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January Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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The PARA still seems to want to go more -PNA/-EPO...hopefully that is not correct because without a -NAO that will still make it very hard to get snow events here..fortunately it seems to have been bad in the Day 10 plus range overall.

Euro ens are right in between. The look definitely has shades of last year so reasonable expectations would mean storm chances are going to be fast moving, not moisture laden, not take up a ton of real estate, and the MA will be flirting with temp problems if a threat materializes (unless well timed). Euro looks like a +nao through the end (but not nearly as hostile as the first half of this month).

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1230 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

MDZ017-018-VAZ057-141330-

/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.150114T0600Z-150114T1700Z/

ST. MARYS-CALVERT-KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST MARYS CITY

1230 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET... WHICH IS

IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH

3 AM. PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE

MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS... RISING INTO

THE LOWER 30S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THIS COUPLED WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL

CAUSE ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS

DRIVING CONDITIONS.

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EURO/GFS 00z runs some of the better runs I've seen in a while...hope arising? 

I thought they looked really promising.  Active pattern, lots of threats to track and ample cold air.  GEFS, at least, have totally abandoned any sign of a -NAO, but look to keep the AO near neutral.  

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I thought they looked really promising.  Active pattern, lots of threats to track and ample cold air.  GEFS, at least, have totally abandoned any sign of a -NAO, but look to keep the AO near neutral.  

I kind of like what the ensemble means spit out in the longer ranges so maybe I'll have something fun to write about in my outlook tomorrow. 

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I kind of like what the ensemble means spit out in the longer ranges so maybe I'll have something fun to write about in my outlook tomorrow. 

From what I've seen posted elsewhere on the board, the EPS still likes the NAO to go negative later this month, along with the AO.  But it seems the GEFS has been leading the EPS lately, and the GEFS has totally reversed on the NAO and cooled on the idea of a  strong -AO.  Still though, as you said, the pattern looks decent with opportunities for fun.  

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It is interesting that the gefs have given up on the idea of ridging over Greenland.  What is even more interesting is the EPS has ridging starting to show up in Greenland around day 6 and over the pole shortly after.  No longer and 11-15 thing according to the EPS.  A good test for the med range ens.

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From what I've seen posted elsewhere on the board, the EPS still likes the NAO to go negative later this month, along with the AO.  But it seems the GEFS has been leading the EPS lately, and the GEFS has totally reversed on the NAO and cooled on the idea of a  strong -AO.  Still though, as you said, the pattern looks decent with opportunities for fun.  

 

It was a fairly large run over run shift for the euro ens. Need to see some consistency before biting but this is the best 5 day mean of the year by a wide margin. May not be above normal precip wise (looks like split flow but possibly suppressed)but it's plenty cold and nice to look at. 

 

post-2035-0-73865300-1421252754_thumb.jp

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