January Med/Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

Eh, we had plenty of blocky winters with no ssw required. Especially the month of Dec.

If we go into Feb and things remain so-so or worse, part of me is going to root for a crappy finish for the entire east. It would be the largest collective lr bust since I joined the forums. And it will help me not waste time in the fall thinking it matters irt winter.

on a different subject, the one thing that really has me thinking it's going to be a fail are the terrible surface temps vs. decent 850's even when there have been snow threats

that's the kind of cr@p we saw in 07/08, 11/12, and 12/13, so when it keeps happening, I'm thinking the writing is there

[Deck Pic]

on a different subject, the one thing that really has me thinking it's going to be a fail are the terrible surface temps vs. decent 850's even when there have been snow threats

that's the kind of cr@p we saw in 07/08, 11/12, and 12/13, so when it keeps happening, I'm thinking the writing is there

 

I don't think there is anything we can discern from what we have experienced so far other than what we have experienced so far has sucked.  It has no bearing on what happens down the line.  We could have a 12-18" storm on February 4th or it could be 65 and sunny.

[mitchnick]

I don't think there is anything we can discern from what we have experienced so far other than what we have experienced so far has sucked.  It has no bearing on what happens down the line.  We could have a 12-18" storm on February 4th or it could be 65 and sunny.

well, my point is, we've had a few winters in the recent past that have been persistent all season with the low level warmth and it seems to be showing up on the models this season

last year, I don't recall seeing it more than a time or two, and even then, the surface "almost" always ended up cooperating

 

look, it may be meaningless as you suggest, but those lousy winters I mention are far too recent in my weenie brain

[PrinceFrederickWx]

If this winter is a complete bust, what does it mean for Siberian snowfall analysis?

 

Its like I've said in the poems thread October Siberian snow,

is total nonsense that doesn't lead to a negative NAO.

[Bob Chill]

I don't think there is anything we can discern from what we have experienced so far other than what we have experienced so far has sucked. It has no bearing on what happens down the line. We could have a 12-18" storm on February 4th or it could be 65 and sunny.

Not sure I agree. If Dec had a tendency towards a -ao we could discern that a continuation is likely for Jan. We're going to finish + on the means.

There are only 3 winters in the last 65 years where a +ao in Dec/jan meaningfully flipped neg in Feb(51-52, 82-83, 06-07). There a couple more years like 07-08 and 90-91 that flipped but pretty weak overall.

Obviously Jan hasn't started yet but the early progs are pretty lame for blocking. If that continues for the first half with no end in sights then we're more likely than not in some trouble the rest of the season for an extended winter period taking shape.

ETA: I missed 04-05. That was a decent flip year after Dec-Jan.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looking at the gfs members, there's just so much uncertainty there that I don't think anybody should be completely disheartened. I still think Mon/Tues could still surprise.

Chin up guys and gals.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not sure I agree. If Dec had a tendency towards a -ao we could discern that a continuation is likely for Jan. We're going to finish + on the means.

There are only 3 winters in the last 65 years where a +ao in Dec/jan meaningfully flipped neg in Feb(51-52, 82-83, 06-07). There a couple more years like 07-08 and 90-91 that flipped but pretty weak overall.

Obviously Jan hasn't started yet but the early progs are pretty lame for blocking. If that continues for the first half with no end in sights then we're more likely than not in some trouble the rest of the season for an extended winter period taking shape.

06-07 has been showing up a lot on the CPC analogs

[SnowGoose69]

 

Its like I've said in the poems thread October Siberian snow,

is total nonsense that doesn't lead to a negative NAO.

 

 

It correlates more to AO than NAO...the AO has likely been mostly positive so far due to a combination of the strongly negative QBO and the solar resurgence...I've long felt the atmosphere reacts to solar activity in a relative manner in that despite the fact this resurgence does not even really compare to some in the past, the atmosphere "knows" to an extent its a peak relative to recent activity and thus behaves in the same manner it may have in 1999 or 1989.  The QBO may be a bigger factor in the NAO problems although the Atlantic SSTs are pretty bad too...I thought back in October the NATL SST pattern was okay but not spectacular for a -NAO as some others were saying...it was in a state that easily could be swung one way or the other.

