Ian Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not really at all worried about a horrifically bad winter at this point. Seems unlikely I'll finish below 10" or something. I see a lot of people acting like a good March is likely though which I dunno about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not really at all worried about a horrifically bad winter at this point. Seems unlikely I'll finish below 10" or something. I see a lot of people acting like a good March is likely though which I dunno about. last time we had a weak NINO fail similar to this year was 79/80 big storm that clipped us early March, but I think that was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 lol another year of disappointments sorry, had to say it....not one of my favorites in the least but since no 2 are the same, we've got that going for us I suppose I was specifically posting about high latitude look. This is no 10-11. We haven't had a meaningful -nao/ao combo since then. No way to know if we are moving towards a stable -ao/nao but you have to start somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 last time we had a weak NINO fail similar to this year was 79/80 big storm that clipped us early March, but I think that was it Honestly don't know much about that winter if anything. I'd be kinda surprised if we get out of Jan with no more snow of note. I do also doubt we're going to run into a lengthy (more than a few weeks or transient repeats) period of a great pattern at this point. I guess it could happen but I'd be among the perplexed.. like always maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Honestly don't know much about that winter if anything. I'd be kinda surprised if we get out of Jan with no more snow of note. I do also doubt we're going to run into a lengthy (more than a few weeks or transient repeats) period of a great pattern at this point. I guess it could happen but I'd be among the perplexed.. like always maybe. I'm not sure what he's talking about.... it was a better winter than 06/07 for sure. 14.7" at BWI which is more than 06/07's total, with snow spread pretty evenly across January, February, and March. Yes, they fringed on the storms that DC got in on, but it still wasn't a dead-ratter type winter. 26.8" at IAD with two 6"+ snowstorms (one in January and one in March), and 20.1" at DCA (6"+ snowstorm in January, 5" storm in early March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I don't know about that DT.... HM just vehemently uncancelled winter on twitter. How do I follow HM on Twittet? Thanks, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's pretty obvious this year that making a definitive call beyond 7 days is risky as heck. Anybody calling for winter cancel or uncancel is at equal odds of blowing it. DT came in here and declared the gefs being total bs and that there is no way the ao is going negative inside of 2 weeks. Now the euro ens mean is showing a -ao along with the gefs. Still no guaranty it will happen but this is one heck of a tough year to figure out 2+ week pattern evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 EC ens also show, after day 11ish, a 50/50 low that seems to want to hang around...Just need to let it play out and get this same look in the 7-10 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not sure what he's talking about.... it was a better winter than 06/07 for sure. 14.7" at BWI which is more than 06/07's total, with snow spread pretty evenly across January, February, and March. Yes, they fringed on the storms that DC got in on, but it still wasn't a dead-ratter type winter. 26.8" at IAD with two 6"+ snowstorms (one in January and one in March), and 20.1" at DCA (6"+ snowstorm in January, 5" storm in early March). I mentioned this year's ENSO similarity to 79/80 and responded to Ian's comment that many were suggesting a big March this year so I through out how we had 1 big storm at the start of 3/80 I did NOT discuss the entire winter or compare it to this one so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I mentioned this year's ENSO similarity to 79/80 and responded to Ian's comment that many were suggesting a big March this year so I through out how we had 1 big storm at the start of 3/80 I did NOT discuss the entire winter Sorry about that-- I thought your phrase "weak Nino fail" meant "winter fail," not "Nino that never got off the ground." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Heh, trying to make a call inside 5 days has been tough.Nah... Things have been really persistent. Torched in December... And then cold and dry... Models supported both periods really well. Accept the euro fail earlier this winter the models have called for little to no snow and that's what we got. This winter has been a peice of cake in terms of medium range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I don't know about that DT.... HM just vehemently uncancelled winter on twitter. How do I follow HM on Twittet? Thanks, Rossi I think it is @antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Sorry about that-- I thought your phrase "weak Nino fail" meant "winter fail," not "Nino that never got off the ground." lol no problem, but gimme' another 10 days because I already started working on a revision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nah... Things have been really persistent. Torched in December... And then cold and dry... Models supported both periods really well. Accept the euro fail earlier this winter the models have called for little to no snow and that's what we got. This winter has been a peice of cake in terms of medium range forecasting. I'm not catching your drift here. Thus far, the individual events that have impacted us have been difficult to model, precisely because they were of the thread-the-needle type and/or borderline. It's easier to lock something in with a good pattern, on the large scale.. I don't know what you're talking about when you say "the euro failed" etc etc. Every model "fails" to some extent..that could mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not catching your drift here. Thus far, the individual events that have impacted us have been difficult to model, precisely because they were of the thread-the-needle type and/or borderline. It's easier to lock something in with a good pattern, on the large scale.. What