SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 central WV (38.5, -80) gets ~0.3" of precip from late week storm. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z GFS advertising some light icing early Monday before everyone goes to rain by about 14z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z GFS advertising some light icing early Monday before everyone goes to rain by about 14z Amazing consistency when its not wintry precip from the models..they don't seem to budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If we want a more wintry solution for Monday, we need that northern stream low/shortwave to move through faster and bring in the high from the Midwest that much faster. Right now it looks like the northern stream passes by as the southern stream arrives and that prevents any real CAD from developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like 12z GFS is going to be too far east once again for late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like 12z GFS is going to be too far east once again for late next week Looks closer to the Euro/EPS than the last few runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS has BWI going above freezing for only 3-6 hour readings on current run thru 168hrs......all during the rain on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z GGEM has returned back to the ice storm solution for just N and W of I-95 Monday morning before the change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If we want a more wintry solution for Monday, we need that northern stream low/shortwave to move through faster and bring in the high from the Midwest that much faster. Right now it looks like the northern stream passes by as the southern stream arrives and that prevents any real CAD from developing. Seems pretty locked in that we quickly jump above freezing shortly after 7am or so. With such agreement in a notsogreat cad setup I think the only wildcard is how much precip can get in here before the inevitable flip. .10 could cause some problems but temps will be in the upper 20's to near freezing and the roads have all been treated recently. I don't see much chance for an impact event. Agree about the gfs for the next system. Definite move towards the euro. My wag is that it won't be so easy to shunt it south and OTS like the gfs keeps insisting on so I'm fairly confident we see some precip out of it. What kind is anyone's guess. Maybe all kinds. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 heh, nice shift on the para. Jumps the primary from KY to off the nc/sc coast and rides it up. Midlevels survive and we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 heh, nice shift on the para. Jumps the primary from KY to off the nc/sc coast and rides it up. Midlevels survive and we get snow. About an 8 hr snowfall But nice to see nevertheless ETA: GGEM wants no part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Seems pretty locked in that we quickly jump above freezing shortly after 7am or so. With such agreement in a notsogreat cad setup I think the only wildcard is how much precip can get in here before the inevitable flip. .10 could cause some problems but temps will be in the upper 20's to near freezing and the roads have all been treated recently. I don't see much chance for an impact event. Agree about the gfs for the next system. Definite move towards the euro. My wag is that it won't be so easy to shunt it south and OTS like the gfs keeps insisting on so I'm fairly confident we see some precip out of it. What kind is anyone's guess. Maybe all kinds. lol 6Z runs were showing 10 am for the 'burbs, so I'm not sure it's actually all that locked in. It's definitely not a great CAD setup, but 3 days out is awfully far away to be nailing down changeover times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 heh, nice shift on the para. Jumps the primary from KY to off the nc/sc coast and rides it up. Midlevels survive and we get snow. Yeah, it's snow, but I suspect mostly because the antecedent airmass is colder. Seeing a low tracking through southern Ontario at the same time makes me a bit nervous. But I'll take it. It's not a MECS set up, but certainly has potential for a widespread advisory or maybe even low-end warning scenario. One certain thing is that it won't stick around for a week like this snow will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 6Z runs were showing 10 am for the 'burbs, so I'm not sure it's actually all that locked in. It's definitely not a great CAD setup, but 3 days out is awfully far away to be nailing down changeover times. True. I still don't see much of a street impact in our area either way. Trees might look pretty for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah, it's snow, but I suspect mostly because the antecedent airmass is colder. Seeing a low tracking through southern Ontario at the same time makes me a bit nervous. But I'll take it. It's not a MECS set up, but certainly has potential for a widespread advisory or maybe even low-end warning scenario. One certain thing is that it won't stick around for a week like this snow will. The low up in Canada was much weaker this run and had little if any interaction with the southern vort. Much more amplification in front than the older brother. Euro may tease us shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 UKIE "looks" interesting enough at 144 with the ridge and trough placement... but the only SLP I see is down in FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 True. I still don't see much of a street impact in our area either way. Trees might look pretty for a time. This might be the rare case, like 1/10/14, where we don't get much tree glaze but sidewalks and neighborhood streets are slippery... just because of how cold the ground will be leading up to it. I agree-- low overall impact. IAD data from the days before the ice events last winter (hi/lo/precip) 12/5-9/13- Tree glaze ice 5 69 54 T 6 65 38 0.97 7 42 31 0.19 8 31 26 0.77 9 34 30 0.43 1/6-10/14- sidewalk, side street glaze 6 44 11 0.08 7 18 1 0.00 8 26 5 0.00 9 37 24 0.00 10 35 29 0.53 2/1-5/14- tree glaze ice/major ice storm in northern MD 1 49 22 0.00 2 61 26 0.00 3 45 29 1.33 4 34 25 0.01 5 41 29 0.