WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 A March '93 would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'm indifferent on snow come March. It's nice, but at that point I'm ready for it to be nice. We have to capitalize on January - February. Especially that 4 week stretch mid-Jan thru mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This year was really tough because we didn't know if an El Niño was even going to develop yet back in October, hell, I'm still not really sure it has developed. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2892 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'm indifferent on snow come March. It's nice, but at that point I'm ready for it to be nice. We have to capitalize on January - February. Especially that 4 week stretch mid-Jan thru mid-Feb. Dude...This is DC, you can't really discriminate when it comes to snow. At least not so enthusiastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This year was really tough because we didn't know if an El Niño was even going to develop yet back in October, hell, I'm still not really sure it has developed. ahhh.....no (no where near 5 tri-monthlies this season) Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 17DEC2014 22.9 0.1 26.0 0.8 27.4 0.8 29.4 1.0 24DEC2014 23.1-0.2 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC2014 23.6 0.0 25.9 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 the nino crapping out probably hurt us more then anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z NAM at the end of its run (aka weenie part) suggests ice Monday morning with decent CAD and looks like its being reinforced by the Plains H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Visuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 NAM keeps BWI and IAD below freezing thru the entire 84h period. Looking more like tomorrow might not get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z NAM at the end of its run (aka weenie part) suggests ice Monday morning with decent CAD and looks like its being reinforced by the Plains H I was wondering if one high can reinforce another. Deltadog03 mentions a meso-high developing and refrigerating in SE thread...never heard that term before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Not a ton of precip into the area by the end of the NAM run. Cobb output shows .3" of freezing rain for Roanoke before they bump above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS refuses to show much frozen... pretty much cold rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The problem with the NAM solution verbatim is that, even though there is weak damming signal at the end of the run, the winds over the DC area at F84 are southerly. So you can get a little ice at the start, but there is no way to keep the wedge locked in too much beyond that. Still time for change…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The problem with the NAM solution verbatim is that, even though there is weak damming signal at the end of the run, the winds over the DC area at F84 are southerly. So you can get a little ice at the start, but there is no way to keep the wedge locked in too much beyond that. Still time for change…. True... still wondering why the GGEM is constantly beating its own drum of a major ice storm. Any frozen precip we can get before having cold rain is fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So hard to believe with that high pushing down and the moisture flowing up we don't get frozen. Seems like it would be an excellent over running frozen situation. But I guess it just might be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So hard to believe with that high pushing down and the moisture flowing up we don't get frozen. Seems like it would be an excellent over running frozen situation. But I guess it just might be so. I don't have the time I used to to analyze things, and its probably healthier for me that I don't, but from the quick glace at guidance I am not sure why everyone keeps saying "with a high in the perfect spot". Just what I saw from a quick look, there is a trough of low pressure up the east coast and a massive high way back over North Dakota. The problem is with the trough axis west of our location that wont affect the wind direction and is thus useless for CAD. If that High were east of the trough axis over Montreal, per say, then it would be the perfect set up for CAD. Even if it was simply closer over Michigan it might force things south a bit but all it can do way back there is as it presses it will shift the whole mess of a storm east and out. It is coming in behind the storm, not locked in ahead of it. With the NAO raging positive even if it was further east it would probably just slide out, but at least we would start as ice for a while. Maybe I am reading this whole thing wrong, like I said I only took a quick look, but that is what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 the problem is that the big cold air mass over the northern plains is too slow to get to us. The NAM and GFS have light south winds at 84 hours, not the north/northeast winds we would require for a prolonged ice event. Still time for that northern plains high to speed up or the moisture to slow down, and even if it doesn't, we're likely to see *some* ice early Monday. So hard to believe with that high pushing down and the moisture flowing up we don't get frozen. Seems like it would be an excellent over running frozen situation. But I guess it just might