January Med/Long Range Disco

[Ji]

Every time I've looked at the euro this winter...a little piece of me has died

[North Balti Zen]

Every time I've looked at the euro this winter...a little piece of me has died

 

I wasted money getting a SV subscription so I could see the Euro for myself this year. Hasn't been anything to see. Just sadness.

[stormtracker]

Every time I've looked at the euro this winter...a little piece of me has died

It really is depressing looking at long range models and seeing nothing.

[Heisy]

It really is depressing looking at long range models and seeing nothing.

 

That is the worst part, honestly 75% of this hobby for me is tracking the "big one"....Half the time I don't even care if the storm comes to fruition, it is exciting to see a HECS on a bunch of LR models, this year, there really has been nothing to track. 

[snowfan]

That is the worst part, honestly 75% of this hobby for me is tracking the "big one"....Half the time I don't even care if the storm comes to fruition, it is exciting to see a HECS on a bunch of LR models, this year, there really has been nothing to track. 

I'm not even sure most of us are in for tracking the big one. It would be a terribly boring hobby 99% of the time if we were just interested in big storms. Just something to track....even just a repeat of last week is good by me. 

[das]

It's pretty obvious this year that making a definitive call beyond 7 days is risky as heck. Anybody calling for winter cancel or uncancel is at equal odds of blowing it.

DT came in here and declared the gefs being total bs and that there is no way the ao is going negative inside of 2 weeks. Now the euro ens mean is showing a -ao along with the gefs. Still no guaranty it will happen but this is one heck of a tough year to figure out 2+ week pattern evolution

 

Morning, Bob.  Please clear a little space in your PM inbox and then ping me.  Thanks in advance...

DAS

[Scuddz]

I'm all in for next Wednesday.

[Ian]

I'm all in for next Wednesday.

Looks like the outer banks is in the game if we successfully raise the freezing point by then. 

[usedtobe]

It's pretty obvious this year that making a definitive call beyond 7 days is risky as heck. Anybody calling for winter cancel or uncancel is at equal odds of blowing it.

DT came in here and declared the gefs being total bs and that there is no way the ao is going negative inside of 2 weeks. Now the euro ens mean is showing a -ao along with the gefs. Still no guaranty it will happen but this is one heck of a tough year to figure out 2+ week pattern evolution

 

Way to early to cancel winter but the next 2 weeks looks pretty bleak.  Beyond that it looks like the AO may go negative though the ensemble members are showing lots of spread so that is far from a done deal.   The ensembles are also hinting that the negative EPO may come back after a period with a positive one if the euro is right.  However, even witgh the high heights over Ak towards the end of the month, the ridge over the Pacific is a little west of where we'd like.  The good news is the models have sucked beyond two weeks.  The bad is that more often than not, the ridge over the west has popped far enough west to allow a trough to dig into the southwest, 

[Deck Pic]

We're better off than those +5 to +8 Januarys that we have had several of the last decade, when the pattern was completely dead

[Bob Chill]

Way to early to cancel winter but the next 2 weeks looks pretty bleak.  Beyond that it looks like the AO may go negative though the ensemble members are showing lots of spread so that is far from a done deal.   The ensembles are also hinting that the negative EPO may come back after a period with a positive one if the euro is right.  However, even witgh the high heights over Ak towards the end of the month, the ridge over the Pacific is a little west of where we'd like.  The good news is the models have sucked beyond two weeks.  The bad is that more often than not, the ridge over the west has popped far enough west to allow a trough to dig into the southwest, 

 

I'm mostly interested in the changes in the atlantic. The pac doesn't appear to be heading back to hostility and the warm up is nothing more than a typical 5+/- day kinda deal. What is catching my eye is the look of the atlantic. Still not great but much better than where we've been. 

 

Dec sucked. The composite tells the story in the 2 seconds it takes to look at this. 

 

 

Ridiculous low height anomaly over greenland and iceland and a western atlantic ridge from hell was pretty telling. Things like that don't magically vanish. And they didn't in Jan. We just got lucky with the PAC help delivering cold and timing a clipper. 