[CAPE]

The realist in me says we are looking at mid month before we get any meaningful pattern change. There are at least hints of a -AO in 10 to 14 days in the ens guidance. Need the PNA/EPO ridge to drive the pattern...its our only shot at getting real cold anytime soon. In the near term the cold air will continue spill into the western and central US, and try to seep eastward against the SE ridge at times. We could time something minor, as has been generally advertised for next Tues in the guidance. Otherwise we will be putting up with more rain events and a well inland track with any stronger impulse that amplifies.

[EastCoast NPZ]

 

By the way. It has been exactly one month today since I have seen a snowflake. Weird December for sure.

 

I wonder if there's ever been a completely snowless Dec. here?  I can't recall one, but then my memory would not be stimulated by traces.  

[Deck Pic]

The realist in me says we are looking at mid month before we get any meaningful pattern change. There are at least hints of a -AO in 10 to 14 days in the ens guidance. Need the PNA/EPO ridge to drive the pattern...its our only shot at getting real cold anytime soon. In the near term the cold air will continue spill into the western and central US, and try to seep eastward against the SE ridge at times. We could time something minor, as has been generally advertised for next Tues in the guidance. Otherwise we will be putting up with more rain events and a well inland track with any stronger impulse that amplifies.

Makes sense. I haven't gotten a really decent event 1/1-1/15 since 1996. That period sucks almost every winter. I average 80% of my seasonal snow after 1/15 anyway.

[CAPE]

Makes sense. I haven't gotten a really decent event 1/1-1/15 since 1996. That period sucks almost every winter. I average 80% of my seasonal snow after 1/15 anyway.

Thats pretty remarkable. I dont have that good a memory on individual events without actually looking it up. I did get 7 inches in the Jan 2 event last year, but generally most of the good snow events(off the top of my head) have occurred in late Jan and Feb.

[Ian]

since this is a january thread you guys should go to the dec obs thread or start a thread

[yoda]

its a bit out there (Days 10-15), but 00z GFS brings in a few what appear to be some nice arctic shots... but once again its a cold, dry time period.  However, looks like a lot of zonal flow... i think

[87storms]

I had nearly 6" from that one, and another 4" several days later (12th?), followed by another minor event a couple days later. I'd have to go back to last years storm total thread for the specifics, but we had 3 measurable events by this point.

I agree with ers as far as dc proper is concerned. Yea we had cold going back to November but it wasn't until jan 21 before we started getting snowstorms in dc and close in.

[Deck Pic]

Not sure I agree. If Dec had a tendency towards a -ao we could discern that a continuation is likely for Jan. We're going to finish + on the means.

There are only 3 winters in the last 65 years where a +ao in Dec/jan meaningfully flipped neg in Feb(51-52, 82-83, 06-07). There a couple more years like 07-08 and 90-91 that flipped but pretty weak overall.

Obviously Jan hasn't started yet but the early progs are pretty lame for blocking. If that continues for the first half with no end in sights then we're more likely than not in some trouble the rest of the season for an extended winter period taking shape.

ETA: I missed 04-05. That was a decent flip year after Dec-Jan.

 

I'm not as concerned with the numerics if we can get a period(s) where we can score......I never expected a big winter, anyway.

[yoda]

Canadian semi-LR is very cold at the 850 level to start Jan... 1050 H is sitting up in Quebec... Looks like a winter threat Jan 4/5

[Bob Chill]

winter cancel uncancel. Euro destruction d9

[CAPE]

winter cancel uncancel. Euro destruction d9

Hour 216 looks interesting on the freebie site. Details?

[Bob Chill]

Hour 216 looks interesting on the freebie site. Details?

