AvantHiatus Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What is that in the Atlantic at hr 222? Lol it's a monster. MJO Phase 7 superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nino really crapped itself. If any area of long range forecast needs axing that might be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 As bad as 2011/12 and 2012/13 were for snow (so, so bad), my memory was that there were at least storms to follow on the models (before they inevitably broke hearts) throughout the seasons. We cannot really buy even that so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nino really crapped itself. If any area of long range forecast needs axing that might be it. ENSO forecasting is not very good...some years models have been downright awful...I'm glad I went for positive neutral, though in the end all people care about is ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Nino really crapped itself. If any area of long range forecast needs axing that might be it. Yeah, huge bust. Makes Sam Bowie look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm pretty sick of hearing about the Barents-Kara sea from Cohen. I understand it is real, but really exposes a flaw in his research. And it is hardly the only thing that can go wrong. It is the tip of the iceberg. I am pretty sure that Dr. Cohen is simply ignorant to other people in this specific area; and, he has gone as far as to say their work is not as useful as his. This is just straight "living life lesson 101" kind of stuff where as you as you think you're the sh-t and have it all figured out, nature says "go F yourself." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The best people in this field, and specifically long range, understand the time scale issue (trying to separate multiple signals that play out over multiple time scales) and know they do not know everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 ENSO forecasting is not very good...some years models have been downright awful...I'm glad I went for positive neutral, though in the end all people care about is ground truth I was pretty skeptical of the super nino calls at the time because the modeling has been so bad in prior runs. Though still kinda humorous not much happened. The archives are brilliant: https://www.google.com/search?q=super+el+nino&espv=2&biw=1280&bih=880&source=lnt&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:2/1/2014,cd_max:5/1/2014&tbm=#q=monster+el+nino&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:2/1/2014,cd_max:5/1/2014&start=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It goes back to something that Coastalwx has been saying since the beginning of Dec. "Bend don't break" persistence with the PV. I suppose it can only be a good thing that it is getting disturbed and beat up a bit at least right? This last cold outbreak seemed to be in response to the temporary split. At least it's active in the strat and not a giant whirlpool from top to bottom sitting over the pole for weeks on end. Actually, this did break. This assault was enough to literally split it into two. I'm not sure this vortex can entirely recover anyway but it's never a way to get an official SSW (splits). There's always 1 sister vortex that survives and keeps the wind westerly. But, that's okay because all minor warmings are important, too. And yes, it was intimately involved with this cold shot, as we discussed prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 what killed this winter was the euro tease of dec 21 storm. Had that storm happened this winter would of been off to a decent start. The lack of tracking anything less than 5 says out has been non existant and depressing. Now we are 10 days away again. We have had worse patterns but the lack of storms to track and lack of Souther jet overall has been dissapointing i don't know much but i do agree with the statements by many that the atlantic has not cooperated. it seems to have been mostly closed for business this year, similar to how the gulf can get when the northern stream dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Folks, What's not to like about the 12Z EPS 11-15? Nice -AO and neutral to possibly even a slight -NAO developing. Very nice western ridging bringing in the Arctic fun into the Midwest while WSW 500 mb flow brings moisture underneath for potential mischief. Looks splitflowish as opposed to a deep Arctic plunge, which would give the MidAtlantic and SE an opportunity for something sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Folks, What's not to like about the 12Z EPS 11-15? Nice -AO and neutral to possibly even a slight -NAO developing. Very nice western ridging bringing in the Arctic fun into the Midwest while WSW 500 mb flow brings moisture underneath for potential mischief. Looks splitflowish as opposed to a deep Arctic plunge, which would give the MidAtlantic and SE an opportunity for something sweet. I just posted in your subform. lol. Notable shift away from the lowest heights getting stuck in the sw and also the best high latitude look of the year by a mile. Transition from d10-15 is quick. Love the broad conus trough with split flow and wsw upper level flow. Still not a perfect big storm pattern but a blend of the EPS/GEFS would certainly up the odds at getting accum snow before the month closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I just posted in your subform. lol. Notable shift away from the lowest heights getting stuck in the sw and also the best high latitude look of the year by a mile. Transition from d10-15 is quick. Love the