 

 

 

Now we have decent agreement in losing the low height anomaly over greenland and iceland. It's not a -nao of consequence but will definitely have an impact on storm track if it verifies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like you said, much will depend on the pac evolution but it won't need to be the shining star if things can get going better in the atlantic. Both the GEFS and Euro have a decent split flow look and would imply overrunning possibilities in the east. Organized storms can still cut of course but they won't nearly have as easy of a time. Much will depend on hp placement and whether than can be some semblance of a 50/50 feature. Neither of these features will show on long lead ens mean plots. 

 

IMHO- It looks like a pattern change in the atlantic towards something we haven't seen this winter is becoming possible to hopefully likely. If it were to verify in some fashion, it's also the type of pattern that can evolve into a more useful -ao/nao in Feb. I think the biggest net+ to what is being advertised is losing the blue hole over greenland and iceland. We can only hope at this point. At least things aren't bleak.  

[HighStakes]

I'm mostly interested in the changes in the atlantic. The pac doesn't appear to be heading back to hostility and the warm up is nothing more than a typical 5+/- day kinda deal. What is catching my eye is the look of the atlantic. Still not great but much better than where we've been. 

 

Dec sucked. The composite tells the story in the 2 seconds it takes to look at this. 

 

dech5.JPG

 

Ridiculous low height anomaly over greenland and iceland and a western atlantic ridge from hell was pretty telling. Things like that don't magically vanish. And they didn't in Jan. We just got lucky with the PAC help delivering cold and timing a clipper. 

 

janh5.JPG

 

 

Now we have decent agreement in losing the low height anomaly over greenland and iceland. It's not a -nao of consequence but will definitely have an impact on storm track if it verifies.

 

gefsh5.JPG

 

 

epsh5.JPG

 

 

 

 

Like you said, much will depend on the pac evolution but it won't need to be the shining star if things can get going better in the atlantic. Both the GEFS and Euro have a decent split flow look and would imply overrunning possibilities in the east. Organized storms can still cut of course but they won't nearly have as easy of a time. Much will depend on hp placement and whether than can be some semblance of a 50/50 feature. Neither of these features will show on long lead ens mean plots. 

 

IMHO- It looks like a pattern change in the atlantic towards something we haven't seen this winter is becoming possible to hopefully likely. If it were to verify in some fashion, it's also the type of pattern that can evolve into a more useful -ao/nao in Feb. I think the biggest net+ to what is being advertised is losing the blue hole over greenland and iceland. We can only hope at this point. At least things aren't bleak.  

 

Good post. If things are going to set up for at least a decent Feb. we don't need everything to line up perfectly but a good looking atlantic will definitely point in the right direction. I still think there will be plenty cold available, we just need to lock it in to get a couple moderate events and perhaps one big storm. Look at today's storm. There is no snow anywhere within 100 miles because the cold escapes before the next front comes in.

[psuhoffman]

It really is depressing looking at long range models and seeing nothing.

I think we need to be a little patient right now.  Expectations of a historic winter obviously are off the table realistically.  But there is still a good shot we get to climo with a good second half.  Right now we are looking at a volatile period as things reload or reshuffle.  I think the models will likely struggle to see clearly beyond this period into the long range when we might have a shot.  There are some reasons to be pessimistic (still not true -NAO signature) but also reasons to be optimistic (reload of the EPO and a must less hostile PNA/AO/NAO combo) for the long range pattern setting up.  The pattern we just came through was a fail in terms of snow because the epo was the only factor in our favor driving the temps.  While it was cold with such a hostile PNA, AO, and NAO any storm was destined to either cut or be sheared apart.  The only hope we had was a clipper and we did manage to cash in with one.  In a way we actually could be considered lucky.  Much of the east got nada out of this cold period.   I am hopeful this next pattern shift works out better for several factors.  The NAO/PNA/AO might not be looking amazing, but all 3 moving towards neutral is a huge improvement over where they were for the last period.  Second, climo alone argues that a cold pattern in the January 25-Feb 10 period is much more likely to work out for our area.  I think the NAO/AO are more and more likely to be favorable, or at least not hostile, as we head later in the season.  In addition as the wavelengths shorten we can score better without an active STJ, which seems to be a lost cause.  I am not saying this pattern coming up is perfect, but its certainly got potential and while it is really difficult to "be patient" in mid january I am willing to wait out the next week and see how things look once we get past the noise of this pattern shift. 

