mitchnick Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS & EURO worlds apart on the LR threat probably because the Euro loves to over amplify everything in the 6-10 day range my guess is, if the seasonal pattern holds, that stronger storm on the Euro will be gone in a few runs, maybe even as soon as 12z eventually, it may get one of those right, but I have no faith in it until it can sniff one of those 7-10 threats out, hold it, and be right with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 probably because the Euro loves to over amplify everything in the 6-10 day range my guess is, if the seasonal pattern holds, that stronger storm on the Euro will be gone in a few runs, maybe even as soon as 12z eventually, it may get one of those right, but I have no faith in it until it can sniff one of those 7-10 threats out, hold it, and be right with it Storm details aside, gfs has zero amplification in front of the vort and just shears it away. Euro has modest amplification that allows it to develop and move north. I agree with you about euro trends this year. Odds probably favor a less organized and sheared solution. But maybe not as flat as the gfs. Hard to say at this point. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What does Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What does Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z GGEM has a good amount of moisture for the upcoming Monday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ouch.... 12z GGEM looks like a major ice storm for some... 1045 H nosing in from the Northern Plains (in W MN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0zeuro180hr.JPG Changeover event or all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Changeover event or all snow? Read upwards on this page. It was all discussed. 12z Euro comes out in about 1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Changeover event or all snow? All rain except maybe further west at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Read upwards on this page. It was all discussed. 12z Euro comes out in about 1.5 hours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GGEM advertising major ice storm west of I-95... even major ice in DC/BWI metro... DC gets to 34 around 1pm MON and then slowly goes back below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GGEM advertising major ice storm west of I-95... even major ice in DC/BWI metro... DC gets to 33, maybe 34 around 1pm MON and then slowly goes back below freezing I still believe it is too far away to get into the specifics of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I still believe it is too far away to get into the specifics of the storm. Possibly, but GGEM has been proposing an ice storm for our area for I believe a few straight runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cae, I moved your post to the short range thread since it's for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Cae, I moved your post to the short range thread since it's for tomorrow. No problem. I'd initially put it there, but that thread seemed to be more about obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 All rain except maybe further west at the end. Verbatim.. but given the track and climo and the fact that there is a lot of cold air around I would think that we could expect a colder trend. But I am not really trained at reading the model output so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ensembles are all showing a demise to the big +ao/nao we've been experiencing. 6z gefs mean shows a negative AO late in the run. Last 3 runs of the gfs op have shown higher heights in the nao/ao domain space. And then this lala gem is too good not to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ensembles are all showing a demise to the big +ao/nao we've been experiencing. 6z gefs mean shows a negative AO late in the run. Last 3 runs of the gfs op have shown higher heights in the nao/ao domain space. And then this lala gem is too good not to post. dude..it was showing this at 384 hours a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 dude..it was showing this at 384 hours a week ago. Nasty SE ridge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 dude..it was showing this at 384 hours a week ago. But it's not alone anymore. There is some support for an overall regime change at high latitudes within 2 weeks. We'll see. If it fails it will just add to the colossal failboat we've been riding since Dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It would be a universal ensemble fail to not at least get a neutral AO going in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 That's some good support, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 I think the gfs ens members look plenty interesting for Monday. I also am skeptical of the temps warming as advertised. Where is this warmth coming from? And a massive arctic airmass has a difficult time modifying this time of year. Throw in a massive high to the nw and I think there's a very good chance temps keep getting modeled colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 It would be a universal ensemble fail to not at least get a neutral AO going in the next 2 weeks. GEFS AO.JPG Euro AO.JPG GEM AO.JPG I'm with you, but an ensemble fail wouldn't be earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm with you, but an ensemble fail wouldn't be earth shattering. Heh. Nope, it surely wouldn't. This is the first time all winter we've had unanimous agreement that the +nao is going to get knocked down a few notches. We had some fleeting signals before the xmas storm that never materialized but that was event driven and what is going on now appears to be a regime change in general. We can only hope models are onto something but expect status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GGEM advertising major ice storm west of I-95... even major ice in DC/BWI metro... DC gets to 34 around 1pm MON and then slowly goes back below freezingGGEM has really been consistent showing Ice/Cold Rain for the Central/Western MD and NoVa area, like 7-8 runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Does the 12z EURO show any CAD at 96 hrs? I would think it would show some with that 1046 H in the Northern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Does the 12z EURO show any CAD at 96 hrs? I would think it would show some with that 1046 H in the Northern Plains Doesn't look like it. 850 temps are 2 degrees or so per TropicalTidbit's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Doesn't look like it. 850 temps are 2 degrees or so per TropicalTidbit's maps. I am looking more for the 925/1000 level temps... 850 has been +2/+3 for a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I am looking more for the 925/1000 level temps... 850 has been +2/+3 for a while now Surface is a uniform 30-31 at hr96. Light ice before it get scoured out. With hp like that it could end up a few degrees colder of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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