Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like Euro on this run is a tad too far east for our liking? My bar is set at like 1-2" if we get anything You do realize that it is Friday and the potential window is next Wednesday to Friday...Have the models recently become skilled in the day 5-7 range, and I was just unaware of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS continues to be a good bit colder for the tues./weds. period next week. Doesn't look like it would take much to develop a decent storm on Thursday on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like Euro on this run is a tad too far east for our liking? My bar is set at like 1-2" if we get anything Why would you take this approach a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Its about time for the Euro to throw a superbomb solution out there for next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The consensus -AO/NAO by end of December, early January looks like a bust....as far as ground truth, a number of people had the idea that December would be a meh month. Of course it ended up warmer than most would have predicted. And most people went for a cold January which is coming to fruition so far, though it is early....And most have been right about the EPO/PNA which has been solidly -/+....The main consensus bust has been the Atlantic and that has been where all the focus is, and rightly so....But as far as most of the long range ideas I have seen, it has been a mixed bag.... true, good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 true, good points. I think people get too cocky and competitive about the long range stuff..maybe me too....getting too specific is dangerous....Personally, I really have no stance yet on whether we will reach climo snow...though some huge snow year seems pretty unlikely at this point...as you know, we're still pretty early in the season for us...and our climo sucks so bad anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Why would you take this approach a week away. I am trying to temper my expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like Euro on this run is a tad too far east for our liking? My bar is set at like 1-2" if we get anything Why would you take this approach a week away. I think we are in a situation that is good and bad...the pattern overall is pretty neutral at this point in terms of snow, but we are nearing a climo window where even here is crappy DC we can accidentally fall backward into an accumulating snowfall...Other than January 2006 which was a +8, I believe we have had a 1"+ event here in immediate DC during the January 15-31 period every winter since the late 90s....and some of those periods were crappy...Our good climo period in DC is only like 5-6 weeks, but during that period, we're actually pretty good at getting snow events. I think in terms of models as we enter Mid January, we shouldn't worry too much outside of 3-4 days...crappy looking model runs may actually yield something and good looking runs could easily crap out... Late next week we are in some weird transition period, but in the means we will have a -EPO, +PNA, and a vortex to our NW which can be good and bad....We should also get some troughing in the east...I wouldn't punt that window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Have any long range ideas been right this winter yet? Sure. Probably due to random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think we are in a situation that is good and bad...the pattern overall is pretty neutral at this point in terms of snow, but we are nearing a climo window where even here is crappy DC we can accidentally fall backward into an accumulating snowfall...Other than January 2006 which was a +8, I believe we have had a 1"+ event here in immediate DC during the January 15-31 period every winter since the late 90s....and some of those periods were crappy...Our good climo period in DC is only like 5-6 weeks, but during that period, we're actually pretty good at getting snow events. I think in terms of models as we enter Mid January, we shouldn't worry too much outside of 3-4 days...crappy looking model runs may actually yield something and good looking runs could easily crap out... Late next week we are in some weird transition period, but in the means we will have a -EPO, +PNA, and a vortex to our NW which can be good and bad....We should also get some troughing in the east...I wouldn't punt that window... I think next Thursday is as good a chance as there's been this year. I look at next week as being the last shot with house money. Any threats that don't materialize after the 15th begin to sting even though my window extends a couple weeks past yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it? Could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think next Thursday is as good a chance as there's been this year. I look at next week as being the last shot with house money. Any threats that don't materialize after the 15th begin to sting even though my window extends a couple weeks past yours. It looks like we warm for 2-4 days after that, but who knows for sure?..though the signal is pretty stromg...could just be 45-55 and not the depressing +20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it? Could it? And that's the 6z GEFS run. 12z is even tastier. Spread is unusually narrow for long leads as well. All global ensembles take it neutral or negative in the next 2 weeks. Unless it doesn't happen, it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it? Could it? the problem that I see is that the 7 day forecasts look pretty good but the 10 and 14 day forecasts are notoriously too low iow the AO is verifying higher than proged by those 2 forecast periods hence, if that