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January Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

My target date for whether, or not, we transition into a cold and snow regime is still Jan 5. Sine last update 5 days ago nothing is worse but it's also not really better. As much as I respect Larry C. I think he is too entrenched in the "10 days away" that has dominated discussion since first of December. Remember, first it was 12/15, then Christmas time, then New Years, now Jan 5th-10th. We have chased these mirages before. Low pressures in prime time Jan still seem to want to cut to our west even with a 1040 high over Maine and a 1030 in Indiana. That is disheartening. Will wait a little longer and avoid the day to day up and down but as far as anything reallly cold, snowy, and solid-I do not see it at this minute.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

Yea, there's no reason to panic. Euro ens and gefs look fine. The next 2 weeks are far from a writeoff look.

Euro splits the strat vortex d5 @ 10/30/50hpa and keeps it split. Is this meaningful? I have no skill on this subject. I assume it isn't because there's no talk about it.

The literature suggests an event like this (upwelling split) favors a -AO response for a period of time. This would probably occur in early-mid January.

That doesn't mean everything else will cooperate, though. We're moving into a period of W-PAC tropical forcing which will try to pump a SE-Ridge, so the signal is conflicting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The literature suggests an event like this (upwelling split) favors a -AO response for a period of time. This would probably occur in early-mid January.

That doesn't mean everything else will cooperate, though. We're moving into a period of W-PAC tropical forcing which will try to pump a SE-Ridge, so the signal is conflicting.

The problem is that the PV comes right back again. It's been "bend don't break" with that. It does briefly split, but it comes right back. It's good that it takes a beating , but a -NAO isn't happening anytime soon.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

The problem is that the PV comes right back again. It's been "bend don't break" with that. It does briefly split, but it comes right back. It's good that it takes a beating , but a -NAO isn't happening anytime soon.

Agreed on the NAO, but I don't think the PV needs to be obliterated to get a -NAM overall? Generally, what I've read suggests that an elongated, unstable vortex (baroclinic mode) tends to reduce internal wave refraction and promote a -NAM. We'll have an unstable vortex for awhile, regardless of whether we see a true SSW.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

does this count as anything close to a SSW?

link didn't work so this is what I was referring to

 

 I just saw this chart referred to by Mitch (reattached below) for the first time and am quite surprised it hasn't generated more discussion! In my book, this (assuming verification) would definitely count as a strong SSW. This shows an absolute 90-60N warming of ~37C (see bottom chart; ~40C is about as warm as has occurred) and a warming anomalywise of ~30C at 5 mb over just five days from 12/26 to the 12/31 peak. Per my eyeballs, this 37C absolute warming could very well be a top three strength warming since 1979. That 30C anomaly warming would be at least a top 12 strength SSW based on anomalies (28C+ anomaly warming over a week or so elapsed period) since 1979 and the strongest such warming anomalywise since 1/22/09 (which had ~33C anomaly warming). The reason that it would do better absolutewise is that the sharpest warming of normals occurs between the last few days of Dec. and the first couple of days of Jan as per the attached chart. For all of my data, I use this source:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

 

 So, I'd love to see more discussion about this. There is no doubt in my mind that IF this forecast verifies that it would count as a SSW and one of the strongest ones (possibly top 3) based on absolute warming since at least 1979. Now, whether or not its effects on the pattern/PV/AO are sig. or not is a whole other Q. Based on the past, I'm not so sure of this as it seems to widely vary. Regardless, I have read that it can take 3+ weeks for its main effects to occur.

 

post-882-0-44670900-1419776040_thumb.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Watch at the following link as the attached anomaly (not absolutes) chart of today should warm very sharply over the next ~4 days in the upper right side probably centered on/near 2-5 hPa/mb) (assuming the forecast noted in my post just above this verifies closely):

 

Link to this anomaly chart that is updated daily:

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2014.gif

 

It is now at ~+9C for the warmest anomaly. IF it reaches the brown or gray colors (another ~19C+ of anomaly warming), it would qualify as a top 12 SSW since 1979 per my criterium (28C+ based on anomalies).

 

post-882-0-91424600-1419779694_thumb.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 In addition to Mitchnick, I see that Bob Chill and Metwannabe were both onto this yesterday and yet were largely ignored for whatever reason. So, kudos to those three! As I said, I had not even noticed it til this morning. I have to admit that I was just caught by surprise, myself. That's why I said nothing yesterday. I think this is a big deal in the SSW world.

