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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Is the idea of a SSW, itself, a result of Cohen's own research? Or was that feature discovered by others?

NO Baldwin and others have shown the SSW events can lead to a negative AO.  There is even research as to when they might occur based on the solar cycle and QBO.  They also tend to occur more often in el nino years.  The trouble with using the SSW events is they are very tough to forecast and then not all of them lead to downwelling.  Plus you can get a negative Ao without a SSW. 

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Next weel's event problem is the high positioning is not great, it also is a stale high by then.  To top it off, there is now a bit of a primary type low near the Lakes, so even if we were able to get overrunning from the wave ejecting from the SRN Plains the primary likely over torches things.

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Why all the SSW hate? The effects of these phenomenon are well researched and very significant in the long run, when antecedent conditions are favorable. It was the major SSW in January of 2007 that turned the tide on that winter. Same goes for the event in January 2013.

Posting from a plane @ 35kft, so hopefully this post goes through properly.

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Why all the SSW hate? The effects of these phenomenon are well researched and very significant in the long run, when antecedent conditions are favorable.

It was the major SSW in January of 2007 that turned the tide on that winter. Same goes for the event in January 2013.

Posting from a plane @ 35kft, so hopefully this post goes through properly.

Not sure I saw any SSW hate?

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Why all the SSW hate? The effects of these phenomenon are well researched and very significant in the long run, when antecedent conditions are favorable. It was the major SSW in January of 2007 that turned the tide on that winter. Same goes for the event in January 2013.

Posting from a plane @ 35kft, so hopefully this post goes through properly.

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NO Baldwin and others have shown the SSW events can lead to a negative AO.  There is even research as to when they might occur based on the solar cycle and QBO.  They also tend to occur more often in el nino years.  The trouble with using the SSW events is they are very tough to forecast and then not all of them lead to downwelling.  Plus you can get a negative Ao without a SSW. 

 

Wes,

 Thanks very much!

 

1) I know they are tough to predict but one very strong one is apparently suddenly on our doorstep per this IF it verifies fairly closely:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-882-0-44670900-1419776040.gif

 

  Cohen had last thought it would have to wait til at least mid or late Jan after earlier thinking it would be about now. So, based on this prog, even he would be about to get a surprise. I'd think he would have a special update soon just based on this prog. Then again, Cohen's criteria for a SSW may very well be quite different.

 Regardless of one's criteria, this is showing a 37 C warming at 5 mb covering 90-60N over just five days (see where progged line goes from pink line in bottom graph..it goes from ~-23 to ~+14), which is near the highest rise I've ever seen of ~40 C.

 

2) I realize that their effects on the troposphere are hard to predict. Regardless, just having one would seemingly make things more interesting due to added uncertainty related to it.

 

3) I realize that you can even get a very strong -AO without a SSW. I found that ~50% of sub -2 AO months since 1979 had no associated SSW.

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Remember how very negative the AO was predicted to be?

The ssw is another method to speculate on what is going to happen 3 weeks from now, it has no valid use for in situ.

People delve into new tools all the time, we had something introduced this year about an October value, ONI I think

I believe that anyone right now who is continting the down the road talk and now talking about a change by end of January is whistling in the dark.

I dearly hope KA will be wrong in his mild call, he was just about the only one calling for mild, but if he nails it agains especially against the near unanimous cold calls, then it is jsut astounding that this man has come up with an assessment and prediction method that utterly blows away all the alphabet soup of models, indexes, etc.

I am unsure but I do not think I have ever seen a model programmer disucss here how, what and why of their methods. I stongly believe that this year is a combination of things Wes has discussed plus I think they took a model system that had performed well since 2009-10, fined tuned it too much and we are getting the results of looking through a microscope when binoculars were really the needed tool.

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There are literally thousands of variables that can be correlated with dozens of indices in order to "predict" weather in the sub seasonal time frame.  By pure chance several of them will produce spurious correlations.  I'm pretty sure we all know that here, but we want to believe … and they are interesting when nothing else is going on. 

 

Storms like a week from Monday's rain to snow scenario may be our best chance in this pattern. With enough of these 5% chances we'll get our first inch! At least its not 10 days out. 

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Tenman, his mild call was for Feb (+4) not Jan which he progged as average right? Either way, so far his outlook is going his way vs the majority cold calls.

"I dearly hope KA will be wrong in his mild call, he was just about the only one calling for mild, but if he nails it agains especially against the near unanimous cold calls, then it is jsut astounding that this man has come up with an assessment and prediction method that utterly blows away all the alphabet soup of models, indexes, etc."

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Remember how very negative the AO was predicted to be?

The ssw is another method to speculate on what is going to happen 3 weeks from now, it has no valid use for in situ.

People delve into new tools all the time, we had something introduced this year about an October value, ONI I think

I believe that anyone right now who is continting the down the road talk and now talking about a change by end of January is whistling in the dark.

I dearly hope KA will be wrong in his mild call, he was just about the only one calling for mild, but if he nails it agains especially against the near unanimous cold calls, then it is jsut astounding that this man has come up with an assessment and prediction method that utterly blows away all the alphabet soup of models, indexes, etc.

I am unsure but I do not think I have ever seen a model programmer disucss here how, what and why of their methods. I stongly believe that this year is a combination of things Wes has discussed plus I think they took a model system that had performed well since 2009-10, fined tuned it too much and we are getting the results of looking through a microscope when binoculars were really the needed tool.

 

He's been pretty mediocre the last bunch of winters other than 2012-13 in which he did really well....I think once he went from legend to us seeing his actual numbers, we realized he was human just like the rest of us....I also don't think him being kind of hesitant to expose his outlooks to criticism has helped him.  So nothing astounding.  But he has been doing this a long time and has had some great calls and some bad ones.  If he does well this winter in the face of mostly cold outlooks, he will deserve a lot of credit and I will be the 1st to give it to him.  This astounding/uncanny stuff is a bit of hyperbole.  I've said this over the years, but I don't think you blowing him up has helped his reputation.  Based on the description of how magical this guy was, I am pretty unimpressed with what he has put out there over the last 10-15 winters.  These outlooks aren't easy.  I don't think I am any better than KA.  Hopefully he is wrong, but if he does well, this will be a big coup.  For what it's worth, I gave a talk to DC-AMS at Washington Post, and I gave a shout-out to KA for doing these outlooks for so long and being the inspiration of sorts for me doing them in a similar manner.  He deserves a lot of kudos for being somewhat of a pioneer when it comes to local winter outlooks with specific numbers.

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Which other winters have had the AO hit +3 in early January, and how have they turned out on average?

 

Since that's a serious possibility, it might be worth a look.

 

1952

1957

1973

1975

1976

1983

1984

1989

1992

1993

2000

2002

2005

2006

2007

2009

 

Some years recovered, others didn't

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