continues the 7 day forecast is going to verify and the AO does not go negative but hovers around +1.....which is better than where it's been, but nothing that great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 the problem that I see is that the 7 day forecasts look pretty good but the 10 and 14 day forecasts are notoriously too low iow the AO is verifying higher than proged by those 2 forecast periods hence, if that continues the 7 day forecast is going to verify and the AO does not go negative but hovers around +1.....which is better than where it's been, but nothing that great Don't worry about that. The longer range always misses the big moves. in both directions. Look at Oct-Nov. It's been verifying higher because it's spiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The two-week forecast seems to hover around zero, which is likely the model's climatology. We have to take this one week at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro ens fairly supportive of a frozen event second half of next week. Mean track is a bit too east for our liking but members are spread out all over. Pretty good signal for frozen in the the nc piedmont and central/southern VA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro ens fairly supportive of a frozen event second half of next week. Mean track is a bit too east for our liking but members are spread out all over. Pretty good signal for frozen in the the nc piedmont and central/southern VA as well. Yep. The mean (weatherbell)snow amount is over 2" for most of the DC region, points north and west, and even down to Richmond. Some good runs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is it? Could it? Looking at these charts, the 10 day correlation is pretty strong with it being at 0.727. However, it falls off a cliff between day 10 and 14. At day 14, it is a mere 0.2782. So, a key would be to get a solid -AO forecast by day 10. As it is now, day 10 is forecasted to drop to near +0.5 by the GEFS mean, which is a significant move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Don't worry about that. The longer range always misses the big moves. in both directions. Look at Oct-Nov. It's been verifying higher because it's spiking. 7 day forecast is pretty darn good on the entire graph Bob when that shows it going negative, then I'll do my Jebwalk naked across the street until then, prudidity rules over nudity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 7 day forecast is pretty darn good on the entire graph Bob when that shows it going negative, then I'll do my Jebwalk naked across the street until then, prudidity rules over nudity Considering how it's gone in that dept since dec 1st, I might wait until a 7 minute forecast. Kinda hard to ignore for right now though. Euro ens made a notable step towards the GEFS. Not nearly as warm as last nights. Relax is a lock but things come back together fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z NAM gives a couple hours of ZR to most of the area, everyone changes to rain by 11:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Considering how it's gone in that dept since dec 1st, I might wait until a 7 minute forecast. Kinda hard to ignore for right now though. Euro ens made a notable step towards the GEFS. Not nearly as warm as last nights. Relax is a lock but things come back together fairly quickly. good to hearreally, since last year, the gefs have done much better than the euro ensembles imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 good to hear really, since last year, the gefs have done much better than the euro ensembles imho Agreed. They have done really well in the d11+ range considering how tough it is to get it right. Seems like every large scale pattern shift lately appears on the gefs first. Gefs can be jumpy sometimes moreso than the euro ens but it's a great tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Cobb output shows freezing rain amounts of .13 for BWI, .09 for IAD and .07 for DCA. Basically, not even really worth tracking anymore. 18z NAM gives a couple hours of ZR to most of the area, everyone changes to rain by 11:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The potential late next week reminds me a lot of how the euro and its ens reeled us in for the the "storm that never was" in Dec. Old gfs said No and so did the para but the euro and it's ens were steadfast. As soon as the euro backed off, the para came on board and dangled the carrot for another 24hrs. IMO, the euro ens are continuing the backpedaling that started with the 00z run yesterday. The mean has steadily decreased across the region and the 12z control couldn't even throw us a bone this run. A lot of weather to figure out before next Fri and things could change but I feel like this path is worn. Just my 2 Lincolns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yep. The mean (weatherbell)snow amount is over 2" for most of the DC region, points north and west, and even down to Richmond. Some good runs in there.Eh the track and strength is meh. Members making for a big light precip area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z GFS putting down some snow Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 18z has a minor snow event for early Wed. Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 thats when MJO moves into phase 7 GEFS keep trending better after the relax. We can probably expect an uneventful 4-6 day period next week. GEFS is really likes the idea of pumping the -epo ridge up (and even a touch of -ao) down the line and dumping cold back in our neck. This is a good look and possibly some sort of threat around the 23-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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