events are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS has a nice storm for the 24th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS has a nice storm for the 24th-25th. That's not a realistic range... I would not worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm not catching your drift here. Thus far, the individual events that have impacted us have been difficult to model, precisely because they were of the thread-the-needle type and/or borderline. It's easier to lock something in with a good pattern, on the large scale.. I don't know what you're talking about when you say "the euro failed" etc etc. Every model "fails" to some extent..that could mean anything. The event that i am talking about with the euro was the mid late december thing... The euro showed a hit like five runs in a row and then once it got within 120,hours the threat went poof. And if you think about it that's really the only viable threat that the any of the models showed within a decent range. So my original post simply pointed out that it has not been hard at all to make a call inside five days. When all of the models have called for no snow and we have gotten no snow.... No surprises no mistery... Easy to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 saying winter cancel for an area that averages less than or around 20" of snow per season is suspect. 1-2 more snowstorms is all it will take for that cancel to look silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 GFS and Para are basically punting the rest of January. It's unreal how crappy this winter is so far.At this point last year you had a week of winter in Dec, a 2" snow on Jan 2 and that's it....nothing else.This year we had a good snow at Thanksgiving and a 2" snow last week. Was last year a crappy winter at this point? Or were our expectations a bit out of whack for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 At this point last year you had a week of winter in Dec, a 2" snow on Jan 2 and that's it....nothing else. This year we had a good snow at Thanksgiving and a 2" snow last week. Was last year a crappy winter at this point? Or were our expectations a bit out of whack for this year? Our expectations were out of whack...pure and simple...If I went in thinking it would be a disaster this would be much less painful...my own fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Our expectations were out of whack...pure and simple...If I went in thinking it would be a disaster this would be much less painful...my own fault Given that Siberia snow pack there was no reason to think this winter would suck this bad, if you look at the top 5-10 Siberia snow packs in October virtually none had winters even half as bad as this winter has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Given that Siberia snow pack there was no reason to think this winter would suck this bad, if you look at the top 5-10 Siberia snow packs in October virtually none had winters even half as bad as this winter has been Well the optimist in me says it's not over yet... I guess we'll have to see where we are come March 15th..but I've scaled back my expectations to clippers and freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Given that Siberia snow pack there was no reason to think this winter would suck this bad, if you look at the top 5-10 Siberia snow packs in October virtually none had winters even half as bad as this winter has been This makes the argument that the data set is too small, and that the conclusions previously drawn are, at least in part, wrong an easy(ier) one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Given that Siberia snow pack there was no reason to think this winter would suck this bad, if you look at the top 5-10 Siberia snow packs in October virtually none had winters even half as bad as this winter has been Yeah, but until a couple of years ago no one actually looked at any of the Siberian snowpacks to draw conclusions about how the East Coast winter was going to be... It was a much less disappointing time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 This makes the argument that the data set is too small, and that the conclusions previously drawn are, at least in part, wrong an easy(ier) one. It may be, I've come to the conclusion neutral ENSOs or near neutral ENSOs are generally bad for the East Coast, there are exceptions to that but for whatever reason it seems modest forcing in the ENSO region, so long as it's not strong produces better winters, I have long felt the PV tends to not want to undergo changes in neutral ENSOs, so if it gets stuck in a bad regime it stays that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Winter cancel "NOT" then winter cancel. Couple people falling back into some old bad habits of trying to work out confirmations no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 00z GFS at 192 looks... interesting... hopefully some of the precip gets to us before the massive high moves out ETA: and it cuts just as the massive high moves on out on days 8 to 10 GFS from Day 8 to the end of the run shows some potential for us... even though right now it cuts...big arctic shot coming in as well at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 From what I read of HM and LC - looks as if snow will be delayed til Feb in Virginia. And - I'll miss it, I'll be in Texas by then lmao. I'll be there til August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 No question that my expectations were for an epic winter with all of the early indicators pointing that way. I guess we could still score a couple of decent storms in Feb or March to save the winter. But yesterday's runs were showing a dead southern stream basically through the end of January. We all know how a northern dominated pattern works here. Jumpers that basically give us a couple of inches while New England gets smashed. Or the storms just miss us all together. Your right though that my expectations were out of line. At this point last year you had a week of winter in Dec, a 2" snow on Jan 2 and that's it....nothing else. This year we had a good snow at Thanksgiving and a 2" snow last week. Was last year a crappy winter at this point? Or were our expectations a bit out of whack for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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