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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Very true.

Honestly a number aren't too far off if you delete December which few were thinking would be blockbuster. Though a lot of that is following climo imo. The nao predictions have been bad on the whole even if it eventually happens.
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Honestly a number aren't too far off if you delete December which few were thinking would be blockbuster. Though a lot of that is following climo imo. The nao predictions have been bad on the whole even if it eventually happens.

The NAO is beginning to strike me as an unsolved piece of the puzzle, I don't think we fully understand it yet, but what do I know.

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I fully expect lots of people to claim victory if/when things turn favorable.

I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb.

I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived.

The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical.

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Regardless of wrongly claiming any victory if the AO/NAO finally go negative, I think any of us would be very happy if that does happen!  I really like the trends in the GEFS and now the Euro ensembles.  Let's hope that's real in the upcoming week and not some transient feature.  Next week also looks like it could be more interesting than originally thought.  Sunday night into Monday now look like something to at least keep an eyeball on.  Right now, it's a Miller-B type of system that is developing too late for us and it's too warm until it's gone past us (in fact, looks like we get dry-slotted looking at the GFS precip).  But we'll see.  Then, as others have mentioned, perhaps a clipper or two to keep in mind shortly after that?  And of course, the period around the 23-25th has been highlighted in the deterministic models and ensembles for a little while now.  Interesting stuff, let's hope we score something here!

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I'm only specifically speaking about the timeframe it's happening. Nobody saw next week coming because it wasn't on the radar at all. HM was probobly most bullish based on start stuff among other things but it's been pretty bleak until the last 2 days of guidance. Snuck up on us and all we can do is hope it happens and holds into Feb.

I made some posts a few days ago about growing support for a -ao developing but felt it would most likely be weak neg or short lived.

The nao was basically punted until far into the future because it's been a blue hole up there for like 4 years and no end was in sight. The nao is difficult to forecast though. One of the more volatile indices. But it hasn't been volatile in winter for a long time. Which isn't very typical.

 

Exactly...good point.  I think a lot of people were thinking this weekend through most (if not all) of next week was going to be a relaxation and moderate temperatures.  Not necessarily a torch, but not good for snow by any stretch.  Now, things look very intriguing.  I think, if I recall correctly, that people were highlighting the period starting on or about the 25th.  Which is still valid in itself.

 

I am hopeful the signs of the AO and NAO going negative are real.

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and the storm is now suppressed.

 

But it's still there, which is perhaps more important when we're looking at 200+ hours out.  And still pretty healthy looking.  I'd almost be more worried if the GFS had absolutely nothing and no signal (or, perhaps if it were consistently showing a cutter or something like that); i.e., if it totally lost it.  For now, this is a good sign.  That system has been showing up for a little while in this same time frame.

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It annihilates NC, verbatim. Grats New Bern on your foot+ of digital snow!

Would be funny if it ended up slamming NC. I kinda doubt it though.

Progression not really too crazy. We often fail to warm back up after the first big cold shot.. Tho dc should string some pluses together in coming days. last 5-10 of jan have seemed in play more than a random event. Def was no signal like dec where we were bound to fail early.

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Hour 102 is the strangest configuration off the coast which then barrels into New England. I think I'll watch that closely.

No that period is mine. I claim that one. I like it. Surprise snow coming Sunday-Monday time frame.

 

edit- Surprise may not be the right word. Short lead sneaky.

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No that period is mine. I claim that one. I like it. Surprise snow coming Sunday-Monday time frame.

edit- Surprise may not be the right word. Short lead sneaky.

Vort pass was ok on the Euro. Reminds me a little of the Boxing Day flizzard.
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Vort pass was ok on the Euro. Reminds me a little of the Boxing Day flizzard.

Yeah I was thinking that too. Get it to dig a bit more and the trough to sharpen/go neg tilt sooner and it might be interesting.... Although I did half way decent here in that storm, with 5 inches or so, it was a dramatic cutoff west of me and there was 10"+ just east and NE of me.

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I dont know if I can ever recall more inconsistency from the models then we have seen this winter. I basically bailed on January yesterday because all of the runs were showing a dead southern stream. Today the southern stream is raging. The MJO is forecast to pass through 7 on its way to the COD over the next couple of weeks. We have that on our side at least.

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

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I dont know if I can ever recall more inconsistency from the models then we have seen this winter. I basically bailed on January yesterday because all of the runs were showing a dead southern stream. Today the southern stream is raging. The MJO is forecast to pass through 7 on its way to the COD over the next couple of weeks. We have that on our side at least.

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

we'll see on the southern stream

I will say that the past 2 weeks has been one of the more stunningly fast disintegration of weak NINO conditions

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

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