clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Huh? The pattern on the gfs the last week of January is actually a good one. It's not great for a hecs type storm due to no stj but a small to moderate snow from a northern stream system would be likely in that setup. Just because the model doesn't show a big snow verbatim doesn't make it a bad run. Its not as bad as I made it sound I guess. Just the lack of anything in the southern stream is not very exciting. I guess we could nickle and dime our way to half of average with a few clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Its not as bad as I made it sound I guess. Just the lack of anything in the southern stream is not very exciting. I guess we could nickle and dime our way to half of average with a few clippers. personally, I think you right with your original post when one sees all the "predicted pattern change" posts, it's the sign of a lousy snow winter not that those changes aren't on the computers, but great patterns at 10+ days rarely deliver in a lousy winter, and I believe this qualifies as one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Punting on the rest of winter seems silly. We are bound to have a few small events and probably a bigger area wide snow. Still have a good two months left of snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 personally, I think you right with your original post when one sees all the "predicted pattern change" posts, it's the sign of a lousy snow winter not that those changes aren't on the computers, but great patterns at 10+ days rarely deliver in a lousy winter, and I believe this qualifies as one My best guess is that when we get past the next warm up it will probably get quite cold again but i don't know about how stormy. Most likely still nickel and dime type stuff. That is assuming the warm up doesn't last too long. I still think the stormy part waits for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Punting on the rest of winter seems silly. We are bound to have a few small events and probably a bigger area wide snow. Still have a good two months left of snow season.don't know what he said bu t je is a met and it is his job to make predictions so we'll see if he's right in two months I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Did DT just punt rest of winter over on FB? go look for yourself instead of making assumptions geez!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I did. Why I posted what I did. But also seemed vague so was wondering what others interpretation was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 If the euro shows a cold snowy pattern DT will flip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Definite shift towards the GEFS. It's a decent pattern but still progressive so things will move fast. GEFS is starting to show the shift back to cooler temps a bit sooner. Majority of members show cooler temps working back in by the 21st. The most significant thing about last night's euro ens run it it now shows a -ao developing around the 21st. We'll see if that holds. If it does, it's another case in this pattern where the gefs is outperforming the euro ens. The gefs picked up on the trend to a -ao 2-3 days ago. euro ao1.JPG 12z EURO day 9-10 showing bootlegish ridging over Baffin Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Did DT just punt rest of winter over on FB? Would anyone be worried about what he says at this point . His seasonal forecast blew up. Who cares what he says at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Agreed. He has been wrong all year. Why would anyone care what he thinks at this point. Though I guess the law of averages he will be right eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Would anyone be worried about what he says at this point . His seasonal forecast blew up. Who cares what he says at this point His long range has been terrible so that probably means just the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 1/8-9/15 MJO was the strongest JAN MJO phase 5 on record (back to 1975) and only 2nd to 2/18-21/85 for the strongest phase 5 on record in any DJF. Despite that, 1/8-9/15 was a very cold period in the E US, which is quite interesting considering that phase 5 has been the warmest phase by far overall for at least a decent portion of the E US. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/RMM1RMM2.74toRealtime.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z EURO day 9-10 showing bootlegish ridging over Baffin IslandThankfully we aren't getting a Dec pattern repeat. The relax is just typical stuff and quite brief in the big picture. We are losing the big +nao coming up unless guidance is out to lunch. We may have a period of storm track and type as last jan/feb. Hard to say. I'm not down on the month like many. Eta: when I say lose the big +nao I just mean going neutralish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Thankfully we aren't getting a Dec pattern repeat. The relax is just typical stuff and quite brief in the big picture. We are losing the big +nao coming up unless guidance is out to lunch. We may have a period of storm track and type as last jan/feb. Hard to say. I'm not down on the month like many. I'm not down on the month as whole but I am disappointed that it appears nothing will materialize this week as we still have several days of decent cold to work with starting Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I'm not down on the month as whole but I am disappointed that it appears nothing will materialize this week as we still have several days of decent cold to work with starting Tuesday.Unfortunately the cold pattern were in isn't a good storm pattern. But that's pretty typical. Sucks wasting cold but not uncommon. The more times we get a cold pattern, the better the chances to get things right. Looks like we'll be back around the 23rd. At least we got a cold storm with a week of snowcover out of it.Looks pretty likely to have a bn Jan as well. Much better than back to back an winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unfortunately