be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS looks close for late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Basically banter but GFS has a KU day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z Euro Op+Ens look good for the N+W crew on the 15th... GFS Op+Ens are close, but gets organized too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z Euro Op+Ens look good for the N+W crew on the 15th... GFS Op+Ens are close, but gets organized too far east. actually, the column looks isothermal at BWI and it would be snow verbatim on operational EC THU 06Z 15-JAN -0.9 -0.5 1024 86 96 0.01 558 540 THU 12Z 15-JAN -0.2 -0.4 1020 92 96 0.06 556 541 THU 18Z 15-JAN 0.9 -0.3 1015 93 99 0.22 552 540 FRI 00Z 16-JAN -0.1 -1.1 1011 93 97 0.37 546 537 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2.3 -2.5 1008 92 61 0.03 544 537 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) THU 06Z 15-JAN -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -12 -22 THU 12Z 15-JAN 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -12 -21 THU 18Z 15-JAN 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -12 -21 FRI 00Z 16-JAN 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -15 -24 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -13 -22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 actually, the column looks isothermal at BWI and it would be snow verbatim on operational EC THU 06Z 15-JAN -0.9 -0.5 1024 86 96 0.01 558 540 THU 12Z 15-JAN -0.2 -0.4 1020 92 96 0.06 556 541 THU 18Z 15-JAN 0.9 -0.3 1015 93 99 0.22 552 540 FRI 00Z 16-JAN -0.1 -1.1 1011 93 97 0.37 546 537 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2.3 -2.5 1008 92 61 0.03 544 537 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) THU 06Z 15-JAN -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -12 -22 THU 12Z 15-JAN 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -12 -21 THU 18Z 15-JAN 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -12 -21 FRI 00Z 16-JAN 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -15 -24 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -13 -22 same numbers at both IAD and DCA, with DXA a hair warmer and IAD a hair cooler, but snow (wet at DCA at 18Z Thursday and the warmest period) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z Euro Op+Ens look good for the N+W crew on the 15th... GFS Op+Ens are close, but gets organized too far east. which are you more inclined to think has the better handle on the situation? tough call I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Basically banter but GFS has a KU day 15.I've been thinking late jan into early feb is the time to watch for a while. Mostly just a gut feeling but I don't think this year is going to be a total disaster where dc and Balt end up under 10". Doesn't have that feel to me. That said if we are gonna score jan 20-feb 10 seems to be when it happens most often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 6z Para has a somewhat different look with the 15th storm moving further up the coast but still offshore. Might be a fun storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 which are you more inclined to think has the better handle on the situation? tough call I know. Given recent verifications on the storms we've been getting (weaker, less-organized lows), I would be more inclined to lean towards the GFS Ens vs. the Euro Ens, but I wouldn't buy into the GFS Op solutions. Who knows... maybe it's the Euro's time to score the better sensible weather verifications in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 actually, the column looks isothermal at BWI and it would be snow verbatim on operational EC THU 06Z 15-JAN -0.9 -0.5 1024 86 96 0.01 558 540 THU 12Z 15-JAN -0.2 -0.4 1020 92 96 0.06 556 541 THU 18Z 15-JAN 0.9 -0.3 1015 93 99 0.22 552 540 FRI 00Z 16-JAN -0.1 -1.1 1011 93 97 0.37 546 537 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2.3 -2.5 1008 92 61 0.03 544 537 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB MB (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) (C) THU 06Z 15-JAN -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -12 -22 THU 12Z 15-JAN 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -12 -21 THU 18Z 15-JAN 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -12 -21 FRI 00Z 16-JAN 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -15 -24 FRI 06Z 16-JAN -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -13 -22 Can I ask you which service you are using to get output like this? Even a novice like myself can make sense of this model output. Is this from an Accuweather Pro subscription? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 same numbers at both IAD and DCA, with DXA a hair warmer and IAD a hair cooler, but snow (wet at DCA at 18Z Thursday and the warmest period) Just curious, can't check Euro on my work computer. How far west does the precip make it on the op Euro? Central WV? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I understand that.. I guess my point is that seasonal forecasts are largely based on assumptions that a host of indices (NAO, QVC, El Nada, etc) work out a certain way.. far too many things have to come together IMO I agree that LR forcing has a lot of noise with signals changing for what matters year to year. Throw in a lot of people make things too linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 central WV (38.5, -80) gets ~0.2" of precip from late week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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