DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The GFS SOLUTION here is just total BULL**** at SOME point the AO many finally go negative... BUT the ECMWF EPS AO is WAAAAAAY positive and it stays there through JAN 25 Is it? Could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 MY warmspell.. the one I have been talking about since mid DEC looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z GFS shows improvement in the storm late next week. Storm slides off the Hatteras area as opposed to the SC coast. The storm above the great Lakes is also moving very quickly away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 DT, except that the EPS have the EPO tanking and sending the cold into the western USA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS para is a close miss late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 DT, except that the EPS have the EPO tanking and sending the cold into the western USA again. I liked seeing the shift on the 12z run not confining it to the west like the last couple runs. It was a shift towards the gefs. Pretty far down the line to dissect but it was an improved run for us eastern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I liked seeing the shift on the 12z run not confining it to the west like the last couple runs. It was a shift towards the gefs. Pretty far down the line to dissect but it was an improved run for us eastern folks. Yeah I think most numerical guidance has been indicating the same idea: warm-up in 6-10 day and then a shift to cold in the West with EPO after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The GFS SOLUTION here is just total BULL**** at SOME point the AO many finally go negative... BUT the ECMWF EPS AO is WAAAAAAY positive and it stays there through JAN 25 The 12z eps run was the first time in at least the last 3-4 that didn't take it neutral or negative. 12z drops to neutral around the 18th or so but never goes over +1sd after that from what I'm seeing. I'm skeptical about going negative because we haven't been there of any consequence since Nov but personally, I'm not all that worried either way. If the epo does in fact push and build higher heights around the pole then we aren't in a shutout pattern. If the GEFS is more right than the eps in the d11-15 range it wouldn't surprise me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah I think most numerical guidance has been indicating the same idea: warm-up in 6-10 day and then a shift to cold in the West with EPO after that... I'm a bit relieved that a "resolution" to the relaxation is coming into focus fairly quickly. I didn't like seeing the goa trough and all those flat isobars @ h5 slamming into the west coast when it first showed up. It took us weeks to shake that kind of deal in Dec. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Several El Niño years and years with similar SST to this year had a much more -AO. We are in the small class of years that go against that, lol. As far as El Niño, you'll recognize some of these which had an elevated AO: 1991-92 1972-73 1982-83 1994-95 2006-07 2004-05 1951-52 Some of these did switch in February....a few did not. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Now I dont know if this is just me..... im not an expert but im still learning. Looking at 500 vorts on both the 12z Euro and the 18z gfs. Looks like both are a step away from a big storm. Could some one chime in on this for me please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'm a bit relieved that a "resolution" to the relaxation is coming into focus fairly quickly. I didn't like seeing the goa trough and all those flat isobars @ h5 slamming into the west coast when it first showed up. It took us weeks to shake that kind of deal in Dec. lol. Yeah! lol...the warm-up with the jet extension/EPO was easy to see. What wasn't as easy to see what the follow-up jet retracting and retrograding, leading to another -EPO. This should prevent a full-blown December outcome again. Obviously, if those two things do not occur, well December repeat is ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah! lol...the warm-up with the jet extension/EPO was easy to see. What wasn't as easy to see what the follow-up jet retracting and retrograding, leading to another -EPO. This should prevent a full-blown December outcome again. Obviously, if those two things do not occur, well December repeat is ahead. Hopefully the atlantic reshuffles a bit. Some hints that the unflappable +nao is going to make a move at least towards neutralish. Ridging keeps showing up over or east of Greenland on the GFS down the line. And the low heights over iceland that have been in place since what feels like the beginning of time may move out. Interesting look for entertainment here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bob, have you noticed that the models are trying to upwell a warm anomaly over N. America into the stratosphere in 2 weeks? The EPO ridge is strong/permanent enough to resonate into the stratosphere. It could possibly signal yet another wave 2. I'm bringing this up to refer back to our conversation earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Bob, have you noticed that the models are trying to upwell a warm anomaly over N. America into the stratosphere in 2 weeks? The EPO ridge is strong/permanent enough to resonate into the stratosphere. It could possibly signal yet another wave 2. I'm bringing this up to refer back to our conversation earlier in the week. I look at strat maps every day but I never post about them. I'm too dumb on the subject. I see what your talking about but I don't really grasp temps as much as height plots. GFS has been set on a very elongated and disturbed vortex late in the runs from 100mb on up for a while. I can imagine that any anomalous and stable ridging in the troposphere pressing poleward from any side is our friend right now. Something has to break and I hope it isn't my hopes and dreams. