January 2015 Pattern Discussion

[CapturedNature]

With the train wreck that the December discussion thread has been and thoughts focusing more on the new year, I thought I'd start a new thread for that purpose.  Hopefully January goes better!

[CT Valley Snowman]

I think best case scenario, the 29th and 30th system organizes and intensifies far enough north to produce a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall, mainly south of the Pike and away from the immediate coast before escaping to the east. Then after a period of winter-like cold. The next moisture laden storm cuts west with the primary low but cold air at the surface gives us a period of overturning snow to sleet to ice to plain rain with possibly an additional 1-3 2-4 but mainly north of the Pike this time.

Worst case scenario: Storm 1 is cirrus and Storm 2 is only cold rain and given the lousy pattern I can see why scenario 2 is probably expected by some but I think that we will end up closer to scenario 1 than 2.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll take grey and spitting snow any day over sun and 50s. But if it was rain then I'd take the sun.

Aesthetics.

At any rate I still really like the pattern going forward in January.

[CoastalWx]

I'll take grey and spitting snow any day over sun and 50s. But if it was rain then I'd take the sun.

Aesthetics.

At any rate I still really like the pattern going forward in January.

Yeah I'll take my chances with that look.

[powderfreak]

Yeah I'll take my chances with that look.

It'll be January in New England...it's bound to snow at some point. But I could see us getting to the 7-10th before a decent threat comes by. That 3-4th event has decent support for a cut or SWFE. Hopefully front end snow.

[TalcottWx]

Brief cooler air works in after the 29th. Full winter mode maybe delayed until Jan 5-10? I'm hoping to avoid that storm around the 3rd, we will see.

[Damage In Tolland]

Brief cooler air works in after the 29th. Full winter mode maybe delayed until Jan 5-10? I'm hoping to avoid that storm around the 3rd, we will see.

It BN to N everyday starting Monday

[weathafella]

It BN to N everyday starting Monday

AN Monday and maybe Tuesday also.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We move on. First week may be iffy with a cutter but I got good feelings for the back half of winter. Plenty of time to makeup ground.

[powderfreak]

The weenies will like the 00z ECM...gives BWI a couple feet at Day 8. Crushing the south coast of New England too. That's 40/70's nightmare right there...almost a KU that leaves little north of I-90...18"+ for mid-Atlantic, 12"+ for the Cape and S.SNE, tapering to a few/couple inches north of the Pike.

[CT Valley Snowman]

From cutter to scraper for some in one op run lol. I'm sure it will change again.

[CT Valley Snowman]

The Euro does give credence to the idea that this has SWFE potential. I personally am leaning towards a Miller B and at least an initial period of some overrunning warm air advection wintry precip with the initial cold air mass in place but its a looooooooooong way's off.

[dendrite]

I just cleared all of the obs, Dec talk, and banter out of here. Let's try to keep this thread about January discussion only.

[OceanStWx]

The 00z CMC ensembles and Euro EPS, and the 06z GEFS all agree on maintaining high heights over AK and a general troughiness in the western US (-PNA). That's going to provide a source of cold and chances for above normal precip. They also continue the higher than normal heights across the SE, so we may ride the gradient for good or bad. But the consensus looks pretty good at this range.

 

Very little reason to go sky diving without a parachute.

[Damage In Tolland]

Everything seems to be pointing at the gradient pattern we;ve been discussing. A lot of snow to ice events for Central and SNE while all snow events from NH on north. Probably see some of those days where it's snowing from NYC north while DC is 65 and sunny over the next few weeks with that Se ridge. Maybe as we get later in the month and lay down some snowpack..the boundary and ensuing storm track  will get pushed south

[mahk_webstah]

Good! Roughly when do we get a legit threat? Are we dry thru jan 4?

The 00z CMC ensembles and Euro EPS, and the 06z GEFS all agree on maintaining high heights over AK and a general troughiness in the western US (-PNA). That's going to provide a source of cold and chances for above normal precip. They also continue the higher than normal heights across the SE, so we may ride the gradient for good or bad. But the consensus looks pretty good at this range.

Very little reason to go sky diving without a parachute.

[OceanStWx]

Good! Roughly when do we get a legit threat? Are we dry thru jan 4?

 

 

I think it's unlikely it takes that long to see something. Models are notoriously bad identifying and timing these shortwaves as they eject out of the west.

 

I mean the SE ridge coupled with cold in Canada is going to set up a pretty decent baroclinic zone nearby. Doesn't take much of a disturbance to produce precipitation. However if legit threat means big event, that's a little more tricky.

[eduggs]

The 00z CMC ensembles and Euro EPS, and the 06z GEFS all agree on maintaining high heights over AK and a general troughiness in the western US (-PNA). That's going to provide a source of cold and chances for above normal precip. They also continue the higher than normal heights across the SE, so we may ride the gradient for good or bad. But the consensus looks pretty good at this range.

 

Very little reason to go sky diving without a parachute.

We've been getting these head fakes for the past 4 weeks.  The last time I can remember the ensemble consensus looking unfavorable out that far, I proceeded to get a week of snow.

