Scraff Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's not a great big storm pattern. It's a timing pattern. The euro last night dug the northern stream right down the heart of the country and even with a 50/50 feature, ridging got pumped up in the east. It was too amped up for us to have a chance. It's one of those setups where relatively small changes in strength and placement of the important features cause large changes in sensible wx. Bob--do you foresee evidence that the ever elusive "big storm pattern" can come to fruition this winter...at all? Is it the non -NAO that kills us? Are we just destined to spin our wheels in the "timing pattern" until spring? I know we can all score no matter what, but it would easier if I didn't have to pray so much. Well I see HM just answered that. Back to praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb. I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived. The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical. Thanks Bob. I thought we would get a thaw but I didn't think it would be this brief! The Jan 20-25 period I wasn't sure on but I knew the normal factors I look at were suggesting another potential dip in the NAO/AO then. These same factors also suggested it back in late Dec and it ended up being just a small dip. This upcoming round has a better strat situation and better wave lengths for a more appreciable NAO dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Bob--do you foresee evidence that the ever elusive "big storm pattern" can come to fruition this winter...at all? Is it the non -NAO that kills us? Are we just destined to spin our wheels in the "timing pattern" until spring? I know we can all score no matter what, but it would easier if I didn't have to pray so much. Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce? I've learned the hard way over the years that there are certain winters where you can get cute and not get cute. This is not the type of winter where I'll try to be all bad ass and call for a storm a month out (unless of course I see a bigger picture change). This is the kind of winter where the larger players DO work out but the details don't do what typically happens within that frame. Many of the best analog years had several near-misses, close-calls etc. I'm not trying to be a downer today; we've seen a lot worse! In fact, I'm pretty sure we'll all get some snow before the month is over. And you have to be a fool to not at least acknowledge the potential ahead! But, I'm just trying to keep it real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The one theme that this winter has that showed up on the higher solar analogs is a high-freq flow. The issue becomes getting proper amplification/interaction. This is why many of the better analogs seemed to have good patterns, per monthly numbers/composites, but lacked on the snow (e.g. 58/59, 03/04, 79/80 for some of you). Already, the modeling has become littered with waves next week and has dismantled the NAO rex attempt to more of a thumb/omega block. There's been also a nice similarity with 04/05, 87/88 too. Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce? Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This is last night's euro for the same period I posted the gfs. It digs for Texas oil with the northern stream and kills off any confluence we have from the 50/50. Somewhere between this euro look and today's gfs is a big storm for us. Euro likes amping things up too much at this range so it's hardly a surprise. But doesn't mean it's wrong. euroh5vort.JPG I'd rather see that northern stream dig to the florida keys if we are going with a triple phase. I think it's pretty clearly the euro is overdoing the phase, and with the -AO a miss to the south is probably more likely than a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Thanks Bob. I thought we would get a thaw but I didn't think it would be this brief! The Jan 20-25 period I wasn't sure on but I knew the normal factors I look at were suggesting another potential dip in the NAO/AO then. These same factors also suggested it back in late Dec and it ended up being just a small dip. This upcoming round has a better strat situation and better wave lengths for a more appreciable NAO dip. I know this is a very tough question to answer...but...do you think we are in the process of building more stable higher heights where it counts or will we be stuck relying on the -epo to deliver chances? Seems like the -epo ridge is the only stable feature when I run the various ensemble loops. Seems the -nao look may end up being pretty transient. ETA: you answered my question above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Until we get some stable help with at least a -AO, no I don't see an "easy" pattern in our future. Even the shift for next week is better but far from optimal. The big question is are we in the building process of a blockier look for Feb or do we revert back to the blue hole over greenland/iceland? Kinda has the feel that we revert but that's a total WAG. Then comes what HM just said...even if we get the right look does it actually produce? I hear both you and HM loud and clear. We just need to score something decent soon. That damn sun angle excuse is right around the corner...well at least a few blocks away...but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter. Well, you folks down there in the SE have a different story. I'm already on the record, with Eric W., on Twitter suggestint a snowy winter was more probable for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know this is a very tough question to answer...but...do you think we are in the process of building more stable higher heights where it counts or will we be stuck relying on the -epo to deliver chances? Seems like the -epo ridge is the only stable feature when I run the various ensemble loops. Seems the -nao look may end up being pretty transient. ETA: you answered my question above. The stratosphere trends yesterday were great. I want to see if the EPS continue with the 00z idea (not as great) or revert back to yesterday's 12z. They set up a classic baroclinic structure, displaced to Siberia with a high tropopause over Greenland/Canada. It's a great look for the NAO potential and possible further PV weakening. However, last night they sort of got that barotropic look back, despite the displacement! Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The stratosphere trends yesterday were great. I want to see if the EPS continue with the 00z idea (not as great) or revert back to yesterday's 12z. They set up a classic baroclinic structure, displaced to Siberia with a high tropopause over Greenland/Canada. It's a great look for the NAO potential and possible further PV weakening. However, last night they sort of got that barotropic look back, despite the displacement! Meh... yea, I saw that too. I'm getting pretty good as basic interpretation. Pretty concentric circles are not nearly as sexy as elongated ovals or multiple circles...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Interesting those winters didn't produce for you guys? Those were snowy for us NC folks. Granted, we get 2 good events and that's a great winter. Those winters did produce albeit not to the extent many would've liked. From where we are right now I think any reasonable snow lover would take what those winters offered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The pattern will transition to retrogression next week. The retrograding will mean, ultimately, the PNA will become more EPO/WPO and the trough axis may move back west as we move into early Feb. I don't expect a Dec-like recovery in the PV and a super +AO. In fact, I think it may average negative...gulp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm more interested in Wednesday for now. We could easily get a good vort pass and weak slp south of us. GFS is close to this and it's way out in time. Those NS pieces of energy are tricky and show their true colors inside of 4 days. Enough on the ensembles to keep your interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, the 12z gefs has a pretty sweet coastal signal for late next week. No cutters and some smackdowns. Some support for the Wed clipper to get right for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, the 12z gefs has a pretty sweet coastal signal for late next week. No cutters and some smackdowns. Some support for the Wed clipper to get right for us too. Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Anyone seen the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Anyone seen the GGEM? Stuck on 108 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Stuck on 120 on WXbell for the GGEM for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 With regards to the GGEM, you can see sporadic panels in hours 156, 180 and 198 and 228 on Tropical Tidbits. From looking at it, it seems that it misses the waves and we don't get too much; if anything at all. But I can't say for sure about the clipper mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro has some precip now for the clipper. Not a lot but still a good pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 168 on Euro looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro has some precip now for the clipper. Not a lot but still a good pass. Yea, closed lp contour in nc at 156 that blossoms offshore. Good to see it squeak by underneath. We haven't had a developer for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yea, closed lp contour in nc at 156 that blossoms offshore. Good to see it squeak by underneath. We haven't had a developer for a while. Def some room to go upward as long as it doesn't end up too south. Vort suggests it wouldn't as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Def some room to go upward as long as it doesn't end up too south. Vort suggests it wouldn't as of now. A bit flat on the run too. I'll go for broke and root for more amp and a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A bit flat on the run too. I'll go for broke and root for more amp and a bit further south. It's a nice run for now.. too bad it's 8 years away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Traffic jam on 12z EURO at 216.... looks like a transfer is going on in the SE... 1024 H moving off the New England Coast... 1007 L in Lake Superior... its a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Traffic jam on 12z EURO at 216.... looks like a transfer is going on in the SE Fujiwhara effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Its funny how the two camps' attention is divided: Little snow people: monitoring the clipper Ji and SECS or bust people: monitoring next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 MECSed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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