the cold pattern were in isn't a good storm pattern. But that's pretty typical. Sucks wasting cold but not uncommon. The more times we get a cold pattern, the better the chances to get things right. Looks like we'll be back around the 23rd. At least we got a cold storm with a week of snowcover out of it. We already got more out of this cold pattern than we did the one in 1/09 and, at DCA at least, the first January cold shot of last winter (up through 1/10/14). Dry intense cold happens all the time. I seriously don't see how anyone has enough information right now to categorize this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 DT is just a version of JI who uses a lot more cuss words. I don't usually cancel winter until at least 1/20. Gefs show a good pattern starting at hour 300, agrees with the Baffin Island ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 DT is just a version of JI who uses a lot more cuss words. I don't usually cancel winter until at least 1/20. Gefs show a good pattern starting at hour 300, agrees with the Baffin Island ridge. I made a post a few weeks ago about using that same date before anything can be cancelled. I think the post is in Tenman's Winter Save thread. 1/20 is still over a week away. Plenty time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We already got more out of this cold pattern than we did the one in 1/09 and, at DCA at least, the first January cold shot of last winter (up through 1/10/14). Dry intense cold happens all the time. I seriously don't see how anyone has enough information right now to categorize this entire winter. certainly not in DC metro...I still have no stance on whether we reach climo and probably won't for another couple weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Unfortunately the cold pattern were in isn't a good storm pattern. But that's pretty typical. Sucks wasting cold but not uncommon. The more times we get a cold pattern, the better the chances to get things right. Looks like we'll be back around the 23rd. At least we got a cold storm with a week of snowcover out of it. Looks pretty likely to have a bn Jan as well. Much better than back to back an winter months. 12z EPS broken? It lost the Greenland low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I made a post a few weeks ago about using that same date before anything can be cancelled. I think the post is in Tenman's Winter Save thread. 1/20 is still over a week away. Plenty time left. Personal stats through 1/20 for the last 10 winters IMBY - I realize this has been tough going for other areas, but for me, pretty standard. This winter so far has really been a referendum on the AO/NAO, which is understandable, but ground truth is nothing out of the ordinary. 2004-05: 2.0", Final: 17.0" 2005-06: 6.5", Final: 17.5" 2006-07: 0.0", Final: 13.5" 2007-08: 6.75", Final: 7.0" 2008-09: 0.25", Final: 10.25" 2009-10: 21.5":, Final: 67.5" 2010-11: 4.25", Final: 12.5" 2011-12: 1.75", Final: 2.25" (This includes 1/21) 2012-13: 0.25", Final: 5.0" 2013-14: 4.0", Final: 36.5" 2014-15: 3.5 so far through 1/11, Final: TBD Average through 1/20: 4.7" Seasonal Average: 18.9" Percentage of snow falling after 1/20: 75% Seasonal snow for 2014-15 if climo holds true: Minimum of 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z EPS broken? It lost the Greenland low. Ha! Getting some nice looks after next weekend. It's not broken. Just catching up to the gefs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro ens has some interesting solutions d10-12. Nice -ao/nao/epo look beyond that. Best look at high latitudes since 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro ens has some interesting solutions d10-12. Nice -ao/nao/epo look beyond that. Best look at high latitudes since 2010-11. lol another year of disappointments sorry, had to say it....not one of my favorites in the least but since no 2 are the same, we've got that going for us I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Did DT just punt rest of winter over on FB? I don't know about that DT.... HM just vehemently uncancelled winter on twitter. Most excited I've seen him in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I don't know about that DT.... HM just vehemently uncancelled winter on twitter. Most excited I've seen him in a while best news I've heard all year...literally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I did. Why I posted what I dwas id. But also seemed vague so was wondering what others interpretation was. I know... It obvious you were trying to point out his fb post and drum up conversation about it... Which is cool.. I am gonna go look at fb now... In the mean time... The guy who responded to you was just being ignorant... He knew what you meant. Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The MJO's impact on our pattern in winter is somewhat sporadic, it can go amplified through bad and good phases and have no impact or even have a reverse pattern relative to the norms for that phase. If its weak in a particular phase it can easily have no impact at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Personal stats through 1/20 for the last 10 winters IMBY - I realize this has been tough going for other areas, but for me, pretty standard. This winter so far has really been a referendum on the AO/NAO, which is understandable, but ground truth is nothing out of the ordinary. 2004-05: 2.0", Final: 17.0" 2005-06: 6.5", Final: 17.5" 2006-07: 0.0", Final: 13.5" 2007-08: 6.75", Final: 7.0" 2008-09: 0.25", Final: 10.25" 2009-10: 21.5":, Final: 67.5" 2010-11: 4.25", Final: 12.5" 2011-12: 1.75", Final: 2.25" (This includes 1/21) 2012-13: 0.25", Final: 5.0" 2013-14: 4.0", Final: 36.5" 2014-15: 3.5 so far through 1/11, Final: TBD Average through 1/20: 4.7" Seasonal Average: 18.9" Percentage of snow falling after 1/20: 75% Seasonal snow for 2014-15 if climo holds true: Minimum of 14" Good post. And thanks for keeping good stats. The actual numbers really helps keep things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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