broad conus trough with split flow and wsw upper level flow. Still not a perfect big storm pattern but a blend of the EPS/GEFS would certainly up the odds at getting accum snow before the month closes. Bob, Lol. Our cross-posts crossed. Wintry precipwise, it might be closer to an optimal setup for the SE since we often do best with overrunning/weak Gulf lows as opposed to strong phasing type storms since weak lows make it easier for it to stay cold enough, which isn't easy down my way. However, I'd think this would still give you guys a decent shot, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS with a nice storm on the 24th-25th..... which has been a signal off and on for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS with a nice storm on the 24th-25th..... which has been a signal off and on for several days now. would like to see that high to the northwest in place of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I am pretty sure that Dr. Cohen is simply ignorant to other people in this specific area; and, he has gone as far as to say their work is not as useful as his. This is just straight "living life lesson 101" kind of stuff where as you as you think you're the sh-t and have it all figured out, nature says "go F yourself." I have to say this is one of the things that makes weather so interesting from a hobbyist perspective. For all of our advances mother nature can still show us who's boss and gives us another puzzle to try and figure out. I love how a big snow storm can just bring the hustle and bustle of everyday life to standstill, if even only for a few days. Anyways, this "Nino" got off to late start, does that have anything to do with why its not quite behaving as expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS with a nice storm on the 24th-25th..... which has been a signal off and on for several days now. 18z? All I saw was a clipper to the north. Maybe I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18z? All I saw was a clipper to the north. Maybe I missed it. I couldn't find it either. Now hour 240 on Para looked pretty good but not sure where that would go after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 00z GGEM Day 9 and 10 looks interesting... 1040 H right were we want it to be, though the low tracks right over or just east of us... Its very juicy as a Miller A storm as well... yes it is rain, but that H in Quebec may help us some ETA: 00z GFS has the idea of it... but doesn't do much with it for us ETA 2: 00z EURO has a storm as well, but SLP is in N AR... but there is a 1032 H entering Quebec... hopefully there is a transfer because it looks like it might cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm all in for this Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think most are over in the short range thread focused on tomorrow, but since I am on the outside looking in on that one I will take up the torch here. To my bloodshot eyes it seems the EPS and GEFS have switched places. Both reload the EPO, and I think its safe to say that is likely to be a feature we can rely on to supply cold the rest of winter. Its stable and supported by the SST in the PAC. However, the GEFS was advertising a better AO/NAO while the EPS was more of the same. Now is seems last night the GEFS continues to show a raging positive NAO while the EPS wants to build some ridging into Greenland. Odd that they have flip flopped and definitely does not build confidence. ALso the "better" pattern has been pushed back a bit again, so once again before it can get inside the "believable" range it shifts back a few days. Often models do jump on a pattern too fast and it does eventually happen but I would like to see it progress forward soon. Finally, I am worred with the NINO now just about totally dead we are lacking any new forcing mechanism to shake up the pattern. I do think there is some evidence to suggest the sudden shift to a very progressive patter, an awful atlantic, and lack of SST that occurred suddenly in mid december might have had something to do with the solar max/qbo combo. When they hapen in tandem there seems to be a bad link for us. Those are waning, but the atmoshphere often operates on inertia and waits for a new dominant actor to take over. The NINO would have helped but with that dead not sure we get the forcing needed to shake things up. Hopefully the shortening wavelenghts as we head into February will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm all in for this Wednesday. GFS says NO SNOW FOR YOU TOMORROW. At least DC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think most are over in the short range thread focused on tomorrow, but since I am on the outside looking in on that one I will take up the torch here. To my bloodshot eyes it seems the EPS and GEFS have switched places. Both reload the EPO, and I think its safe to say that is likely to be a feature we can rely on to supply cold the rest of winter. Its stable and supported by the SST in the PAC. However, the GEFS was advertising a better AO/NAO while the EPS was more of the same. Now is seems last night the GEFS continues to show a raging positive NAO while the EPS wants to build some ridging into Greenland. Odd that they have flip flopped and definitely does not build confidence. ALso the "better" pattern has been pushed back a bit again, so once again before it can get inside the "believable" range it shifts back a few days. Often models do jump on a pattern too fast and it does eventually happen but I would like to see it progress forward soon. Finally, I am worred with the NINO