motsco Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nino? humid snow storms? luck of the draw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS has been consistent with a storm around the 24th or 25th. No real NAO or 50/50 low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 i guess the euro didn't look too good. Day 10 was meh... 1043 H just north of MN... but the SLP is in extreme NE AL and will probably beat the cold air coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS has been consistent with a storm around the 24th or 25th. No real NAO or 50/50 low though. Obviously op output is suspect at best at that lead but it coincides with the timing of the gefs for a better pattern after the relax. Euro ens and gefs have similar looks with a strong -epo signal starting around the 22nd or so but differ with the height patterns in the conus after that. Euro is digging lower heights in the sw while the gefs connects the -epo to a +pna. These differences are significant for us and how things evolve as things shift back in our favor. Euro ens aren't nearly as friendly as the gefs. I don't think we're going to torch or anything but a couple days with highs near or above 50 seem likely imo. Next weekend and into the following week look pretty hostile for snow chances but further down the line looks ok. Expectations should be what is typical for a -epo and neutralish ao/nao combo. Big storm pattern remains elusive for now but from what is being advertised, we're getting closer at least. And climo is in our favor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Canadian 10 day temps getting that uglier look http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Day 9 and 10 look somewhat interesting on Euro; anything good or is it Naso good? Do my eyes deceive me, or is that a Miller A storm developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 6z GFS has a storm developing in the Gulf and moving northeast on Thursday /Friday timeframe. Appears to be more wound up than what was shown at 0z and spreads rain as far north as NC before sliding out to sea. I know but it's our only hope this week. Still bears watching imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Good sign on the EC ens, IMO. Looks like they are trending toward the GEFS in the long range. Looking forward to some of the more knowledgable folks chiming in with their thoughts. Could be the evolution of the pattern we have been hoping for all winter....maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Good sign on the EC ens, IMO. Looks like they are trending toward the GEFS in the long range. Looking forward to some of the more knowledgable folks chiming in with their thoughts. Could be the evolution of the pattern we have been hoping for all winter....maybe? Definite shift towards the GEFS. It's a decent pattern but still progressive so things will move fast. GEFS is starting to show the shift back to cooler temps a bit sooner. Majority of members show cooler temps working back in by the 21st. The most significant thing about last night's euro ens run it it now shows a -ao developing around the 21st. We'll see if that holds. If it does, it's another case in this pattern where the gefs is outperforming the euro ens. The gefs picked up on the trend to a -ao 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Definite shift towards the GEFS. It's a decent pattern but still progressive so things will move fast. GEFS is starting to show the shift back to cooler temps a bit sooner. Majority of members show cooler temps working back in by the 21st. The most significant thing about last night's euro ens run it it now shows a -ao developing around the 21st. We'll see if that holds. If it does, it's another case in this pattern where the gefs is outperforming the euro ens. The gefs picked up on the trend to a -ao 2-3 days ago. euro ao1.JPG Why do you think the Euro has been "off" for lack of a better word? Really encouraging trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Why do you think the Euro has been "off" for lack of a better word? Really encouraging trend. This is all anecdotal based on personal obs, but the ec ens appear to have a warm bias in the east during d11-15 in this pattern. Warm bias might no be the best word though. The ensembles may have a similar bias to dig and hold lower heights in the SW and in response, higher heights in the east. I've seen it happen a lot this winter. A lot of ridge/warm looks in the east have either failed completely or became very muted as leads shortened. This most recent cold spell was completely non existent d11-15 on the euro ensembles. GEFS had it first while the euro was advertising a crappy height pattern for the east. Now it looks like the euro is latching onto the GEFS again in the d11+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The new CPC temp map just says it all. If you see snow out in your yard right now go and grab some. It may be a while until it's back again Canadian 10 day temps getting that uglier look http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html While this is all true, it's been discussed for some time now that this very period would feature a relaxation in the flow and warmer temperatures. How long that lasts may be up in the air, but from indications I've seen and reading things from those who are knowledgeable on the subject in here, suggest that it will be on the order of several days. After which, the pattern looks to get more favorable for us as we get into the last week of January. Even hints of a -AO (and possibly -NAO) on the horizon...we can only hope! No reason to hand-wring over something we knew was coming, or think that it's a sign of the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 While this is all true, it's been discussed for some time now that this very period would feature a relaxation in the flow and warmer temperatures. How long that lasts may be up in the air, but from