And that's if the EC is 100% right.And he's in Central Jersey lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 twc has it only in upper teens thursday, near 30 wed and fri....what model they using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 twc has it only in upper teens thursday, near 30 wed and fri....what model they using? Probably MOS related. They'll come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS has a nice ridge in the west. Pattern doesn't look terrible at all moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This is what scares me. Does the pattern change stick around or does everything remain progressive? It's great that we are ushering in change, but hopefully modeling can look positive past the 10th or so in the next few days. I think there may be a 'mild up' around 10th-12th after this extremely cold shot of air. Still fantasy range modeling but I hope to see more positive guidance as we head forward and no SE ridge. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOTING A PATTERN CHANGE WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THEEASTERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST DURING THISTIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THOUGHDOES SLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This is what scares me. Does the pattern change stick around or does everything remain progressive? It's great that we are ushering in change, but hopefully modeling can look positive past the 10th or so in the next few days. I think there may be a 'mild up' around 10th-12th after this extremely cold shot of air. Still fantasy range modeling but I hope to see more positive guidance as we head forward and no SE ridge. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... NOTING A PATTERN CHANGE WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THOUGH DOES SLOW. Relax..everything looks good..and they talked about a brief 1-2 day possible relax yesterday..that wasn't anywhere near a certainty. Enjoy deep winter ..it's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Relax..everything looks good..and they talked about a brief 1-2 day possible relax yesterday..that wasn't anywhere near a certainty. Enjoy deep winter ..it's hereI believe winter is here and also agree with you. Pattern will relax, but not sure how yet. There is the outside chance it doesn't settle for us well. I think that needs to be realized. Didn't intend to raise fears or be a debbie downer but just looking ahead. Modeling really has been horrendus in the long range so it's difficult to guess.I think one or two widespread colder events at least before the relaxation. Models hinting at a couple nice clipper events including that first one. Hopefully that continues. If we went cutter to a disappearing clipper act without boosting some seasonal totals I fear for this board's sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NYC weenies sucking tailpipes this morning over the Euro ens lol. When will they learn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 NYC weenies sucking tailpipes this morning over the Euro ens lol. When will they learn? They looked better than 12z, which was better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 They looked better than 12z, which was better than 00z. They're posting about torches and warmth..Even some of the better hobbyists . They don't show that at all..Bluewave is a great poster and very knowledgable..but the dude's off his rocker on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 They're posting about torches and warmth..Even some of the better hobbyists . They don't show that at all..Bluewave is a great poster and very knowledgable..but the dude's off his rocker on this one Well the further north, the better and we may relax near day 10, but it looks decent up here afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Well the further north, the better and we may relax near day 10, but it looks decent up here afterwards. Would you say NYC and LI get 2-4 inches with first clipper, Tuesday evening ? Gets severe cold 1/5-1/10 and a modest moderation 1/11-1/20. I think Boston on north are in great shape during relaxation period, but think NYC just misses out from 1/10-1/20 and gets stuck in 35-40 days and cold rains, for a boring mid month stretch. What is with the 1/17 blizzard on the old GFS, any chance of that being right ?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Would you say NYC and LI get 2-4 inches with first clipper, Tuesday evening ? Gets severe cold 1/5-1/10 and a modest moderation 1/11-1/20. I think Boston on north are in great shape during relaxation period, but think NYC just misses out from 1/10-1/20 and gets stuck in 35-40 days and cold rains, for a boring mid month stretch. What is with the 1/17 blizzard on the old GFS, any chance of that being right ?????? The clipper depends on the track. I'd hate to guess right now..but maybe an inch or two to start. Going forward, it depends on the ridge out west and how sharp it is because there is a bit of a SE ridge potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Jan 2011-light with waves coming at us every 4 days and reload after reload of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I like the highs in the single digits here Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Mike Ventrice is touting a 3.5 sigma warming event over Siberia. I'm not entirely sure if it is a forecast or an occurring event....these guys who Tweet do a great job, but they write in a cryptic fashion to an amateur like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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