[Bob Chill]

HM, 

 

Question about strat stuff. Euro is advertising an elongated and disturbed pv by d10. Looks like a split @ 50mb as well.

 

GFS in the d10-15 range splits 50 & 30mb and 10mb is pushed all the way over towards russia. Is this type of evolution something that would increase high latitude blocking in the troposphere? It sure looks quite a bit different than what's been going on up there since the beginning of Dec. 

[gymengineer]

I think we need to be a little patient right now.  Expectations of a historic winter obviously are off the table realistically.  But there is still a good shot we get to climo with a good second half.  Right now we are looking at a volatile period as things reload or reshuffle.  I think the models will likely struggle to see clearly beyond this period into the long range when we might have a shot.  There are some reasons to be pessimistic (still not true -NAO signature) but also reasons to be optimistic (reload of the EPO and a must less hostile PNA/AO/NAO combo) for the long range pattern setting up.  The pattern we just came through was a fail in terms of snow because the epo was the only factor in our favor driving the temps.  While it was cold with such a hostile PNA, AO, and NAO any storm was destined to either cut or be sheared apart.  The only hope we had was a clipper and we did manage to cash in with one.  In a way we actually could be considered lucky.  Much of the east got nada out of this cold period.   I am hopeful this next pattern shift works out better for several factors.  The NAO/PNA/AO might not be looking amazing, but all 3 moving towards neutral is a huge improvement over where they were for the last period.  Second, climo alone argues that a cold pattern in the January 25-Feb 10 period is much more likely to work out for our area.  I think the NAO/AO are more and more likely to be favorable, or at least not hostile, as we head later in the season.  In addition as the wavelengths shorten we can score better without an active STJ, which seems to be a lost cause.  I am not saying this pattern coming up is perfect, but its certainly got potential and while it is really difficult to "be patient" in mid january I am willing to wait out the next week and see how things look once we get past the noise of this pattern shift. 

Yes, people emphasize this fact but I think a lot of us forget how big the difference is in snowfall climatology. Just looking at DC's daily record snowfall bears this out--- the records from 1/9 through 1/21 are noticeably lower than the records from 1/22 all the way through 2/25.

 

ETA: There are actually eight daily snowfall records only in the 2-4" range during the 1/9-1/21 period!

[snowfan]

Since this board is very DC centric.....

 

8 of the top 10 storms all-time came after January 26th. 7 of them are in February. Same goes for BWI. If we're still in the same boat come the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February then we're done, but we still have a good 4-5 weeks to play with. 

[Ian]

Since this board is very DC centric.....

 

8 of the top 10 storms all-time came after January 26th. 7 of them are in February. Same goes for BWI. If we're still in the same boat come the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February then we're done, but we still have a good 4-5 weeks to play with. 

We do get our biggest snows in Feb generally speaking. When you look at 1" snow days peak is pretty much like Jan 5 thru Mar 5 though. Jan should in theory be a regular snow producer on the smaller side while Feb is more volatile.  

[gymengineer]

We do get our biggest snows in Feb generally speaking. When you look at 1" snow days peak is pretty much like Jan 5 thru Mar 5 though. Jan should in theory be a regular snow producer on the smaller side while Feb is more volatile.  

I didn't notice until I looked today, but two of the dates in the stretch of January we're in now actually have daily record snowfalls of only 2" (1/14 and 1/16). For records that date back to 1871, that's surprisingly low. 