indications I've seen and reading things from those who are knowledgeable on the subject in here, suggest that it will be on the order of several days. After which, the pattern looks to get more favorable for us as we get into the last week of January. Even hints of a -AO (and possibly -NAO) on the horizon...we can only hope! No reason to hand-wring over something we knew was coming, or think that it's a sign of the end. ummm, the 10 day Canadian has been the best predictor of our temps in that range than any other model, and has been for years just ask those "knowledgeable" on the subject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ummm, the 10 day Canadian has been the best predictor of our temps in that range than any other model, and has been for years just ask those "knowledgeable" on the subject Mitch, a very stout -epo ridge is being advertised by the global ens. Any trough in the east will be below normal here regardless of Canada. Unlike Dec, this relaxation appears to be in an out fairly quickly. We'll likely have a 4-5 period that is hostile for snow but see saw temp wise. Beyond that looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 This is all anecdotal based on personal obs, but the ec ens appear to have a warm bias in the east during d11-15 in this pattern. Warm bias might no be the best word though. The ensembles may have a similar bias to dig and hold lower heights in the SW and in response, higher heights in the east. I've seen it happen a lot this winter. A lot of ridge/warm looks in the east have either failed completely or became very muted as leads shortened. This most recent cold spell was completely non existent d11-15 on the euro ensembles. GEFS had it first while the euro was advertising a crappy height pattern for the east. Now it looks like the euro is latching onto the GEFS again in the d11+ range. I've heard about the Euro tending to "dig" a lot more in the southwest US. Didn't realize (or remember!) that the cold spell this past week was nowhere to be seen in the Euro, while the GEFS picked up on it when that was in the medium range. Currently, the GEFS has been pretty consistent showing the pattern looking more favorable...or colder, at least...after about the 22nd. Even the deterministic GFS has been showing this, though of course finer details are all over the map. Bob...on a related side-note, good discussion above where you show the NESIS/ENSO climo and the antecedent "classic" conditions prior to both Miller A and Miller B events. One question I have. While it's clear that a true El Nino hands-down gives us the most NESIS-rated storms in all three winter months, is this current Nino actually being classified as more of a "warm neutral" year? Ironically, that's when Jan-Feb have the minimum of such events climatologically! And kinda funny how March-April have a "spike" in those warm neutral seasons relative to a Nino. Not being critical of your assessment here in any way, but just curious. I honestly have not seen much on the latest state of ENSO or where it's headed. A late bloomer sort of like 2006-07, perhaps? One potentially good thing here (and sorry to p*ss off any Ravens fans, not my intent. I'm in no way a Pats fan myself, not even close!)...but maybe we'll avoid another March snow event bust since the Ravens won't be in the Super Bowl this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Mitch, a very stout -epo ridge is being advertised by the global ens. Any trough in the east will be below normal here regardless of Canada. Unlike Dec, this relaxation appears to be in an out fairly quickly. We'll likely have a 4-5 period that is hostile for snow but see saw temp wise. Beyond that looks pretty good. that Canadian 10 day has been as close to perfect as any model can get this year eventually, it will be wrong, but until it is, I'm riding it it did equally as well last year but I believe the changes you are discussing won't "kick in" until post 10 day so that's not to say that it doesn't agree with the proged -epo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ummm, the 10 day Canadian has been the best predictor of our temps in that range than any other model, and has been for years just ask those "knowledgeable" on the subject I understand that. But I think you missed the point of my post. Which was that that particular period has been known and discussed here for some time as a warmer period with blah flow. That the Canadian is showing it is no real surprise; the GEFS and GFS both show it as well. Some of the posts in here (this thread and others) have gotten very negative because of all that, despite the fact that indications soon after are better. Apologies if I took your post as a sort of hand-wringing over the warmer period that's being projected. ETA: Basically, it's a suckiness that we knew would come, might as well see what's after that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 This is all anecdotal based on personal obs, but the ec ens appear to have a warm bias in the east during d11-15 in this pattern. Warm bias might no be the best word though. The ensembles may have a similar bias to dig and hold lower heights in the SW and in response, higher heights in the east. I've seen it happen a lot this winter. A lot of ridge/warm looks in the east have either failed completely or became very muted as leads shortened. This most recent cold spell was completely non existent d11-15 on the euro ensembles. GEFS had it first while the euro was advertising a crappy height pattern for the east. Now it looks like the euro is latching onto the GEFS again in the d11+ range. The Euro is given huge deference by what I observe on this board and elsewhere. So having the Euro not quite there and seeing the GEFS taking the lead is interesting weather watching for me. It will be fun to read the recap of model performance at the end of the season if the Euro keeps playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro is