Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 As modeled, looks like a HECS. But yeah, it's over a week out right now so a bit early. If it shows that within 5 days, and keeps showing it, well then, that would hold more weight!Probably moving too fast. Need two widespread 1" per 6 hr panels back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 As modeled, looks like a HECS. But yeah, it's over a week out right now so a bit early. If it shows that within 5 days, and keeps showing it, well then, that would hold more weight! 1.4" qpf at BWI so yeah, that's a HECS in my book this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Marginal column is mostly a byproduct of the lakes low that may or may not exist in a week. Who knows where we sit in a week. I would enjoy my tainted 12+" like a child on Christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GEFS had a bunch of different evolutions beyond this frame but it's about as good an indicator of a big storm in the gulf as you can get at this lead. Yep...that's a lot of moisture brewing there over the Gulf on most every member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 although marginal at one of the 6 hour intervals, the Euro is all snow for end of run event at BWI Looks like hr228 is rain? Then complete fatty rippage at hr234, with some light accum. at hr240. 228 is 0C at 850, so I guess it could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 At DCA- Hr 222 850's- -4 C 228- 0 234- -1 240- -3 Many thanks! So, getting marginal around 228 but otherwise a good look for now. From what Mitch mentioned, looks similar up through BWI as well. At this point, it's parsing details but good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like hr228 is rain? Then complete fatty rippage at hr234, with some light accum. at hr240. 228 is 0C at 850, so I guess it could go either way. Somebody's going to tell us very soon they we shouldn't worry about temps right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course. Wow i have never seen you this ballsy 9 1/2 days out. You must really want that 20" prediction to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course. If this actually happens and we get a foot or more with a mix-y period thrown in there, I don't think too many around here will be complaining. Would be better than the Feb. storm last year from the looks of it, plus, looks cold afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Wow i have never seen you this ballsy 9 1/2 days out. You must really want that 20" prediction to come true. Gotta verify.. Not sure it's too ballsy. There is pretty solid agreement for several runs and among the ensembles for the southern low idea. It actually starts the process by Wed/Thur next week. That part is more or less within a range where it's at least believable though it could poof in the next few runs I guess. A strong low offshore could still totally miss us too. Wes noted the positives and negatives around then to some degree above. It's still perhaps a bit of a thread the needle. This run in particular just felt like we're onto something different overall.. clipper, big snow, clipper.. climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course. As modeled S and E of 95 are pretty close to a sloppy mix at the height of the storm. But like it has been pointed out and will be numerous times again, it's still years away, so I will shut up with details and just watch the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 although marginal at one of the 6 hour intervals, the Euro is all snow for end of run event at BWI Most of the big ones bring the mix up to or even over DCA, but I won't sweat that too much. The Euro is probably overamped anyway, but it took a huge jump toward the GFS this run. A compromise of GFS Op and the Euro Op is a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This run in particular just felt like we're onto something different overall.. clipper, big snow, clipper.. climo. The clipper might be the biggest event of the 2. Or the only event. haha So far the gfs/gefs/euro have taken the cutter idea away so that's good. I'd rather a whiff south vs rain. Hopefully the euro ens have a less miller b'ish mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 No model has been accurate even 5 days out this winter, let alone 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The clipper might be the biggest event of the 2. Or the only event. haha So far the gfs/gefs/euro have taken the cutter idea away so that's good. I'd rather a whiff south vs rain. Hopefully the euro ens have a less miller b'ish mean track. Yeah, if it's going to be a miss, rather just be cold and dry (or a few flakes) and preserve whatever we might have gotten from a clipper, I suppose. Had enough of 35 and rain for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not sure I care about the forecasts of any one storm. I do like the pattern if the mean either the GEFS or Euro5 day ens mean patterns are in the ball park. Give me the big ridge and I'm happy, gvie me any hint of a negative AO and I'm really happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 fantasy storms at 10 days feels like an eternity. the euro gave me. 80 qpf on sunday and today only .07 so its still messing around with storms that are only a few days away. I am excited but we need to get this under 132 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm waiting on PDIIIs take on the runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A lot of the GFS members focus on the clipper that is diving down in the 240-288 hr range. If the OP EURO went beyond 240 hours, it would probably show this as well since it has a really potent wave dropping southeastward at 240 hours. I understand the naysayers with their "It is 8-10 days away, it will change tonight", but this is one of the few times this season, if at all, that we have a fantasy storm showing up on the GFS & EURO in which the pattern also supports it. Happy to at least have something on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 whoa...December PDO was +2.51...strongest on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Check out this epic cold on the GFS ensembles; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A lot of the GFS members focus on the clipper that is diving down in the 240-288 hr range. If the OP EURO went beyond 240 hours, it would probably show this as well since it has a really potent wave dropping southeastward at 240 hours. I understand the naysayers with their "It is 8-10 days away, it will change tonight", but this is one of the few times this season, if at all, that we have a fantasy storm showing up on the GFS & EURO in which the pattern also supports it. Happy to at least have something on the map. Looks like the first chance at accumulating snow is with the clipper on the 21st. That gives everyone 11 days left in January to see something measurable. I would be very surprised if it didn't snow at lest once in that period. If the ensembles hold course there will also be an intense shot of arctic cold somewhere in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, euro ensembles say there's plenty of chance for the big storm to be a cutter or miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The Jan 1996 HECS had a nice clipper follow right behind it too. That's probably the end of the similarities, except that it's January. But, hey, maybe it's a sign. Wonder what the analogs are showing for this time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, euro ensembles say there's plenty of chance for the big storm to be a cutter or miller B.I just reported this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, euro ensembles say there's plenty of chance for the big storm to be a cutter or miller B. When HM brought up 04/05 this morning I automatically went to Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, euro ensembles say there's plenty of chance for the big storm to be a cutter or miller B. That's what last night's said too. even if we get a cutter, we'll have another probably with a clipper bringing in an arctic shot and then probably another as the arctic air exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I just reported this post. Member's e15 and e47 are apocalyptic so I'll just hug those and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, euro ensembles say there's plenty of chance for the big storm to be a cutter or miller B. Yuck no miller As? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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