AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There are probably some really small dumb ass things that control the AO and NAO that we don't realize, it may be even be something related to what occurs in the summer and fall weather. Who knows, for all we know its possible the typhoon botched this winter, its entirely possible the whole chain of events that set off something mucked with the PV and AO. forcing. Good point about the typhoon, that's entirely possible for sure. The way the atmosphere reacted afterwards was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There are probably some really small dumb ass things that control the AO and NAO that we don't realize, it may be even be something related to what occurs in the summer and fall weather. Who knows, for all we know its possible the typhoon botched this winter, its entirely possible the whole chain of events that set off something mucked with the PV and AO. forcing. First line made me laugh. The only person who can really explain what happened is the one who called for no blocking, mundane temps, and very little snow back in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 our beloved HM's latest tweet :-\ https://twitter.com/antmasiello best tweet of the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 best tweet of the year so far He's not the only one calling for a early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 He's not the only one calling for a early spring. Not sure that's what he said but obv not what we 'want.' I love a good bust.. I'm close to rooting that the clipper was our event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 First line made me laugh. The only person who can really explain what happened is the one who called for no blocking, mundane temps, and very little snow back in the fall. Were there any people who did that? Legit Mets anyway? I don't recall seeing one...one person in the NYC forum I think did predict 6 inches of snow total for the winter and got laughed at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Not sure that's what he said but obv not what we 'want.' I love a good bust.. I'm close to rooting that the clipper was our event of the year. With a pattern like that might as well call it an early spring...I'm sure we'll get something else before March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Were there any people who did that? Legit Mets anyway? I don't recall seeing one...one person in the NYC forum I think did predict 6 inches of snow total for the winter and got laughed at. That was my point. Whatever "it" is was missed by everyone. The nao has been a stubborn beast since 2010-11. Maybe it's cyclical. I can live without a big -nao. It's hard to live this far south without a -ao though. We really need that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 There are probably some really small dumb ass things that control the AO and NAO that we don't realize, it may be even be something related to what occurs in the summer and fall weather. Who knows, for all we know its possible the typhoon botched this winter, its entirely possible the whole chain of events that set off something mucked with the PV and AO. forcing. The butterfly effect.....the horror. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That was my point. Whatever "it" is was missed by everyone. The nao has been a stubborn beast since 2010-11. Maybe it's cyclical. I can live without a big -nao. It's hard to live this far south without a -ao though. We really need that here. I posted in NYC yesterday this may be the most sustained positive NAO period in winter since somewhere in the 86-93 period...even from 96-00 we had sustained periods of -NAO...we've had hardly any in 11-12, 12-13, 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 our beloved HM's latest tweet :-\ https://twitter.com/antmasiello I take it he means a +PNA there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro weeklies show lowest heights in the conus out west for weeks 3-4. Some hints of a -ao (might just be an extension of the -epo depending on how you look at it) and the nao keeps doing it's thing. Maybe a weak -nao signal by day 30. lol. It's not tragic because the -epo stays intact but far from the promised land I was promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm also a qbo skeptic and have noted that there have been big negative QBO years with a strongly negative QBO. Also, I've actaully seen papers that tout a negative QBP as being conducive to a negative AO. There is too small a data set to know it's impact. I'm with you there regarding the QBO as a scapegoat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 FWIW the December Analogs from Tropical Tidbits are not discouraging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Good point about the typhoon, that's entirely possible for sure. The way the atmosphere reacted afterwards was interesting. It was already in EPO-mode beforehand by an anticyclone break that no one cared about. The typhoon was a product of the tropical-forcing that wasn't quite Nino-like and the Pac circulation it produced...just like now...no typhoon this time but still ridiculously cold. The typhoon stole the show but it wasn't as important as you are making it out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cohen's forecast of warmer than normal temps last year busted, his AO - SHMAO dance he's doing now is with the hope that things some how change for him to save face. He doesn't have one scientific fact that he can rely on for the AO to go negative in FEB, unless you count a wing and a prayer as mass and electromagnetic energy. Sorry bub, step aside for the next, newest sealing wax salesman to appear (sorry Mick/Keith). Got to love forecasts based off of forecasts.. I'm still waiting for forecasters and models to get day 5 correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 best tweet of the year so far lol He's not the only one calling for a early spring. I'm not calling for an early spring, esp. in the Mid Atlantic. it was strictly about the new monthly ECMWF forecasts. Not sure that's what he said but obv not what we 'want.' I love a good bust.. I'm close to rooting that the clipper was our event of the year. The NAO/AO disconnect since 2011-12 has been fascinating, esp. with a correlation of nearly .9 in the dataset. With a pattern like that might as well call it an early spring...I'm sure we'll get something else before March. It's not a warm pattern in the Mid Atlantic/eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I take it he means a +PNA there? Yes. I usually say "RNA or PNA" but I know that's not the conventional way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm with you there regarding the QBO as a scapegoat this year. Yep. A peaking -QBO this winter was always anticipated. The raw numbers are not as important as the phase the shear stresses are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Anyone have verification numbers on these weekly and monthly forecasts out of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Got to love forecasts based off of forecasts.. I'm still waiting for forecasters and models to get day 5 correct. Try to understand that these are different types of forecasts.... Predicting synoptic scale weather into the medium range is actually more difficult than predicting climate trends over a couple of months. So the two things aren't comparable (5 day storm predictions and temp/AO trends to 1 month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Anyone have verification numbers on these weekly and monthly forecasts out of the Euro? I think Tony (rainshadow) has been doing something like this with the weekly forecasts over at Phillywx. I don't really stay on top of them so I don't know the extent of their verification history: http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/forum/5-medium-and-long-range-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Try to understand that these are different types of forecasts.... Predicting synoptic scale weather into the medium range is actually more difficult than predicting climate trends over a couple of months. So the two things aren't comparable (5 day storm predictions and temp/AO trends to 1 month). I understand that.. I guess my point is that seasonal forecasts are largely based on assumptions that a host of indices (NAO, QVC, El Nada, etc) work out a certain way.. far too many things have to come together IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think Tony (rainshadow) has been doing something like this with the weekly forecasts over at Phillywx. I don't really stay on top of them so I don't know the extent of their verification history: http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/forum/5-medium-and-long-range-discussion/ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 I still think there's reason to be interested in Monday. The gfs ens has enough varying solutions to at least think the op runs might not have it nailed down perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I have little doubt it will be 80% miserable through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 I have little doubt it will be 80% miserable through March. And likely beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I understand that.. I guess my point is that seasonal forecasts are largely based on assumptions that a host of indices (NAO, QVC, El Nada, etc) work out a certain way.. far too many things have to come together IMO This year was really tough because we didn't know if an El Niño was even going to develop yet back in October, hell, I'm still not really sure it has developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 And likely beyond Yeah, April is often crummy but at least it's turning green here by then and there's a lot of light. This winter is as confusing as last in many ways. There's some hangover there it seems but we've also seen plenty of Nino signs despite it not going anywhere. I wouldn't be that shocked to see it snow a lot (edit: or, at least many times) in Feb and Mar at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah, April is often crummy but at least it's turning green here by then and there's a lot of light. This winter is as confusing as last in many ways. There's some hangover there it seems but we've also seen plenty of Nino signs despite it not going anywhere. I wouldn't be that shocked to see it snow a lot (edit: or, at least many times) in Feb and Mar at this pt. I hope you're right on the Feb part, the March not so much. I'm on board for a March event if we can pull a -20 avg on the temps that go with it. Maybe more like a -30...on the high, which is pretty tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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