 

I like high heights over AK.  But a mean trof axis in the west with the current state of the Atlantic will probably give us a few storms to our west.  Time of year helps I suppose.

 

I think everyone is eager and ready for long range promise to transition into trackable mid-range threats.

[weathafella]

We've been getting these head fakes for the past 4 weeks.  The last time I can remember the ensemble consensus looking unfavorable out that far, I proceeded to get a week of snow.

 

I like high heights over AK.  But a mean trof axis in the west with the current state of the Atlantic will probably give us a few storms to our west.  Time of year helps I suppose.

 

I think everyone is eager and ready for long range promise to transition into trackable mid-range threats.

If we could manage an NAO it's party time should EPO remain.

[OceanStWx]

We've been getting these head fakes for the past 4 weeks.  The last time I can remember the ensemble consensus looking unfavorable out that far, I proceeded to get a week of snow.

 

I like high heights over AK.  But a mean trof axis in the west with the current state of the Atlantic will probably give us a few storms to our west.  Time of year helps I suppose.

 

I think everyone is eager and ready for long range promise to transition into trackable mid-range threats.

 

If you're looking for a 48 hour dump from a benchmark storm, this probably isn't your pattern. But there is no reason the current forecast (which is going pretty much as stated at this point) can't produce several moderate events in the coming first part of 2015.

[mahk_webstah]

Thanks for the response...that seems both logical and scientific, a 3-6 would be nice to get things restarted. With the offsetting in won't take much for ittofeel like winter again. I melted down yesterday along with my snowpack. It was holding strong for weeks thru the assault and finally Thursday night was too much to handle. It and I melted yesterday. Our first winter is over so let's get started on 2nd winter.

I think it's unlikely it takes that long to see something. Models are notoriously bad identifying and timing these shortwaves as they eject out of the west.

I mean the SE ridge coupled with cold in Canada is going to set up a pretty decent baroclinic zone nearby. Doesn't take much of a disturbance to produce precipitation. However if legit threat means big event, that's a little more tricky.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The weenies will like the 00z ECM...gives BWI a couple feet at Day 8. Crushing the south coast of New England too. That's 40/70's nightmare right there...almost a KU that leaves little north of I-90...18"+ for mid-Atlantic, 12"+ for the Cape and S.SNE, tapering to a few/couple inches north of the Pike.

Yes....and I'd be the first to admit that I'd rather see 60°.

[NorEastermass128]

Yes....and I'd be the first to admit that I'd rather see 60°.

GFS gives us rain.  Call me crazy, but I'd expect the actual outcome to be a much colder depiction than the 12z GFS.  I just don't see a 1004mb LP kicking out a stout HP to our north like that - especially after days and days of 20s to near 30 beforehand.  

 

I think we put down a bullet proof blanket (snow > ip > rn) by next Sunday for most of SNE.  CNE/NNE could do quite well.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs and para are pretty different. Gfs is a cutter for the 3/4 event and the para is what looks like a nice track, but still doesn't end up all snow for most of SNE

I think that depiction is suspect, that should be snow I think with that look

[40/70 Benchmark]

The gfs and para are pretty different. Gfs is a cutter for the 3/4 event and the para is what looks like a nice track, but still doesn't end up all snow for most of SNE

I think that depiction is suspect, that should be snow I think with that look

Stop looking at the old GFS....only has 2.5 weeks of operation.

[OceanStWx]

Stop looking at the old GFS....only has 2.5 weeks of operation.

 

I find it interesting that the GFS and the parellel GFS are basically completely opposed on the EPO forecast in the long range. The parallel brings it back closer to positive (GFS drills it farther negative).

 

Now given the propensity for the GFS to always be cold in the extended, maybe they indeed fixed a flaw with the upgrade?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I find it interesting that the GFS and the parellel GFS are basically completely opposed on the EPO forecast in the long range. The parallel brings it back closer to positive (GFS drills it farther negative).

 

Now given the propensity for the GFS to always be cold in the extended, maybe they indeed fixed a flaw with the upgrade?

You would like to think that they  have made some strides with the model.

What is the best site to use as a historical source for monthly climo data?

[scoob40]

You would like to think that they  have made some strides with the model.

What is the best site to use as a historical source for monthly climo data?

http://www.wunderground.com/history/

[eduggs]

If you're looking for a 48 hour dump from a benchmark storm, this probably isn't your pattern. But there is no reason the current forecast (which is going pretty much as stated at this point) can't produce several moderate events in the coming first part of 2015.

Personally I think the term "pattern" is poorly understood and generally misleading.  I posted my detailed thinking on this topic yesterday and I don't want to rehash and muck up another thread.

 

With cold around and hopefully eventually some stronger baroclinicity, moderate events are definitely possible.  But I also think almost everything is still on the table. 

[OceanStWx]

You would like to think that they  have made some strides with the model.

What is the best site to use as a historical source for monthly climo data?

 

Are we talking all climate sites, or just SNE in general?