 

Looks like rain to heavy snow verbatim. Just enough high pressure/confluence to keep the vort underneath us. The snow map I posted in Ji's thread is overdone because of the well known flaw. 8-10" or so not that it matters. I think the most important thing is the euro is shifting away from the cutter idea. 12z was a good step east from 0z last night and now this. At this rate it's going to be a congrats nc slider. lol

[CAPE]

Looks like rain to heavy snow verbatim. Just enough high pressure/confluence to keep the vort underneath us. The snow map I posted in Ji's thread is overdone because of the well known flaw. 8-10" or so not that it matters. I think the most important thing is the euro is shifting away from the cutter idea. 12z was a good step east from 0z last night and now this. At this rate it's going to be a congrats nc slider. lol

Yeah I just saw the perty map lol. Thanks for the update. Eh who knows, it could trend that way, or it just might end up cutting west. I really have no feel for this pattern and how it may evolve...sort of like the models.

[Bob Chill]

Yeah I just saw the perty map lol. Thanks for the update. Eh who knows, it could trend that way, or it just might end up cutting west. I really have no feel for this pattern and how it may evolve...sort of like the models.

Nice trends with hp to our north. Hopefully the se ridge won't be as formidable in the med range as advertised. The epo is nuts. It's going to drive some big HP's into the conus. It's not a doom and gloom pattern. Just a difficult med-long lead with op runs. The broken record models suck posts will be rampant and annoying. We'll need some luck with timing but climo is decent for temps at least

[CAPE]

Nice trends with hp to our north. Hopefully the se ridge won't be as formidable in the med range as advertised. The epo is nuts. It's going to drive some big HP's into the conus. It's not a doom and gloom pattern. Just a difficult med-long lead with op runs. The broken record models suck posts will be rampant and annoying. We'll need some luck with timing but climo is decent for temps at least

Well said. I agree completely. It does make for some fun tracking with the short lead stuff, as long as one doesnt latch onto any model solution 6+ days out. I kinda like the idea of some minor, sneaky chances over the next week. Its likely the only way we will get snow until  things realign.. shift the ridge out west further east, knock down the SE ridge, and get the cold air dumping closer to our neck of the woods.

[usedtobe]

Nice trends with hp to our north. Hopefully the se ridge won't be as formidable in the med range as advertised. The epo is nuts. It's going to drive some big HP's into the conus. It's not a doom and gloom pattern. Just a difficult med-long lead with op runs. The broken record models suck posts will be rampant and annoying. We'll need some luck with timing but climo is decent for temps at least

 

Doesn't have much support from the euro ensemble mean so right now I'd guess that the euro is an outlier. 

[winterymix]

Doesn't have much support from the euro ensemble mean so right now I'd guess that the euro is an outlier. 

Wes, at least you aren't trying to make a living managing the winter weather desk at the Weather Channel.

[usedtobe]

Wes, at least you aren't trying to make a living managing the winter weather desk at the Weather Channel.

But they can talk about winter weather anywhere in the country and the pattern will yield snow somewhere because of the big ridge over Alaska and there is the slight chance that last night's euro is onto something despite the ridgy look to the ensemble mean.

[nj2va]

Allan Huffman on Twitter saying this may be more like last winter when cold on east coast arrives late in season. I wouldn't mind a backloaded winter that is active for a few weeks.

[CAPE]

Allan Huffman on Twitter saying this may be more like last winter when cold on east coast arrives late in season. I wouldn't mind a backloaded winter that is active for a few weeks.

 Cold arrived here pretty early last winter. The snow followed, beginning in early Jan for most. Was different in the SE..

[mdsnowlover]

Allan Huffman on Twitter saying this may be more like last winter when cold on east coast arrives late in season. I wouldn't mind a backloaded winter that is active for a few weeks.

that is what judah cohen is hinting at , 2-4 more weeks of seasonable temps, got to wonder if  euro breaks that ??

[nj2va]

Cold arrived here pretty early last winter. The snow followed, beginning in early Jan for most. Was different in the SE..

Yea true. While the arrival of the cold will be different here this year I think some of the calls of a better second half for snow may verify based on how we tend to backload in Nino winters (based on the stats I've seen others post here). LR isn't my thing and I think it's proven useless this winter anyways so who knows.