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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I've been so bummed so far that I haven't cared to bother about record keeping to this point.  If the temps are similar it seems it's because of the cloudy, rainy cap on the highs.  We've hardly even broken freezing for lows this Dec.  Last night was one of only a handful of times this month (a month that avgs. below 32F everyday).

 

(Never mind, I decided to examine the records to see if my perception matched reality.  Indeed, it does.)

 

As of yesterday at KOKV

 

+1F highs

+6F lows

# < 32F lows = 6

# > 32F lows = 14

 

And these departures will only grow by month's end.  There is no sugar-coating this Dec; it is HORRIBLE.

About as bad here

+1.6 highs

+5.1 lows

17 below 32

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I just looked. A lot of nice little 2-4" hits in there. Mean is .5-1" of snow.

 

It's a sneaky little setup. Not deep or strong enough to show a decisive signal. Just a potential little scrape after the initial rain moves through and colder air comes in behind it. I'm with Ian. Would be nice to get on the board this month regardless of how puny it is. 

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It might actually be to our benefit to have a few weak little waves ride along the front instead of one big consolidated storm. Should help keep them to our south at least. I see some potential over the next couple of weeks at least. 

 

By the way. It has been exactly one month today since I have seen a snowflake. Weird December for sure.

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Well we know n and w had a great dec last year and it was avg or above everywhere just about. That alone is quite different. Last winter was one of the best back loaded winters ever in the 95 corridor so it seems a poor bar going forward.

Even during the 80s i don't remember a March like last year so yea its not a good reference point just like 09/10 isnt. 2-3 significant (3-6"?) snowstorms per year is a good expectation for dc to have imo.

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I'm fine acting like Dec snow is meaningless if we do the same for March. How much did everyone get in March last year?

 

Although March may now be a winter month!  Over the last 10 winters, I averaged 3.5" in DEC and 2.8" in March...Of course December is skewed by a 19" storm. I basically consider them the same month in terms of snow opportunity.  Other than the 2011-12 disaster, I've gotten at least one 1"+ event in December and/or March.  But that said, I don't think you can count on anything substantial in either month.  I'd put our (me and you) chances of a March accumulating snowfall at around 60-65%.  Which isn't bad, but that 35-40% chance of a shut out isn't insubstantial.  I average about 65% of my snow between 1/15 and 2/28.  Even last year with the big March, still got over 50% of my snow in that 6 week window.  I average about 12" in that window.  It sucks that the heart of our winter is essentially 6 weeks long, but that is DC.  I guess what I am saying is that I don't feel like we are wasting a productive period, so I am not that bothered by it.  At this point I am 100% agnostic about whether we reach climo.  I think it is a total coin flip right now.

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December sucks for snow most years. Not counting the northern tier of MD, or far western Va, last Dec was meh for most. 1.5" here, followed by 17" in Jan. As for March, just going by memory it seems I get more snow in March than Dec most years. Last year March rocked of course, 14" here.

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I try not to get get caught up in when it's supposed to snow and try to get excited when it snows...must admit though the constant long range blech reviews are a bit disheartening and I've had my snarky sarcastic moments...but hey...can't control it....so I just go silent mostly. I can't wait for the surprise snow!!

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Winter 2013-14 all measurements are official spotter reports

61.5"

December 8th - 4"

December 10th - 3"

December 14th - 0.3

January 2-3 - 4.5"

January 18 - 0.5"

January 21 - 7.3"

January 28-29 - 0.2

February 3 - .5

February 4-5 - whole lotta ice .33

February 9th - 0.3

February 12-13 - 18.2"

February 15th - 1"

February 17-18 .8"

February 25 - 1"

February 26 - .5

March 3 - 7"

March 16-17 10"

March 25 - 2.5"

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I never considered December and March snow to be "bonus snow". To me "bonus snow" is in a rare climo period like October, November and April. DJFM, to me, are snow months.

 

I think anything after March 10th or so in the coastal plain is bonus snow, same with pre Dec 10th. That would give about 3 months to reasonably expect snow.

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just doesn't feel like an average year to me....in fact, it feels different than any other year

I think it ends up 1 extreme or the other....<5" or >25"

the fall wx had all the earmarks of a great winter imho, but the shut out so far (and it hasn't even been close) has chiseled away at the underlying positive attitude created by the fall wx

frankly, I'm torn at this point but remain cautiously optimistic (down from very optimistic a month ago, if not anticipating a great winter)

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right now, it looks like a fail to me

the only thing that saves it is a real tanking of the AO in the next week and a SSW that results in some real cold air into the conus, including us

Eh, we had plenty of blocky winters with no ssw required. Especially the month of Dec.

If we go into Feb and things remain so-so or worse, part of me is going to root for a crappy finish for the entire east. It would be the largest collective lr bust since I joined the forums. And it will help me not waste time in the fall thinking it matters irt winter.

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