[snowfan]

Like last year when we had the 1/2, 1/21 and 1/29 snowfalls before the bigger event near Valentine's Day. 

We do get our biggest snows in Feb generally speaking. When you look at 1" snow days peak is pretty much like Jan 5 thru Mar 5 though. Jan should in theory be a regular snow producer on the smaller side while Feb is more volatile.  

[eurojosh]

Hmmm.  Euro did something interesting compared to GFS at hrs 48-72...  

[usedtobe]

I'm mostly interested in the changes in the atlantic. The pac doesn't appear to be heading back to hostility and the warm up is nothing more than a typical 5+/- day kinda deal. What is catching my eye is the look of the atlantic. Still not great but much better than where we've been. 

 

Dec sucked. The composite tells the story in the 2 seconds it takes to look at this. 

 

dech5.JPG

 

Ridiculous low height anomaly over greenland and iceland and a western atlantic ridge from hell was pretty telling. Things like that don't magically vanish. And they didn't in Jan. We just got lucky with the PAC help delivering cold and timing a clipper. 

 

janh5.JPG

 

 

Now we have decent agreement in losing the low height anomaly over greenland and iceland. It's not a -nao of consequence but will definitely have an impact on storm track if it verifies.

 

gefsh5.JPG

 

 

epsh5.JPG

 

 

 

 

Like you said, much will depend on the pac evolution but it won't need to be the shining star if things can get going better in the atlantic. Both the GEFS and Euro have a decent split flow look and would imply overrunning possibilities in the east. Organized storms can still cut of course but they won't nearly have as easy of a time. Much will depend on hp placement and whether than can be some semblance of a 50/50 feature. Neither of these features will show on long lead ens mean plots. 

 

IMHO- It looks like a pattern change in the atlantic towards something we haven't seen this winter is becoming possible to hopefully likely. If it were to verify in some fashion, it's also the type of pattern that can evolve into a more useful -ao/nao in Feb. I think the biggest net+ to what is being advertised is losing the blue hole over greenland and iceland. We can only hope at this point. At least things aren't bleak.  

Bob, the GEFS mean looks a lot better than the euro one as the latter would dump the cold air in the west but both are better than what we've seen.  The trouble is we're now looking at Jan 26 or so for the pattern to get decent providing the models are correct and the GEFS mean forecast of the Ao has been less than spectular.  The correlation has been pretty low which says we need to see the negative AO forecast getting into the 10 day range ot have much confidence in it. 

[HighStakes]

I didn't notice until I looked today, but two of the dates in the stretch of January we're in now actually have daily record snowfalls of only 2" (1/14 and 1/16). For records that date back to 1871, that's surprisingly low. 

When I was looking at snowfalls records a couple years ago I found some really strange patterns that took place in the month of December. I was going to do a post on it at the time but never got around to it. Now I have no idea on the content. I'm sorry I didn't record it because the findings were really interesting if not bizarre.

[HM]

HM, 

 

Question about strat stuff. Euro is advertising an elongated and disturbed pv by d10. Looks like a split @ 50mb as well.

 

GFS in the d10-15 range splits 50 & 30mb and 10mb is pushed all the way over towards russia. Is this type of evolution something that would increase high latitude blocking in the troposphere? It sure looks quite a bit different than what's been going on up there since the beginning of Dec.

So there are two wave sources in the next 2 weeks. In the first week, that Dr. Cohen screw job BK low finally gets removed. The high here contributes to initial warming (in progress) and then possibly the wave 2. The other thing is the return of the Aleutian Low in the Pacific which promotes a strengthening Aleutian High in the stratosphere. This begins the warming over North America for week 2.

The wave activity is actually impressive and the eddy heat flux at 100mb is equally impressive. But the elasticity of the vortex has been something else! Whether it's the sun, a strangely receptive but also destructive wave timing or just simple bad luck remains to be seen.