 

Thoughts? Why is it so quiet?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Probably because most sane people don't give a crap about SSW

 

Ian,

 Why not? The search for one has been one of the most talked about items for several weeks by many people, mets included. Regardless of whether or not it would have sig. effects on the pattern (I think that is a valid point for debate), I would certainly think it would generate lots of discussion if it really is finally occurring since just its occurrence, alone, would be a sig. met event. I think some people are about to get caught flatfooted. This silence is bizarre.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

 In addition to Mitchnick, I see that Bob Chill and Metwannabe were both onto this yesterday and yet were largely ignored for whatever reason. So, kudos to those three! As I said, I had not even noticed it til this morning. I have to admit that I was just caught by surprise, myself. That's why I said nothing yesterday. I think this is a big deal in the SSW world.

 

Thoughts? Why is it so quiet?

For whatever reason, some folks in this forum believe SSW events and Judah Cohen's SAI stuff are way out there, and not a major piece of the puzzle to getting a -AO, or a good pattern in general. Maybe its not tangible enough, or too technical, or there is too much lag and people want instant results since we are well into winter and its been a suck-fest for the most part. IDK. I have made posts on SSW from time to time and there was never much interest in it.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

For whatever reason, some folks in this forum believe SSW events and Judah Cohen's SAI stuff are way out there, and not a major piece of the puzzle to getting a -AO, or a good pattern in general. Maybe its not tangible enough, or too technical, or there is too much lag and people want instant results since we are well into winter and its been a suck-fest for the most part. IDK. I have made posts on SSW from time to time and there was never much interest in it.

 

 What's really weird is that Judah Cohen, himself, had just recently said that any SSW would be delayed from his original timing thinking (around now) and likely would have to wait til something like mid Jan. or later!! Wtf?? Is even he getting caught flatfooted? Maybe Judah's silence is causing confusion?

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Ian,

 Why not? The search for one has been one of the most talked about items for several weeks by many people, mets included. Regardless of whether or not it would have sig. effects on the pattern (I think that is a valid point for debate), I would certainly think it would generate lots of discussion if it really is finally occurring since just its occurrence, alone, would be a sig. met event. I think some people are about to get caught flatfooted. This silence is bizarre.

Wx weenie jargon to the enth. If someone as into weather as me doesn't care the general guy on the street surely won't. Plus it's on the edge of knowns.. you mainly see research PhD types all into it.  Cohen's work is apparently also largely unproven given his recent results. Chicken v egg stuff maybe... tho not sure that's really the best analogy. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Wx weenie jargon to the enth. If someone as into weather as me doesn't care the general guy on the street surely won't. Plus it's on the edge of knowns.. you mainly see research PhD types all into it.  Cohen's work is apparently also largely unproven given his recent results. Chicken v egg stuff maybe... tho not sure that's really the best analogy. 

 

Is the idea of a SSW, itself, a result of Cohen's own research? Or was that feature discovered by others?

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

Wx weenie jargon to the enth. If someone as into weather as me doesn't care the general guy on the street surely won't. Plus it's on the edge of knowns.. you mainly see research PhD types all into it.  Cohen's work is apparently also largely unproven given his recent results. Chicken v egg stuff maybe... tho not sure that's really the best analogy. 

This.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Is the idea of a SSW, itself, a result of Cohen's own research? Or was that feature discovered by others?

Not sure. Have read stuff about him on CWG but not much else. SSW itself has been like a boogeyman for the last few winters at least. Always on the horizon always nebulously meaning something.
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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

some frozen precip at the begining. Thats a win this crummy winter

you know its bad when there is that strong/cold HP and it still gets blasted away.  I have to wonder if the blasting will be somewhat slower than advertised.  33F with rain vice 43F with rain I suppose.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

Not sure. Have read stuff about him on CWG but not much else. SSW itself has been like a boogeyman for the last few winters at least. Always on the horizon always nebulously meaning something.

The first I had ever heard about it was roughly around 8 years ago when JB credited Elliott Abrams with watching the 10MB and warming at the pole stuff. I don't believe he used the term SSW though. I don't ever remember anybody referencing it on the message boards until about 2009 or so but maybe I'm off on that. I don't remember any discussion of it on the early days of Eastern or Wright Weather going back to the early 2000's.

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