now just about totally dead we are lacking any new forcing mechanism to shake up the pattern. I do think there is some evidence to suggest the sudden shift to a very progressive patter, an awful atlantic, and lack of SST that occurred suddenly in mid december might have had something to do with the solar max/qbo combo. When they hapen in tandem there seems to be a bad link for us. Those are waning, but the atmoshphere often operates on inertia and waits for a new dominant actor to take over. The NINO would have helped but with that dead not sure we get the forcing needed to shake things up. Hopefully the shortening wavelenghts as we head into February will do the trick. which basically highlights the problem with those 10+ day ensemble forecasts I've pretty much resigned myself to us getting a fluke or nothing this winter weak, warm ENSOs's are not generally kind to us snow-wise, and this one is true to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 which basically highlights the problem with those 10+ day ensemble forecasts I've pretty much resigned myself to us getting a fluke or nothing this winter weak, warm ENSOs's are not generally kind to us snow-wise, and this one is true to form Nobody can really say how things evolve over the next 2 weeks. The only agreement is strong epo ridging building and a fairly likely substantial cold dump into the conus inside of 2 weeks. Ensemble 850 temp anomalies are really cold for such long leads. This isn't typical because spread usually smooths things out more. There's pretty good agreement. Of course how the push evolves will have quite a bit of impact on our sensible wx. If it dumps down the rockies into the SW then we know the deal. It will bleed over and storms in advance won't likely have a friendly track. If it pushes down the east slopes of the rockies and there is some semblance of a +pna then we get interesting pretty quick. I could envision a period like last year with cold nearby or overhead with fast flow and shotgun style events up and down the coast. If we get a more broad conus trough and a relax of the blue hole over greenland/iceland then larger events could happen like overrunning or even a coastal. I'm not down on winter at all. We don't get hammered often and this one is playing out like a typical close to climo type winter. Even the Jan relax is looking like nothing. Few days in the 40's and 50's with fronts mixed in. Heck, look at this vort pass on Monday: One thing seems pretty clear, the change in the pattern for late month appears to be something that we haven't seen this winter and it isn't going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nobody can really say how things evolve over the next 2 weeks. The only agreement is strong epo ridging building and a fairly likely substantial cold dump into the conus inside of 2 weeks. Ensemble 850 temp anomalies are really cold for such long leads. This isn't typical because spread usually smooths things out more. There's pretty good agreement. Of course how the push evolves will have quite a bit of impact on our sensible wx. If it dumps down the rockies into the SW then we know the deal. It will bleed over and storms in advance won't likely have a friendly track. If it pushes down the east slopes of the rockies and there is some semblance of a +pna then we get interesting pretty quick. I could envision a period like last year with cold nearby or overhead with fast flow and shotgun style events up and down the coast. If we get a more broad conus trough and a relax of the blue hole over greenland/iceland then larger events could happen like overrunning or even a coastal. I'm not down on winter at all. We don't get hammered often and this one is playing out like a typical close to climo type winter. Even the Jan relax is looking like nothing. Few days in the 40's and 50's with fronts mixed in. Heck, look at this vort pass on Monday: vort.JPG One thing seems pretty clear, the change in the pattern for late month appears to be something that we haven't seen this winter and it isn't going to be warm. Bob, I have a bad taste in my mouth in case you haven't noticed lol We may get the cold, but w/o snow, it's meaningless to me and a waste of money. And with our poor history of snow during weak, warm ENSO periods, there's little for me to get excited about.....throw in how few chances we've had and considering winters normally show their hand by now, I expect nothing to change. But, of course, hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS says NO SNOW FOR YOU TOMORROW. At least DC north Good thing I work Southeast then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Long range GEFS has the +PNA/-EPO combo and AO looks around neutral by eyeball, but it says we're going to take that +NAO and LIKE IT DAMN IT. Next Monday is worth half an eyeball too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Long range GEFS has the +PNA/-EPO combo and AO looks around neutral by eyeball, but it says we're going to take that +NAO and LIKE IT DAMN IT. Next Monday is worth half an eyeball too. Euro blows up the wave on Monday but verbatim it's cold chasing precip. Considering it had nothing like this last night we have time to get teased and then Lucie'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Euro is joining the GFS with the cold shot next Mon/Tue. Looks fairly impressive. Negative departures for the month are looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Precip sucks. Where are the storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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