mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Mitch, use instantweathermaps.com. Much faster than ncep. Gfs js trying to turn the second wave into a storm for us. Not there yet but certainly good enough at 5-6 day leads. Vort is looking pretty good. yeah, thanks I gave up on the government a few minutes ago....just their website, to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 heck of a lot of rain on the gfs for Mon/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 transient slightly -NAO by 138 hrs. too http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015011000&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What I'd like to know is, how come it can get so damned COLD, FRIGID cold, so cold I don't even like it (and that is saying tons, I'm the guy who wants another ice age) and then we are in for regular rain with no ice at all in a few days? Tonight, Austin Texas has a Winter Storm Warning for a quarter to half of an inch of ice for krise sake! Even San Antonio!!! Thats sad when you gotta be in south central Texas to get ice in polar front conditions, but we get a serving of plain rain after shivering thru highs in the low 20s, lows in the single numbers with 30 mph wind gusts. I'll never understand it. I've been living in Dale City since 1967 and I STILL don't understand it. This place truly sucks huge goat balls. You know what? I am trapped in this armpit. I will die here someday. I will never get out. And, the day I die, there will have been a week of high temps in the teens with howling 50 mph north winds, then it will mild up - and we will get 3 inches of regular rain with no ice at all in Dale City. Mark my words. It will happen. I was born for rain in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What I'd like to know is, how come it can get so damned COLD, FRIGID cold, so cold I don't even like it (and that is saying tons, I'm the guy who wants another ice age) and then we are in for regular rain with no ice at all in a few days? Tonight, Austin Texas has a Winter Storm Warning for a quarter to half of an inch of ice for krise sake! Even San Antonio!!! Thats sad when you gotta be in south central Texas to get ice in polar front conditions, but we get a serving of plain rain after shivering thru highs in the low 20s, lows in the single numbers with 30 mph wind gusts. I'll never understand it. I've been living in Dale City since 1967 and I STILL don't understand it. This place truly sucks huge goat balls. You know what? I am trapped in this armpit. I will die here someday. I will never get out. And, the day I die, there will have been a week of high temps in the teens with howling 50 mph north winds, then it will mild up - and we will get 3 inches of regular rain with no ice at all in Dale City. Mark my words. It will happen. I was born for rain in winter. Next time try and get it all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What I'd like to know is, how come it can get so damned COLD, FRIGID cold, so cold I don't even like it (and that is saying tons, I'm the guy who wants another ice age) and then we are in for regular rain with no ice at all in a few days? Tonight, Austin Texas has a Winter Storm Warning for a quarter to half of an inch of ice for krise sake! Even San Antonio!!! Thats sad when you gotta be in south central Texas to get ice in polar front conditions, but we get a serving of plain rain after shivering thru highs in the low 20s, lows in the single numbers with 30 mph wind gusts. I'll never understand it. I've been living in Dale City since 1967 and I STILL don't understand it. This place truly sucks huge goat balls. You know what? I am trapped in this armpit. I will die here someday. I will never get out. And, the day I die, there will have been a week of high temps in the teens with howling 50 mph north winds, then it will mild up - and we will get 3 inches of regular rain with no ice at all in Dale City. Mark my words. It will happen. I was born for rain in winter. +AO, +NAO. I'm guessing thats not the answer you are looking for though. Consider moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 +AO, +NAO. I'm guessing thats not the answer you are looking for though. Consider moving? I wish I could. So, I get all excited about my next car top covering of rain. I stay up all night just to get to see the rain accumulate in all of the low places in my lawn. My life is one big lemon. Got to make lemonade lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Take a gander at 6z GFS folks. Cold Rain Paradise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 the 6z GFS paints an interesting picture for weather this week. it shows are a little ice storm Monday morning; a six-hour snowfall on Wednesday; and a wound up storm hugging the coast on Friday. The late week storm actually moves from off the se coast to the NW after which it begins to move NE. That move looked funny to me. Whatever was forcing these storms a couple of days ago to be well off shore and to our southeast is now apparently gone. a call out to any of the Mets on the board could this be a function of the AO and NAO beginning its journey to a more neutral level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looking at these charts, the 10 day correlation is pretty strong with it being at 0.727. However, it falls off a cliff between day 10 and 14. At day 14, it is a mere 0.2782. So, a key would be to get a solid -AO forecast by day 10. As it is now, day 10 is forecasted to drop to near +0.5 by the GEFS mean, which is a significant move in the right direction.The GEFS still suggests the AO will likely plunge into negative territory after about day 10. We'll see. The correlation through day 10 has been good but the day 14 corr. is quite low. Day 10 is still in modest + territory per the mean. The plunge to negative is just afterward but it is getting closer it appears:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO is fcast to get down to a modest positive but not get down to 0 at least through day 14: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Hopefully, CFS2 will be as correct with JAN as it was with DEC....and it keep trending colder each day I'm bumping this because we're almost at the point of the month where the CFS2 stops forecasting for the current month anyway, this is today's forecast for JAN, temp and precip now this obviously includes the numbers for the first 9 days of the month of BN, so the balance of the month should average at least normal or maybe a little BN with this forecast of the entire month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian 10 