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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Dang... this is one powerful low... it goes from 1008mb at 207 to 986mb at 222 to 967mb at 228 to 955 at 234... so it deepens 53mb in about 27 hrs :o

 

Ensembles should be fun to see

bomb bomb bomb

 

frFlLYj.gif

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More like #majorcutter on this Euro run.... and its 979mb near BUF at 216

But 240 has a very cold arctic blast coming into the Upper Midwest... -26c 850s in NW MN, N ND, and NE MT

So the model that has been over amped all season is showing a cutter... I'm ok with where it is right now on all the guidance. We won't know details for several more days yet.
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And before some idiot says "that's exactly where we want it at this range"... I beg of you please for the love of god stop.

Please do..you're giving me a headache. :)

The potential storm is a week out. The waves in question are out over the WPAC currently. The higher frequency, off-equatorial forcings are often mishandled, even just 2-3 days out.

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Please do..you're giving me a headache. :)

The potential storm is a week out. The waves in question are out over the WPAC currently. The higher frequency, off-equatorial forcings are often mishandled, even just 2-3 days out.

OK cool so you at least get that I am making fun of the weenie justifications for why the model is not showing a snow storm... But I have to give to you... I have never heard it so eloquently stated than your last post. What a gem! If the gfs contiues to show a miss..You could ride that one until next tuesday.

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Sorry mods... Mini melt down this morning. Anyway all kidding aside... I was looking at the 6z and something just didn't look right... It looked kinda funny

Yeah, because I was about to rip you before I saw this.  All that hemming and hauling [sic] about weenies and you were acting just like one with that meltdown.  Only the weeniest of weenies think a model 210 hours out is gonna show the preferrable solution for 40 straight runs.

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I have unfortunately been in this area too long and taught myself to be negative and pessimistic when it comes to something tracking up the coast (or any snow in this area). This may sound stupid to some but it has actually helped the utter disappointment when it goes OTS. I'm not saying it will happen this time, but when I saw the overnight runs, I'm not so disappointed. Yes....we have issues.

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Yes yes! Agree 100%! Also been here for 50+ yrs. Still, forecasting > 4 days out is a crap shoot at best. How do forecasters in a public venue call for snow for 2 days a week out then go to sunny n mild!? This area for winter is rain, sleet with the occasional snow "storm" ...> 2-3" at best n maybe a "gotcha" sleeper cell up the coast to be sure. My $$ is on more of the same for this coming week. All fun to see paid "pros" squirm on they're failed forecasts tho! Its all good!

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Verbatim the possible Monday storm has some issues that need to be resolved.... like timing the cold air and getting precip far enough inland at the same time. Minor details to be worked out as we get closer.

~waits for continuation of PDIII meltdown~

Problem is those kinds of events rarely work out right. But we are a snowtown.. ;)
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