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 fully agree with this. 30 degree ice events here are usually not big problems for the roads if it has been warm the previous days. But they can have a decent impact if it has been cold for a long period leading up to the event. This might be the rare case, like 1/10/14, where we don't get much tree glaze but sidewalks and neighborhood streets are slippery... just because of how cold the ground will be leading up to it. I agree-- low overall impact. IAD data from the days before the ice events last winter (hi/lo/precip) 12/5-9/13- Tree glaze ice 5 69 54 T 6 65 38 0.97 7 42 31 0.19 8 31 26 0.77 9 34 30 0.43 1/6-10/14- sidewalk, side street glaze 6 44 11 0.08 7 18 1 0.00 8 26 5 0.00 9 37 24 0.00 10 35 29 0.53 2/1-5/14- tree glaze ice/major ice storm in northern MD 1 49 22 0.00 2 61 26 0.00 3 45 29 1.33 4 34 25 0.01 5 41 29 0.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GEFS keep trending better after the relax. We can probably expect an uneventful 4-6 day period next week. GEFS is really likes the idea of pumping the -epo ridge up (and even a touch of -ao) down the line and dumping cold back in our neck. This is a good look and possibly some sort of threat around the 23-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GEFS keep trending better after the relax. We can probably expect an uneventful 4-6 day period next week. GEFS is really likes the idea of pumping the -epo ridge up (and even a touch of -ao) down the line and dumping cold back in our neck. This is a good look and possibly some sort of threat late next week to. Looks something like we had last year. Doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks something like we had last year. Doesn't look too bad. I edited my post about late next week. I mean around the 23-25th. Heights look decent before this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Been keeping somewhat of a watchful eye on the period after the pattern relaxes (which is hopefully only a few days!). The GEFS has been really fairly consistent on this trend as you show in the spaghetti plots and the mean for a little while now. Good to see this. Hopefully that will be real, and hope that the hints of a -AO (and even -NAO?) are as well. I think even the deterministic GFS in its later forecast projections has been looking better in general from run to run. As always, we'll see. GEFS keep trending better after the relax. We can probably expect an uneventful 4-6 day period next week. GEFS is really likes the idea of pumping the -epo ridge up (and even a touch of -ao) down the line and dumping cold back in our neck. This is a good look and possibly some sort of threat around the 23-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does the EURO show anything worthwhile Monday morning? Or should I just go ahead and look toward the end of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does the EURO show anything worthwhile Monday morning? Or should I just go ahead and look toward the end of the week? DC stays dry until after temps go above freezing. Very light swath of .02-.05 further n-w by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z NAM gives more ice/sleet than the Euro, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does the EURO show anything worthwhile Monday morning? Or should I just go ahead and look toward the end of the week? I'd be curious if the Euro is "reviving" the end of week event, or if it's "meh" like the GFS has been showing lately. I'm about reserved at this point that Monday won't be anything much to think about though some areas could have issues with the ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Have any long range ideas been right this winter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'd be curious if the Euro is "reviving" the end of week event, or if it's "meh" like the GFS has been showing lately. I'm about reserved at this point that Monday won't be anything much to think about though some areas could have issues with the ice potential. The January 14-16 period is definitely still on the table for an event of some sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The January 14-16 period is definitely still on the table for an event of some sort Looks like Euro on this run is a tad too far east for our liking? My bar is set at like 1-2" if we get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Have any long range ideas been right this winter yet? The consensus -AO/NAO by end of December, early January looks like a bust....as far as ground truth, a number of people had the idea that December would be a meh month. Of course it ended up warmer than most would have predicted. And most people went for a cold January which is coming to fruition so far, though it is early....And most have been right about the EPO/PNA which has been solidly -/+....The main consensus bust has been the Atlantic and that has been where all the focus is, and rightly so....But as far as most of the long range ideas I have seen, it has been a mixed bag.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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