day temps have switched and now have us a hair above normal, really not by much that is a change; we'll see if it keeps warming http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS pretty close to a decent snowstorrm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS pretty close to a decent snowstorrm. Only a few more days to enjoy its totally wrong forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Only a few more days to enjoy its totally wrong forecasts. It sure has been hanging tough with the idea of a little freezing rain for Monday morning...it will be interesting to see how that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS sticking with some late Tues/early Wed. snow idea this run (12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Did the gfs take a dump at hour 96.... It is not updating on tidbits or ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So that Tuesday night/Wednesday thing.....yeah. Looks pretty good on the GFS actually. Might be time to move these two threats (Monday Morning) to short term talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm missing panels. Is that a quick 6-12 hr thing?Looks like 12 hours of light snow wed... Then a disturbance to our south meandering around for pretty much the entire second half of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So that Tuesday night/Wednesday thing.....yeah. Looks pretty good on the GFS actually. Might be time to move these two threats (Monday Morning) to short term talk. roughly, BWI-.2", DCA-.25" and IAD-.3" qpf all snow verbatim GFS for late Tues night into Monday mid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 So that Tuesday night/Wednesday thing.....yeah. Looks pretty good on the GFS actually. Might be time to move these two threats (Monday Morning) to short term talk. These are the kinds of deals that just sneak up. Simple little gulf moisture overunning cold air deal. It's small and weak and could easily be a no nevermind but encouraging to see it showing in some form nearby on all guidance. Euro kept it just south but it's 4+ days away so just a small shift could give us a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 These are the kinds of deals that just sneak up. Simple little gulf moisture overunning cold air deal. It's small and weak and could easily be a no nevermind but encouraging to see it showing in some form nearby on all guidance. Euro kept it just south but it's 4+ days away so just a small shift could give us a little something. I erroneously posted this over in the short term thread: I'm wondering if the weak energy that is now causing T/W thingy is messing up the F/S hope But I'm always of the mindset to take less if it's closer in time and a higher chance, so I'll take this run and the heck with a fantasy 7-day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 roughly, BWI-.2", DCA-.25" and IAD-.3" qpf all snow verbatim GFS for late Tues night into Monday mid day I'd sign on the dotted line right now for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I erroneously posted this over in the short term thread: I'm wondering if the weak energy that is now causing T/W thingy is messing up the F/S hope But I'm always of the mindset to take less if it's closer in time and a higher chance, so I'll take this run and the heck with a fantasy 7-day storm Without fail, GL Low is there and ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I erroneously posted this over in the short term thread: I'm wondering if the weak energy that is now causing T/W thingy is messing up the F/S hope But I'm always of the mindset to take less if it's closer in time and a higher chance, so I'll take this run and the heck with a fantasy 7-day storm I don't think it's messing up anything. It's not organized. It's nothing more than sw flow aloft running some moisture into a cold hp. Height pattern has been dicey for the later week system the whole time. The interaction with the northern stream vort is unresolved. We'll just have to wait and see on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS gives us no ice and a nice pity storm. GFSP gives us ice and no pity storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Time for the EURO to flex its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 i guess the euro didn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The new CPC temp map just says it all. If you see snow out in your yard right now go and grab some. It may be a while until it's back again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What I'd like to know is, how come it can get so damned COLD, FRIGID cold, so cold I don't even like it (and that is saying tons, I'm the guy who wants another ice age) and then we are in for regular rain with no ice at all in a few days? Tonight, Austin Texas has a Winter Storm Warning for a quarter to half of an inch of ice for krise sake! Even San Antonio!!! Thats sad when you gotta be in south central Texas to get ice in polar front conditions, but we get a serving of plain rain after shivering thru highs in the low 20s, lows in the single numbers with 30 mph wind gusts. I'll never understand it. I've been living in Dale City since 1967 and I STILL don't understand it. This place truly sucks huge goat balls. You know what? I am trapped in this armpit. I will die here someday. I will never get out. And, the day I die, there will have been a week of high temps in the teens with howling 50 mph north winds, then it will mild up - and we will get 3 inches of regular rain with no ice at all in Dale City. Mark my words. It will happen. I was born for rain in winter. Until we can shift the core of the high-latitude blocking towards Greenland & the North Atlantic, we're going to be stuck in this kind of pattern w/ the primary wintry threat coming from overrunning & Miller Bs... Although a -EPO/WPO is certainly helpful in @ least delivering copious amounts of true, arctic air into the east-central US, the one caveat if you have a personal preference for Miller As & snowstorms is the confluent flow that is generated near the base of the subsequent trough that becomes established over the eastern US & southern Canada, which leads to episodic strong highs progressing thru the northern tier & southern Canada. If timed right w/ disturbances in the southern branch this = relatively high probability for ice instead of snow. February is going to be the best shot the US east coast has to crank out a NESIS storm, El Nino Februarys are as good as it gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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