given huge deference by what I observe on this board and elsewhere. So having the Euro not quite there and seeing the GEFS taking the lead is interesting weather watching for me. It will be fun to read the recap of model performance at the end of the season if the Euro keeps playing catch up. Add to this the official implementation of the major GFS upgrade coming up this week. Will be interesting to see what that does the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 that Canadian 10 day has been as close to perfect as any model can get this year eventually, it will be wrong, but until it is, I'm riding it it did equally as well last year but I believe the changes you are discussing won't "kick in" until post 10 day so that's not to say that it doesn't agree with the proged -epo Ah, we're discussing 2 different things. Ens guidance has an above normal Canada @ 850 through the ends of the runs. Models are advertising us turning back to an aob regime while Canada is still above. This happens a lot in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro is given huge deference by what I observe on this board and elsewhere. So having the Euro not quite there and seeing the GEFS taking the lead is interesting weather watching for me. It will be fun to read the recap of model performance at the end of the season if the Euro keeps playing catch up. Euro ens are a rock through d10 most of the time. The d11-15 seems to be struggling at picking up changing height patterns the last month or so. When the gefs looks noticeably different in that range, the euro has shifted more towards the gefs than vice versa as leads shorten. Another test of this observation is coming up in the next 2 weeks. The last couple euro ens runs have trended towards the gefs. We'll see how it goes over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I understand that. But I think you missed the point of my post. Which was that that particular period has been known and discussed here for some time as a warmer period with blah flow. That the Canadian is showing it is no real surprise; the GEFS and GFS both show it as well. Some of the posts in here (this thread and others) have gotten very negative because of all that, despite the fact that indications soon after are better. Apologies if I took your post as a sort of hand-wringing over the warmer period that's being projected. ETA: Basically, it's a suckiness that we knew would come, might as well see what's after that!! no problem it's what happens when maps are posted w/o additional comment as I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 looking at the gfs 500mb and 700mb maps at 90 hours, seems like something would hit us the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 nah, falls apart and moves to the south this winter is getting close to being a dead ratter things better change by the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS and Para are basically punting the rest of January. It's unreal how crappy this winter is so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Folks, Today's GEFS AO prog continues to progress in the negative direction. For the first time in over 3 weeks, the day 7 mean (for 1/18) has fallen back to 0. Keep in mind that it has had a very good score at day 7, an 85% correlation. Also, the bias at day 7 has been averaging +0.12. That means that the odds would actually favor it even going slightly negative by day 7. Looking at the chart, it could actually go slightly negative as early as day 5. After day 5-7, it looks like it may temporarily rise before heading back down. Day 14 continues with its negative prog at ~-1 though day 14 accuracy has been low. Accuracywise, a key is to get within day 10. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The MJO has finally made it over to phase 6 as progged over the last couple of days after spending the 1st 8 days of the month in phase 5. The model consensus now has it turning sharply left and making its way over to low amp phase 7 by 1/15 and then into low amp phase 8 (either just outside or within the COD) shortly thereafter. This MJO path has generally favored a colder regime overall for much of the E US in January, especially once near or inside the COD in phases 7-8. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml So, at least when looking at these two indices, it is hard to not like the direction in which they're headed. We'll see if this all bodes well for later this month. Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has strong west coast ridging from 1/23 through the end of the run. Edit: Despite being in its warmest January MJO phase, 5 outside of the circle and well outside of it at that, and there being a strong +AO (~+2.6) as well as strong +NAO (+1.8), Atlanta just had its coldest outside of the circle Jan phase 5 day on record on 1/8/15! JAN MJO records go back to 1975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS and Para are basically punting the rest of January. It's unreal how crappy this winter is so far.Huh? The pattern on the gfs the last week of January is actually a good one. It's not great for a hecs type storm due to no stj but a small to moderate snow from a northern stream system would be likely in that setup. Just because the model doesn't show a big snow verbatim doesn't make it a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 nah, falls apart and moves to the south this winter is getting close to being a dead ratter things better change by the end of the month I think we're done for most of January. The pattern may get better the last week, but as far as meaningful snowfall...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Still easily within reach of avg for the month. I'd bet on around that or plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Did DT just punt rest of winter over on FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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