.......

[bluewave]

........

[Drz1111]

This is real bad science, and an example of why you need to understand how models work to apply them.

To do this socratically: are the long range models you're looking at a coupled air-sea model? And if not, consider the implications.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This is real bad science, and an example of why you need to understand how models work to apply them.

To do this socratically: are the long range models you're looking at a coupled air-sea model? And if not, consider the implications.

He is also applying a historical data set. It's not bad science as it has real world implications.

I would tend to think the warmer waters and resultant larger temperature gradient would aid storm development.

That would be great news for mountains especially in New England. Along the coast it's just means more moisture loaded rain storms.

[easternsnowman]

Inland locations will do well but since nyc temps are borderline anything more than 2 degrees above normal will be a problem.

[Allsnow]

I disagree with a above avg jaunary...most of the ens data have the splitting of the pv in the medium range now...also not.breaking down.the epo ridge...at the very least Canada will be cold...keeping the below.normal temps near by

[JBG]

This is real bad science, and an example of why you need to understand how models work to apply them.

To do this socratically: are the long range models you're looking at a coupled air-sea model? And if not, consider the implications.

He is also applying a historical data set. It's not bad science as it has real world implications.

I would tend to think the warmer waters and resultant larger temperature gradient would aid storm development.

That would be great news for mountains especially in New England. Along the coast it's just means more moisture loaded rain storms.

There's nothing wrong with using analogs as a method of long-range forecasting. It works as well as any, which means not very well.

[SnoSki14]

He just stated what past analogs showed and similarities to them. Also just mentioned a possibility of above normal didn't say it would happen because of a small sample size.

[Drz1111]

No, he's doing something different, which is the kind of "forecasting" that people who do who don't know how a weather model works. Also, what he's doing has zero scientific support - it's not quite analog forecasting.

[Sn0waddict]

No, he's doing something different, which is the kind of "forecasting" that people who do who don't know how a weather model works. Also, what he's doing has zero scientific support - it's not quite analog forecasting.

I'm pretty sure bluewave knows how to use a weather model.

[rgwp96]

No, he's doing something different, which is the kind of "forecasting" that people who do who don't know how a weather model works. Also, what he's doing has zero scientific support - it's not quite analog forecasting.

why is his call worse than the cold outlooks? nobody knows anything is what it comes down to it, as this past december just showed us

[JBG]

why is his call worse than the cold outlooks?  nobody knows anything is what it comes down to it as this past december just showed us

Exactly. I'm not a pro-met but I came pretty close in guessing that NYC's first 1"+ snowfall would be around January 15, 2015. I missed because of a few heavy flurries on December 12. I'm still sticking to my forecast of a nearly snowless winter similar to 1972-3 based not on analogs (we don't have a strong Niño or other ENSO state) and the PDO is more positive than it got during that winter), but on how closely sensible weather has tracked that winter. November was bitter with snow threats, and December warm and drizzly. Ironically that December had a near-miss for snow on December 15. KNYC got only a trace but KHPN had, I believe, 3" or so. And much of New England got blasted.

[RU848789]

As much as I love cold and snow, I'm almost hoping we get a warm, non-snowy winter, just so all the people touting the Siberian/Eurasian October snowfall connection to NE US winters will be wrong.  Mostly because non-deterministic, retrospective, analog-based "forecasting" to me is somewhat of a copout resulting from the current state of deterministic forecasting, in which our deterministic models, working with lousy initial data sets, globally, combined with the chaotic nature of weather systems, are simply unable to forecast accurately beyond maybe 8-10 days.  And even with "perfect" initial conditions, globally, I imagine the errors and uncertainties inherent in our models, including our incomplete physical understanding of weather phenomena, will likely cap long-term deterministic forecast accuracy at somewhere less than 15 days, although that's just a semi-educated guess. 

[JBG]

As much as I love cold and snow, I'm almost hoping we get a warm, non-snowy winter, just so all the people touting the Siberian/Eurasian October snowfall connection to NE US winters will be wrong.  Mostly because non-deterministic, retrospective, analog-based "forecasting" to me is somewhat of a copout resulting from the current state of deterministic forecasting, in which our deterministic models, working with lousy initial data sets, globally, combined with the chaotic nature of weather systems, are simply unable to forecast accurately beyond maybe 8-10 days.  And even with "perfect" initial conditions, globally, I imagine the errors and uncertainties inherent in our models, including our incomplete physical understanding of weather phenomena, will likely cap long-term deterministic forecast accuracy at somewhere less than 15 days, although that's just a semi-educated guess.

Aren't there some situations that lend themselves to long-term forecasts, such as a first year, moderate to strong La Niña almost always seem to produce a hot, dry northeastern summer. Think 1988, 1995, 1999 (technically second year but following super Niño) and 2010?

[famartin]

why is his call worse than the cold outlooks? nobody knows anything is what it comes down to it, as this past december just showed us

 

Well, obviously its because his forecast is for warm, which is not allowed in a long range winter forecast on a forum full of snow weenies

 

Seriously, bluewave may not be a pro met, but his comments are generally based in reason and evidence.  Just because it bucks the trend of cold/snow forecasts doesn't make it wrong.  I'm not saying he'll be right, but I am saying that he isn't a moron.