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Several El Niño years and years with similar SST to this year had a much more -AO. We are in the small class of years that go against that, lol. As far as El Niño, you'll recognize some of these which had an elevated AO: 1991-92 1972-73 1982-83 1994-95 2006-07 2004-05 1951-52 Some of these did switch in February....a few did not. :/ All of the +ENSO years w/ +AO in December & January that didn't flip in February (1992-93, 1972-73, 1991-92, & 1994-95) were all in the cold multidecadal AMO phase. Coincidence? Nope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I KNOW ... DT, except that the EPS have the EPO tanking and sending the cold into the western USA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 FROM WSI JAN 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 All of the +ENSO years w/ +AO in December & January that didn't flip in February (1992-93, 1972-73, 1991-92, & 1994-95) were all in the cold multidecadal AMO phase. Coincidence? Nope... Some would argue we are currently in the process of flipping to a cold phase but I don't see much evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 The GFS SOLUTION here is just total BULL**** at SOME point the AO many finally go negative... BUT the ECMWF EPS AO is WAAAAAAY positive and it stays there through JAN 25 Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you write a lengthy post a while back explaining how the Euro ens completely busted on the forecast for late Dec-early Jan? Why are you so confident that they will be proven correct this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Some would argue we are currently in the process of flipping to a cold phase but I don't see much evidence. It's certainly exceedingly difficult to pin down if we're actually seeing a multidecadal flip because our reliable record only encompasses enough time to observe a few phase shifts and relying on the premise of a 25-30 yr resonance period isn't wise, and there are clearly other factors that play a large role in the AMO. Most notably of which @ least to my knowledge is the ENSO index... On shorter timescales, it's well known that particularly during +ENSO/El Nino events, the AMO responds positively, because an El Nino invigorates the subtropical jet in the Pacific/western hemisphere, which in the Atlantic, feeds back to cooler than normal SSTs in the subtropics... The cooler SSTs also provide a positive feedback on the atmospheric heights, causing them to lower in the subtropics, thus weakening the Azores-Bermuda High and hence the northeasterly trade winds, and it's this reduced wind stress that is imparted onto the tropical Atlantic that leads to a net warming of the deep tropics and a re-establishment of the +AMO signature. It's not just mere happenstance that the mean El Nino Winter 500mb is nearly a carbon copy of the +AMO... AMO DJF 500mb height correlation Top 20 El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb mean height anomaly Essentially ENSO acts as a battery for the AMO, w/ El Ninos recharging the AMO, while La Ninas through enhanced easterly trades, higher tropical cyclone frequency, etc, favor a net discharge, and even over long periods of time, ENSO can dictate the behavior of the AMO even though its own internal variance at least makes it quasi-independent. AMO-MEI Cross Correlation, MEI leads the AMO index by ~10 months The recent lull in Atlantic hurricane activity is unusual for the multidecadal +AMO phase (but not unexpected if one gave the interdecadal ENSO performance a look) and is analogous to the mid-late 1930s when following the record-breaking hurricane season of 1933 (has ~10 more ACE points than 2005), the dearth of El Ninos to recharge the AMO was subsequently followed by relatively quieter hurricane seasons until the Atlantic emerged out the other end of the 1939-42 multi yr El Nino event... Looking at the Atlantic Hurricane ACE activity smoothed over 5 year intervals, it becomes relatively easy to pick out interdecadal trends, and considering the lack of El Ninos in the mid-late 1930s & 1940s, it's not surprising to see the dramatic downturn in Atlantic ACE during this period despite a conducive multidecadal phase. It's plausible to conclude that we've already peaked in this warm phase and the -PDO regime flip in the mid-late 2000s along w/ the shortage of El Ninos, especially w/ the ongoing El Nino drought that has remained since 2009-10 were (& still are) red flags that the AMO was going to falter sooner rather than later. As far as a full-blown regime flip, I'm quite uncertain, but we're still in the warm phase for the moment at least. Thus, I think we'll be hard-pressed to find ourselves in the +AO regime through February, it simply hasn't happened when both the ENSO & AMO indices were positive and the warm water currently off Atlantic Canada is lending a huge clue to the ultimate fate of the AO in February... (i.e. the warmer waters are more akin to the El Ninos that observed the NAM flip in Feb, despite remaining predominantly positive in December & January) BTW, I am very pleased w/ how well my monthly El Nino temperature composites are verifying thus far this month, virtually spot on w/ what one would anticipate in Warm Neutral-Weak El Nino state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Sounds like they will go thru with making para operational on Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nam has a similar period of light snow as gfs early Tuesday through Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nam has a similar period of light snow as gfs early Tuesday through Tuesday night. Meh... more like a rain/snow mix using the p-type radar reflectivity ETA -- though snow maps show otherwise... guess we shall see then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Oh Yoda I'm just being a realist Its what it shows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm just being a realist Its what it shows though It was just a funny post. I think mitchnick usually looks at forecast soundings etc. I havent even checked it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z GFS holds onto frozen for DCA until around 7AM... N MD holds on till around 9/10 AM and then its all washed away in rain... probably will get a token FZRA Adv Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The euro showed a long drawn out period of precip a few days back before there was clarity on how the energy would eject. It's certainly possible to have an additional piece in between the 2 more prominent waves. It won't be organized or significant but nobody would complain about a sneaky dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 gfs is stuck on ncep I guess somebody mistakenly pulled the plug too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Mitch, use instantweathermaps.com. Much faster than ncep. Gfs js trying to turn the second wave into a storm for us. Not there yet but certainly good enough at 5-6 day leads. Vort is looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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