Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The difference between the EC and GEFS are night and day. EC cancels Jan by mid month, GEFS keep it rolling. GEFS has been better this winter? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We very well rely on a robust Feb/March couplet. Epic fail that would make my.Jan call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The difference between the EC and GEFS are night and day. EC cancels Jan by mid month, GEFS keep it rolling.Oh boy. We know what happened last time when they differed for Dec. Well we'll need to enjoy the next 10-14 days it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jesus guys, relax. I stated what they showed. Perhaps look at my post in the model thread. And the EC has sucked lately. Whether it is right or wrong nobody knows. It does try to rebuild ridging a bit later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jesus guys, relax. I stated what they showed. Perhaps look at my post in the model thread. And the EC has sucked lately. Whether it is right or wrong nobody knows. It does try to rebuild ridging a bit later in the run. Let's get an nao. Lacking that we have issues long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Let's get an nao. Lacking that we have issues long term. Agree there. I don't see any sign yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Just doesn't give one a warm, fuzzy, car bomb type feeling having to hope the GEFS are right in continuing deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Just doesn't give one a warm, fuzzy, car bomb type feeling having to hope the GEFS are right in continuing deep winter Well the Canadian is on its side too. Quite a few EC members aren't entirely there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jesus guys, relax. I stated what they showed. Perhaps look at my post in the model thread. And the EC has sucked lately. Whether it is right or wrong nobody knows. It does try to rebuild ridging a bit later in the run. haha I bet you are are lowering your expecations Calmly, while weenies are doing the same just not calmly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The GEFS owned the euro ensembles in the 2012/13 winter season if I recall. It's not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 EC.is a nightmare.....but what is there to cancel? The 1.5 months of snow? Yeah lol. We may need a 2012-13 winter to save this one. If January ends up toast that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I had asked this a couple of days ago but I don't think anyone responded. I thought I read that BN temps in the far N Atlantic caused a +NAO and that is the condition this yr. Would make sense I guess since I believe that a warmer N Pacific last yr helped the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I had asked this a couple of days ago but I don't think anyone responded. I thought I read that BN temps in the far N Atlantic caused a +NAO and that is the condition this yr. Would make sense I guess since I believe that a warmer N Pacific last yr helped the -EPO. Well they can feedback, but IMHO SSTs are overrated in the NPAC and NATL. They help feedback to an extent, but the waters are more a product of the pattern..not the other way around. We've had a strong strat vortex and there is no coincidence the NAO has been very + too. After years of getting a -NAO every time a polar bear farted, mother nature is balancing things out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 That's definitely not a very good look on the Euro ensembles way out in la-la range. Hopefully that shifts back a bit more favorable(they've been very volatile as Scott already mentioned). Prior to that though, the clipper looks nice on the ensembles and that cold shot is pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 There does seem to be some correlation, but what do I know? Anyway I hope it's not too correlated bc aren't we headed for a period of colder N Atl? Think it's called AMO or something like that. I know the NAO can be overrated. But this far S in SNE I wouldn't want to go years with a predominantly + NAO. But like you said could be nature balancing things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 There does seem to be some correlation, but what do I know? Anyway I hope it's not too correlated bc aren't we headed for a period of colder N Atl? Think it's called AMO or something like that. I know the NAO can be overrated. But this far S in SNE I wouldn't want to go years with a predominantly + NAO. But like you said could be nature balancing things out. Well its not just the AMO...we entered a cold AMO back around 1960 through the mid 1990s...for the first half of that cold AMO period, we had a lot of -NAO winters in the 1960s and 1970s. But then we went through a period of predominately +NAOs in the 1980s and early 1990s. The cold pool up by Greenland acts more as a feedback rather than root cause. But the NAO clearly has some decadal oscillations that may be independent of SSTs...or at least not in phase with them...perhaps there is some sort of a lag. It's not understood very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like those euro weeklies that everyone thought was on crack from last Thursday are going to verify. Look at that change over AK. What an ugly look ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like those euro weeklies that everyone thought was on crack from last Thursday are going to verify. Look at that change over AK. What an ugly look ugh. Apparently you did not see the new ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Apparently you did not see the new ones.From when Monday or today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 From when Monday or today? They have week 2 as shaky which is no coincidence that the ensembles show it, but then bring higher heights back into NW Canada week 3 and esp week 4. Obviously these are the weeklies which aren't always correct, but I don't see the pattern reversing. If anything they are forecasting an improvement. Still a +NAO though but very cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 They have week 2 as shaky which is no coincidence that the ensembles show it, but then bring higher heights back into NW Canada week 3 and esp week 4. Obviously these are the weeklies which aren't always correct, but I don't see the pattern reversing. If anything they are forecasting an improvement. Still a +NAO though but very cold in Canada.Very cold weeks 1-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Very cold weeks 1-4? No, not here. Week 2 is shaky as evident by the ensembles. Verbatim they are not cold, but a week ago, they also had temps near normal next week when it will be frigid. Hence why I always ignore srfc temps from seasonal models, and just look at H5. That tells me all I need to know. Those model srfc temps are usually real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Very cold weeks 1-4?Weeks temps 1: 0 2: -4 3: 0 4: 0 It seems like the MJO is driving the pattern...if just going off of that one would believe the GEFS have the better idea..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The fate of this winter will be determined over the next 10 days. I just took a gander at MJO guidance and it's muddy at best. NCEP's weekly publication stated that the MJO is moderately strong and is in "constructive" interference with the surrounding medium. That's code for why the PNA has been predominantly negative, and it would seem to be subtropical forcing at work... Be that as it may, they go on to state that the wave should migrate into the western Pacific Basin by week two. So perhaps no coincidence we see the PNA forecast to become positive at that time, as the west Pac is 6th through the end of the 8th wave spaces. I don't think it so much comes down to the next 10 days, per se - although, with a -EPO loading cold occasionally, an event can transpire anomalous, relative to, at any time. Barring the anomaly .. the better susceptibility to storminess would likely be mid month. Also, don't forget March 1956. Snow deficits turned into surplus on the season between March 1 and the 31st that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Weeks temps 1: 0 2: -4 3: 0 4: 0 It seems like the MJO is driving the pattern...if just going off of that one would believe the GEFS have the better idea..... That's not right. They are warmer, and week 1 is the one that is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 That's not right. They are warmer, and week 1 is the one that is cold. This was from 12/29... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This was from 12/29... Oh, ok. Again, I really caution those who use those anomalies. The srfc temps always look weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Oh, ok. Again, I really caution those who use those anomalies. The srfc temps always look weird. Agree. Plus they will never pick up on low level cold. Again I feel the gefs have a better idea on the pattern going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 LOL I mean it's comical the differences with the GEFS and EC, esp this 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Agree. Plus they will never pick up on low level cold. Again I feel the gefs have a better idea on the pattern going forward I sort of think that too, but I can't discount what is usually the more accurate data set..so if one sort of compromises, it would work..esp up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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