[jm1220]

I'll be in the Austin, Texas area starting on Jan 19th for a new job (sorry guys, I'm shipping out), so this will all be irrelevant for me, but I think the warm water temps argument gets kind of tired after New Year's. Hopefully a decent -EPO can get started and preferably a -NAO, and the rest can hopefully take care of itself. Ninos will get lots of storms to hit the East, hopefully one or two can come with cold air to make it memorable.

[jm1220]

Well, obviously its because his forecast is for warm, which is not allowed in a long range winter forecast on a forum full of snow weenies

 

Seriously, bluewave may not be a pro met, but his comments are generally based in reason and evidence.  Just because it bucks the trend of cold/snow forecasts doesn't make it wrong.  I'm not saying he'll be right, but I am saying that he isn't a moron.

Absolutely.

[PB GFI]

While there was a large range in the January temperature departures in the analog years, all the following

Januaries did average above normal in NYC. I really have now idea how much of an above normal signal

it portends for this January. But there was ridging near the East Coast in every one of those years.

The sample size is small since this magnitude of SST warmth is a new pattern for the 2000's.

Interactions with the other teleconnection indices determined the final departure. It's still too early

to know what all the teleconnections will look like so trying to guess how much the above normal

temperature potential is difficult at this time.

 

SSTCOMP.png

 

500.png

Jan 2014 - The EPO overrode that on the EC .  The ridge can be your friend sometimes .  The Pacific is the bully . I like the correlation at 500 I see it , that`s good work  but if we can keep the EPO neg  ( which the JMA weeklies don`t but the Euro weeklies do )  then we could be ok at 2M.  Big IF . Can`t see past 15 days .

[PB GFI]

The -EPO and the weakly negative AO worked together to keep it the smallest January warm departure of the set.

But NYC still averaged +2.5 in January 2013 with the ridge setting up near the East Coast.

 

J13.png

Should have said Jan 2014 - I corrected it after u replied .  The SE ridge was there last year and we did well Jan 2013 actually blew .

[easternsnowman]

It seems like the pacific overrules the atlantic so it is correct as long as everything is good on that side nyc will be ok, otherwise if you want snow move north or west of nyc.

[EasternLI]

Now I could be totally wrong with these thoughts, but here is why I'm not really buying into the sst idea. I think there has to be something else at work here. Those analog years mentioned were years with a +TNH pattern in Jan.

 

 

Now, here is what the +TNH pattern looks like, similar to what ensembles are advertising moving forward into Jan.

 

 

So I decided to look at the sst correlation to a TNH pattern and this is what that looks like

 

 

That is a -PDO in the Pacific, meanwhile we currently have a +PDO(opposite). Therefore, it doesn't make much sense to me that the Atlantic contribution would be so straightforward. I apologize if I have something mixed up here, but that is what I'm seeing

[Brian5671]

If the warm water in the Pacific correlates to a ridge (and a -EPO) the warm water just off the east coast certain argues for a ridge???

[PB GFI]

If the warm water in the Pacific correlates to a ridge (and a -EPO) the warm water just off the east coast certain argues for a ridge???

Yes but the neg EPO argues for the vortex in Hudson bay .

so there's a trough through the lakes

Low level dense air sinks to the base of the trough and that's how you set up a gradient pattern

Where that actual baroclinic zone sets up is anyone's guess.

So the argument that either side had merit

A gradient pattern worked on 94 and in 14 but it is possible that the set up could be up by the Mass Tpke

Calling for anything over powering in either direction doesn't make sense

[easternsnowman]

Yes but the neg EPO argues for the vortex in Hudson bay .

so there's a trough through the lakes

Low level dense air sinks to the base of the trough and that's how you set up a gradient pattern

Where that actual baroclinic zone sets up is anyone's guess.

So the argument that either side had merit

A gradient pattern worked on 94 and in 14 but it is possible that the set up could be up by the Mass Tpke

Calling for anything over powering in either direction doesn't make sense

I would tend to agree each indice has it's own effect.

[Brian5671]

Yes but the neg EPO argues for the vortex in Hudson bay .

so there's a trough through the lakes

Low level dense air sinks to the base of the trough and that's how you set up a gradient pattern

Where that actual baroclinic zone sets up is anyone's guess.

So the argument that either side had merit

A gradient pattern worked on 94 and in 14 but it is possible that the set up could be up by the Mass Tpke

Calling for anything over powering in either direction doesn't make sense

Agree, but there's certainly some compelling reasons out there (this being one of them) for warmth after our 7 day cooldown....

[EasternLI]

The near record warmth on the Atlantic side this December is occurring with a strong +PDO  pattern in place.

But the warmth this year is more of a function of the +AO/+NAO low in the NATL and ridging underneath.

That's why there is overlap with the +AO SST pattern. But these SST's are warmer than you

would just experience with that alone. That's why overlaps are so important.

 

 

Yes, I see what you are saying here and it makes perfect sense, thanks for the response. It's interesting to me since there seems to be a conflicting signal between the Atlantic and Pacific wrt the AO

 

[EasternLI]

We often get overlapping signals that produce SST patterns that deviate from just using a single straight index.

Ridging tends to persist over areas of very warm SST's.That's what it looks like the long range models are

picking up on. But it's still uncertain exactly long a specific pattern continues before changing. That's what makes

long range forecasting such a challenge. But if the ridge holds near the East Coast close to the unusually

warm SST's, then NYC could finish at some level above 32.6 degrees for the January average temperature.

 

Well said, I can totally see where you're coming from with your thoughts