mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It was a fairly large run over run shift for the euro ens. Need to see some consistency before biting but this is the best 5 day mean of the year by a wide margin. May not be above normal precip wise (looks like split flow but possibly suppressed)but it's plenty cold and nice to look at. euro5day.JPG jb showed this to day. said its the best it can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm more interested in what happens after the front passes on Monday. Euro and GFS both have a clipper with a track close enough to pay attention to on Wednesday and the northern stream looks pretty active behind it. Not a bad h5 look to get something underneath us next week. Euro ensemebles show a couple coastal solutions next weekend but massive spread from nothing to west tracks to miller b's to runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Do we want great Lakes lows at Day 9? It's associated with a large closed upper level low over the lakes. The closed low keeps the storm from cutting. It's a similar pattern to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thats the prettiest (and only) fantasy storm I've seen in a long time Yeah, it's been a while since we've seen a digital long range snowfall on the GFS that pretty in the 8-10 day range. It's a testament to how awful it's been so far that we're all so excited over digital snow that we'll be lucy'd with. 18z will show 50 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM has the mother of all cutters for the same time period. So some signal is there I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM has the mother of all cutters for the same time period. So some signal is there I guess. GFS has been showing a storm off and on for that time period for about a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I love the excitement then I see 360 on the model map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I love the excitement then I see 360 on the model map. It's a 5 day mean. Here's 228 to add some hop in your step. 12z GEFS looks just like the euro now. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 WRT cutter, didn't realize the 12UT GGEM ran out 10 days. When did that start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It's a 5 day mean. Here's 228 to add some hop in your step. 12z GEFS looks just like the euro now. It's coming. forian.JPG I don't know about precip but with what is shown down the road certainly argues for another shot or two of serious cold and it may last. Despite the lack of snow this year the cold has not underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And i will apologize to Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maue for trolling them about the weatherbell winter forecast. don't apologize. Jb is beyond annoying the way he hypes everything on twitter then whines when he isn't right. Trolling him is like good sport on a boring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I don't know about precip but with what is shown down the road certainly argues for another shot or two of serious cold and it may last. Despite the lack of snow this year the cold has not underperformed. I just took a look at the 12z GFS 2m high temps. There is no real "torch". It looks like endless upper-30s, with the occasional 45F thrown in. Not really above average at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Always 10 days away... Back to chasing the epic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Always 10 days away... Back to chasing the epic pattern. It actually starts looking decent starting in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It actually starts looking decent starting in 7 days. is that a clipper I see on the lousy Plymouth maps day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 this looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 is that a clipper I see on the lousy Plymouth maps day 7? Based on the vort passes alone, I'd think there's a chance for 2 light snow episodes next week: Monday and Wednesday. Both look like they might take a good track for us to get some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 is that a clipper I see on the lousy Plymouth maps day 7? It's been there for a while. First time the euro has the vort underneath us. GFS was real close too. Unfortunately, the big storm in NE spinning around shears the vort as it passes south so there isn't anything verbatim precip wise. First and foremost, we need the vort pass south of us. And that is trending in our favor for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 this looks interesting until i saw that it produces no precip for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro looking a bit GFSish at 216 and 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro looking a bit GFSish at 216 and 240? Confluence from the pv dropping down pushes it ots. At least the miller A is there. Ji will hate this run. ETA: I just looked at the bigger h5 picture. PV and 50/50 combo creating a stone wall of confluence. IMO- any track is on the table including a cutter. No way to know for a while. I'll concentrate on clipperfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Confluence from the pv dropping down pushes it ots. At least the miller A is there. Ji will hate this run. Rather OTS than a big cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Confluence from the pv dropping down pushes it ots. At least the miller A is there. Ji will hate this run. Ji hates every run. Glad to see the Miller A signals are there regardless. I'm done with pixie dust/cartoppers for the season. I need something real. And no Unicorns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Ji hates every run. Glad to see the Miller A signals are there regardless. I'm done with pixie dust/cartoppers for the season. I need something real. And no Unicorns! Winter so far has proven again and again not to look to far into the future. Things are jumpy right now. The modeled relax is now a no nevermind and next week looks like it will have some chances before fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM has the mother of all cutters for the same time period. So some signal is there I guess. considering the GGEm has given us about 100 inches of snow this year....Im actually glad its showing a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Winter so far has proven again and again not to look to far into the future. Things are jumpy right now. The modeled relax is now a no nevermind and next week looks like it will have some chances before fantasyland. the Jan thaw is cancelled no. I am not seeing anything above normal temps on the Euro 10 day. Jan will go down as below average temp and above average snowfall if we can score one nice storm HOLY Crap--i just said something positive. this winter still sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Winter so far has proven again and again not to look to far into the future. Things are jumpy right now. The modeled relax is now a no nevermind and next week looks like it will have some chances before fantasyland. Next week looks like a lot of trackable action potentially. Winter of 14-15 is still alive. Climo January snowfall is still a very feasible goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Next week looks like a lot of trackable action potentially. Winter of 14-15 is still alive. Climo January snowfall is still a very feasible goal. This is a pretty wild look at h5. I-70 east runs about 1500 miles into the atlantic so the storm has zero chance at turning the corner. We're going to get teased pretty bad with this one for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This is a pretty wild look at h5. I-70 east runs about 1500 miles into the atlantic so the storm has zero chance at turning the corner. We're going to get teased pretty bad with this one for a while. funny ur using a tropical tidbit map when you have weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 funny ur using a tropical tidbit map when you have weatherbell I can't hotlink wxbell because nobody will see the image unless they subscribe. Easier to use tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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