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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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As modeled, looks like a HECS. But yeah, it's over a week out right now so a bit early. If it shows that within 5 days, and keeps showing it, well then, that would hold more weight!

Probably moving too fast. Need two widespread 1" per 6 hr panels back to back. ;)
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I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course.

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I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course.

Wow i have never seen you this ballsy 9 1/2 days out. You must really want that 20" prediction to come true.

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I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course.

 

If this actually happens and we get a foot or more with a mix-y period thrown in there, I don't think too many around here will be complaining.  Would be better than the Feb. storm last year from the looks of it, plus, looks cold afterward.

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Wow i have never seen you this ballsy 9 1/2 days out. You must really want that 20" prediction to come true.

Gotta verify.. ;)

 

Not sure it's too ballsy. There is pretty solid agreement for several runs and among the ensembles for the southern low idea. It actually starts the process by Wed/Thur next week. That part is more or less within a range where it's at least believable though it could poof in the next few runs I guess. A strong low offshore could still totally miss us too. Wes noted the positives and negatives around then to some degree above. It's still perhaps a bit of a thread the needle. This run in particular just felt like we're onto something different overall.. clipper, big snow, clipper.. climo. :P

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I think a gulf low is pretty likely.. A strong storm offshore might be too given the looks we've seen. Track around here.. Who knows. Storm like this would probably mix near 95 of course.

As modeled S and E of 95 are pretty close to a sloppy mix at the height of the storm. But like it has been pointed out and will be numerous times again, it's still years away, so I will shut up with details and just watch the progression.

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although marginal at one of the 6 hour intervals, the Euro is all snow for end of run event at BWI

Most of the big ones bring the mix up to or even over DCA, but I won't sweat that too much.  The Euro is probably overamped anyway, but it took a huge jump toward the GFS this run.  A compromise of GFS Op and the Euro Op is a pretty good storm.

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 This run in particular just felt like we're onto something different overall.. clipper, big snow, clipper.. climo. :P

 

The clipper might be the biggest event of the 2. Or the only event. haha

 

So far the gfs/gefs/euro have taken the cutter idea away so that's good. I'd rather a whiff south vs rain. Hopefully the euro ens have a less miller b'ish mean track. 

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The clipper might be the biggest event of the 2. Or the only event. haha

 

So far the gfs/gefs/euro have taken the cutter idea away so that's good. I'd rather a whiff south vs rain. Hopefully the euro ens have a less miller b'ish mean track. 

 

Yeah, if it's going to be a miss, rather just be cold and dry (or a few flakes) and preserve whatever we might have gotten from a clipper, I suppose.  Had enough of 35 and rain for awhile.

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A lot of the GFS members focus on the clipper that is diving down in the 240-288 hr range. If the OP EURO went beyond 240 hours, it would probably show this as well since it has a really potent wave dropping southeastward at 240 hours.

 

I understand the naysayers with their "It is 8-10 days away, it will change tonight", but this is one of the few times this season, if at all, that we have a fantasy storm showing up on the GFS & EURO in which the pattern also supports it.  

 

Happy to at least have something on the map. 

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A lot of the GFS members focus on the clipper that is diving down in the 240-288 hr range. If the OP EURO went beyond 240 hours, it would probably show this as well since it has a really potent wave dropping southeastward at 240 hours.

 

I understand the naysayers with their "It is 8-10 days away, it will change tonight", but this is one of the few times this season, if at all, that we have a fantasy storm showing up on the GFS & EURO in which the pattern also supports it.  

 

Happy to at least have something on the map. 

 

Looks like the first chance at accumulating snow is with the clipper on the 21st. That gives everyone 11 days left in January to see something measurable. I would be very surprised if it didn't snow at lest once in that period. If the ensembles hold course there will also be an intense shot of arctic cold somewhere in there as well.

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