Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Very true.Honestly a number aren't too far off if you delete December which few were thinking would be blockbuster. Though a lot of that is following climo imo. The nao predictions have been bad on the whole even if it eventually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Honestly a number aren't too far off if you delete December which few were thinking would be blockbuster. Though a lot of that is following climo imo. The nao predictions have been bad on the whole even if it eventually happens. The NAO is beginning to strike me as an unsolved piece of the puzzle, I don't think we fully understand it yet, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I fully expect lots of people to claim victory if/when things turn favorable. I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb. I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived. The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Regardless of wrongly claiming any victory if the AO/NAO finally go negative, I think any of us would be very happy if that does happen! I really like the trends in the GEFS and now the Euro ensembles. Let's hope that's real in the upcoming week and not some transient feature. Next week also looks like it could be more interesting than originally thought. Sunday night into Monday now look like something to at least keep an eyeball on. Right now, it's a Miller-B type of system that is developing too late for us and it's too warm until it's gone past us (in fact, looks like we get dry-slotted looking at the GFS precip). But we'll see. Then, as others have mentioned, perhaps a clipper or two to keep in mind shortly after that? And of course, the period around the 23-25th has been highlighted in the deterministic models and ensembles for a little while now. Interesting stuff, let's hope we score something here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb. I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived. The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical. Exactly...good point. I think a lot of people were thinking this weekend through most (if not all) of next week was going to be a relaxation and moderate temperatures. Not necessarily a torch, but not good for snow by any stretch. Now, things look very intriguing. I think, if I recall correctly, that people were highlighting the period starting on or about the 25th. Which is still valid in itself. I am hopeful the signs of the AO and NAO going negative are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 18z GFS at 195 looks intriguing with a decent H in place and a 1010 L in N GOM... hope confluence isn't that strong to crush it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS looks good at 210...it'll probably just miss tho. That's fine if it does...uh, its 200 hours. Signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 OTS, btw I know how to check the between hrs like 201, 207, 210 on Instantweathermaps, kind of funny. Precip reaches Southern Maryland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS looks good at 210...it'll probably just miss tho. That's fine if it does...uh, its 200 hours. Signal. Def true... just the system being there is fine by me... also, looks like the ridge out west isn't in the best place for it to come up the coast, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 How?I looked at the http link and at the end of it, their is the hour, change it to any 3 hour increment.New GFS seems coastal happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The GFS 23-25th system looks good at this range still...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I looked at the http link and at the end of it, their is the hour, change it to any 3 hour increment.New GFS seems coastal happy. The pattern supports a coastal. Not really a model bias. At face value it's the best coastal pattern we've seen in a long long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and the storm is now suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and the storm is now suppressed.Right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I guess I haven't been paying attention lately. What happened to the 4-5 day warm-up? I was looking forward to some 45-55 degree days before winter arrived. Winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and the storm is now suppressed. But it's still there, which is perhaps more important when we're looking at 200+ hours out. And still pretty healthy looking. I'd almost be more worried if the GFS had absolutely nothing and no signal (or, perhaps if it were consistently showing a cutter or something like that); i.e., if it totally lost it. For now, this is a good sign. That system has been showing up for a little while in this same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Right where we want it It annihilates NC, verbatim. Grats New Bern on your foot+ of digital snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The system is now on all models. Thats the biggest takeaway from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The system is now on all models. Thats the biggest takeaway from today. Amen! That time period is "on the table" right now, so to speak. Let's hope that continues and is a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It annihilates NC, verbatim. Grats New Bern on your foot+ of digital snow!Would be funny if it ended up slamming NC. I kinda doubt it though. Progression not really too crazy. We often fail to warm back up after the first big cold shot.. Tho dc should string some pluses together in coming days. last 5-10 of jan have seemed in play more than a random event. Def was no signal like dec where we were bound to fail early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Operational GFS drops the -NAO pretty fast by 384 hours. What? Is this a serious post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Amen! That time period is "on the table" right now, so to speak. Let's hope that continues and is a reality. The Wednesday clipper could become interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Hour 102 is the strangest configuration off the coast which then barrels into New England. I think I'll watch that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hour 102 is the strangest configuration off the coast which then barrels into New England. I think I'll watch that closely. No that period is mine. I claim that one. I like it. Surprise snow coming Sunday-Monday time frame. edit- Surprise may not be the right word. Short lead sneaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 What? Is this a serious post? Making a observation. Don't haze me bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Making a observation. Don't haze me bro. Post something useful then. 384hr analysis of an Op run isn't useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 No that period is mine. I claim that one. I like it. Surprise snow coming Sunday-Monday time frame. edit- Surprise may not be the right word. Short lead sneaky. Vort pass was ok on the Euro. Reminds me a little of the Boxing Day flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Vort pass was ok on the Euro. Reminds me a little of the Boxing Day flizzard. Yeah I was thinking that too. Get it to dig a bit more and the trough to sharpen/go neg tilt sooner and it might be interesting.... Although I did half way decent here in that storm, with 5 inches or so, it was a dramatic cutoff west of me and there was 10"+ just east and NE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I dont know if I can ever recall more inconsistency from the models then we have seen this winter. I basically bailed on January yesterday because all of the runs were showing a dead southern stream. Today the southern stream is raging. The MJO is forecast to pass through 7 on its way to the COD over the next couple of weeks. We have that on our side at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I dont know if I can ever recall more inconsistency from the models then we have seen this winter. I basically bailed on January yesterday because all of the runs were showing a dead southern stream. Today the southern stream is raging. The MJO is forecast to pass through 7 on its way to the COD over the next couple of weeks. We have that on our side at least. we'll see on the southern stream I will say that the past 2 weeks has been one of the more stunningly fast disintegration of weak NINO conditions http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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