[Deck Pic]

Not that it is worth anything, but Euro showing an event at day 10.  This warm-up, while real, and a snow killer, is only for a few days, and won't be +20 departures.  Maybe 2-3 days in upper 40s to mid 50s.  We've had winters where we are hitting 60s in peak climo, with no real hope of crawling out.

[Deck Pic]

So there are two wave sources in the next 2 weeks. In the first week, that Dr. Cohen screw job BK low finally gets removed. The high here contributes to initial warming (in progress) and then possibly the wave 2. The other thing is the return of the Aleutian Low in the Pacific which promotes a strengthening Aleutian High in the stratosphere. This begins the warming over North America for week 2.

The wave activity is actually impressive and the eddy heat flux at 100mb is equally impressive. But the elasticity of the vortex has been something else! Whether it's the sun, a strangely receptive but also destructive wave timing or just simple bad luck remains to be seen.

 

I'm pretty sick of hearing about the Barents-Kara sea from Cohen.  I understand it is real, but really exposes a flaw in his research. And it is hardly the only thing that can go wrong.  It is the tip of the iceberg.

[Ji]

Not that it is worth anything, but Euro showing an event at day 10. This warm-up, while real, and a snow killer, is only for a few days, and won't be +20 departures. Maybe 2-3 days in upper 40s to mid 50s. We've had winters where we are hitting 60s in peak climo, with no real hope of crawling out.

what killed this winter was the euro tease of dec 21 storm. Had that storm happened this winter would of been off to a decent start. The lack of tracking anything less than 5 says out has been non existant and depressing. Now we are 10 days away again. We have had worse patterns but the lack of storms to track and lack of Souther jet overall has been dissapointing

[Deck Pic]

Bob, the GEFS mean looks a lot better than the euro one as the latter would dump the cold air in the west but both are better than what we've seen.  The trouble is we're now looking at Jan 26 or so for the pattern to get decent providing the models are correct and the GEFS mean forecast of the Ao has been less than spectular.  The correlation has been pretty low which says we need to see the negative AO forecast getting into the 10 day range ot have much confidence in it. 

 

This is part wishcasting/pollyannaish, but i bet we are tracking something before then...maybe in the 22-25th range...

[Bob Chill]

Not that it is worth anything, but Euro showing an event at day 10.  This warm-up, while real, and a snow killer, is only for a few days, and won't be +20 departures.  Maybe 2-3 days in upper 40s to mid 50s.  We've had winters where we are hitting 60s in peak climo, with no real hope of crawling out.

 

It may be part of the different look we're getting around greenland. Ridge poking in, some confluence in the east, tighter spacing, epo ridge and lead vort heading towards 50/50 location. I didn't look closely at last night's ensemble members but previous runs had some interesting solutions with a storm that was blocked from cutting. 

 

[T. August]

Not that it is worth anything, but Euro showing an event at day 10.  This warm-up, while real, and a snow killer, is only for a few days, and won't be +20 departures.  Maybe 2-3 days in upper 40s to mid 50s.  We've had winters where we are hitting 60s in peak climo, with no real hope of crawling out.

What is that in the Atlantic at hr 222?

 

Lol it's a monster.

[Bob Chill]

So there are two wave sources in the next 2 weeks. In the first week, that Dr. Cohen screw job BK low finally gets removed. The high here contributes to initial warming (in progress) and then possibly the wave 2. The other thing is the return of the Aleutian Low in the Pacific which promotes a strengthening Aleutian High in the stratosphere. This begins the warming over North America for week 2.

The wave activity is actually impressive and the eddy heat flux at 100mb is equally impressive. But the elasticity of the vortex has been something else! Whether it's the sun, a strangely receptive but also destructive wave timing or just simple bad luck remains to be seen.

 

 

It goes back to something that Coastalwx has been saying since the beginning of Dec. "Bend don't break" persistence with the PV. 

 

I suppose it can only be a good thing that it is getting disturbed and beat up a bit at least right? This last cold outbreak seemed to be in response to the temporary split. At least it's active in the strat and not a giant whirlpool from top to bottom sitting over the pole for weeks on end.