Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Precip sucks. Where are the storms Next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The PARA still seems to want to go more -PNA/-EPO...hopefully that is not correct because without a -NAO that will still make it very hard to get snow events here..fortunately it seems to have been bad in the Day 10 plus range overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The PARA still seems to want to go more -PNA/-EPO...hopefully that is not correct because without a -NAO that will still make it very hard to get snow events here..fortunately it seems to have been bad in the Day 10 plus range overall. Euro ens are right in between. The look definitely has shades of last year so reasonable expectations would mean storm chances are going to be fast moving, not moisture laden, not take up a ton of real estate, and the MA will be flirting with temp problems if a threat materializes (unless well timed). Euro looks like a +nao through the end (but not nearly as hostile as the first half of this month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 My forecast shows sunny for Saturday and Sunday. That looks far from certain on the GFS ens members....but they all look pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream?A No No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream? Nolan Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream? You're way above average snow for the last two winters. Plus you know what February will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1230 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 MDZ017-018-VAZ057-141330- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.150114T0600Z-150114T1700Z/ ST. MARYS-CALVERT-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST MARYS CITY 1230 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH 3 AM. PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...MID 20S DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS... RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS COUPLED WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream? We're not in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 EURO/GFS 00z runs some of the better runs I've seen in a while...hope arising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Friday the 23rd looks to be promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 El Nosno ? What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What do you call a nino with no blocking and no southern stream?the winter of 14/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 EURO/GFS 00z runs some of the better runs I've seen in a while...hope arising? I thought they looked really promising. Active pattern, lots of threats to track and ample cold air. GEFS, at least, have totally abandoned any sign of a -NAO, but look to keep the AO near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I thought they looked really promising. Active pattern, lots of threats to track and ample cold air. GEFS, at least, have totally abandoned any sign of a -NAO, but look to keep the AO near neutral. I kind of like what the ensemble means spit out in the longer ranges so maybe I'll have something fun to write about in my outlook tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I kind of like what the ensemble means spit out in the longer ranges so maybe I'll have something fun to write about in my outlook tomorrow. From what I've seen posted elsewhere on the board, the EPS still likes the NAO to go negative later this month, along with the AO. But it seems the GEFS has been leading the EPS lately, and the GEFS has totally reversed on the NAO and cooled on the idea of a strong -AO. Still though, as you said, the pattern looks decent with opportunities for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It is interesting that the gefs have given up on the idea of ridging over Greenland. What is even more interesting is the EPS has ridging starting to show up in Greenland around day 6 and over the pole shortly after. No longer and 11-15 thing according to the EPS. A good test for the med range ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 From what I've seen posted elsewhere on the board, the EPS still likes the NAO to go negative later this month, along with the AO. But it seems the GEFS has been leading the EPS lately, and the GEFS has totally reversed on the NAO and cooled on the idea of a strong -AO. Still though, as you said, the pattern looks decent with opportunities for fun. It was a fairly large run over run shift for the euro ens. Need to see some consistency before biting but this is the best 5 day mean of the year by a wide margin. May not be above normal precip wise (looks like split flow but possibly suppressed)but it's plenty cold and nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS with a nice storm on the 24th-25th..... which has been a signal off and on for several days now. Nice signal on the 12z GFS still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 New GFS looks pretty for Day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I would be extremely happy to see the next weekend event at least stay on the models any model consistently. Tired of the "got-it, don't got it" lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 All hail the new GFS... So long as that D9-10 storms sticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just took a peek at day 9-10--would love that look to stick! Can it? Nothing has yet, but it seems like the pattern is changing for the better around that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 All hail the new GFS... So long as that D9-10 storms sticks... oh it'll stick. it'll always be there 9-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Oh man... if that Day 9 storm happens, then I will immediately take back every single complaint I've had about this winter. WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 that looks nice. Way to start off the new upgraded GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 New GFS looks pretty for Day 9-10 Thats the prettiest (and only) fantasy storm I've seen in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Oh man... if that Day 9 storm happens, then I will immediately take back every single complaint I've had about this winter. WOOF. And i will apologize to Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maue for trolling them about the weatherbell winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Do we want great Lakes lows at Day 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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