stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 So I'm looking at the GFS..there's a 1040+ high up there and we someone warm a bit...granted it's moving east..but so is the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And on the para, a sprawling 1041 High in the favored position and....no CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And on the para, a sprawling 1041 High in the favored position and....no CAD It was there... but suddenly it goes poof at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And on the para, a sprawling 1041 High in the favored position and....no CAD As modeled, that 1040 hp would anchor some serious cold air at the surface for someone. I suspect it trends colder if it verifies with the placement and strength of HP hold.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 00z GFS still has the ice "threat" on Monday... 1043 H moving east in tandem Could get kind of ugly in NW VA/C MD Per soundings... DCA sits in the 30-32 range pretty much all day long Monday... 00z GFS P-TYPE suggests FZDZ/FZRN at DCA for about 12 hrs straight (1am MON to 1pm MON) One would think that the CAD would be a bit stronger with dual 1040+ H supplying the CAD for us IMHO I think it will be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 00z GGEM is on board with GFS for ice threat on Monday 00z GGEM total accumulated FZRN map (if we were to accept its output verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 9mm would certainly be significant for DC. Much worse for the N/W burbs. That said, recent history says along and east of 95 is pretty bad at doing ice. Maybe an initial covering before the temp bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Im surprised no one say anything about the Euro -- definitely has some snow for most people next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Im surprised no one say anything about the Euro -- definitely has some snow for most people next week. I agree, but the Euro stuff I have access to is pretty hard to decipher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I agree, but the Euro stuff I have access to is pretty hard to decipher Same... I was hoping Bob Chill or zwyts could fill us in on what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Im surprised no one say anything about the Euro -- definitely has some snow for most people next week. 0z EURO has a decent CAD signature for early week. Would be an icing event west of I95 with a 1040+ high over southern Quebec. It's a drawn out, light precip event. On Thursday there is a beautiful vort pass of a 993MB low. It traverses NC, exits off of VA Beach and then NNE past Ocean City's latitude. Verbatim its a cold rain for almost everyone due to no high to the north. GFS old/new has an open wave passing harmlessly out to sea near GA/FL. The EURO was cold wall to wall. Also, the 6z GEFS shows a western ridge and a forming -NAO late in the period month. EPS has a ridge but no signs of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just remember that Ice doesn't accumulate that well in 30-32 degree temperatures, and that is basically what GFS/GGEM are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just remember that Ice doesn't accumulate that well in 30-32 degree temperatures, and that is basically what GFS/GGEM are showing. Yes, but I could see this "trending" colder on the models as we get closer. There is a nice, cold high in a pretty nice spot and another behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just remember that Ice doesn't accumulate that well in 30-32 degree temperatures, and that is basically what GFS/GGEM are showing. Depends on rates. Light precip, which is what this would be, can accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just remember that Ice doesn't accumulate that well in 30-32 degree temperatures, and that is basically what GFS/GGEM are showing. ZR can certainly accumulate and often does with no problem at 30-31, especially on above ground objects, and sometimes right at 32, especially if it isn't coming down too heavily. Some of the worst ZR's in this area were with the temp 30-32. Now roadside, upper 20's or even colder are often needed, especially for the main roads outside of some elevated roadways.Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ZR can certainly accumulate and often does with no problem at 30-31, especially on above ground objects, and sometimes right at 32, especially if it isn't coming down too heavily. Some of the worst ZR's in this area were with the temp 30-32. Now roadside, upper 20's or even colder are often needed, especially for the main roads outside of some elevated roadways. Edited Agreed. And its not like we are going to be 65 degrees the day before. All surfaces will be cold to begin with. It would be a hell of a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Agreed. And its not like we are going to be 65 degrees the day before. All surfaces will be cold to begin with. It would be a hell of a mess. Yup, it's pretty clear the conditions necessary for sidewalk/road impacts from ice around here. There has to be an extended period of cold beforehand. After a deep cold snap (like we're experiencing now), even if the precipitation is rain at 32.5 F, there can be lots of ice patches on the roads and sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 if its as others have said it does trend colder for the Monday system I'm wondering why the snow shield that is currently in Pennsylvania doesn't move south into our area, as depicted on the 6 Z GFS para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Overnight runs of the GFS bros complete lost the 15th/16th event and even the GEFS look less enthusiastic. Euro looks pretty similar to yesterday's runs though. GEFS develop a nice -AO/-NAO combo late in the run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 euro is snow for western burbs i would imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I have no idea how quickly the cold will get scoured out - but that's some real impressive cold from today through Saturday to sit on the are ahead of whatever precip arrives on Monday. I would guess the usual northwest areas outside the beltways have a really good shot a significant icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 euro is snow for western burbs i would imagine nope, not at IAD at least per Accuwx Euro number 850's are 1C, give or take looks like it would be a mix bag over the 36 hrs. of measurable qpf with the temps vacillating up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 nope, not at IAD at least per Accuwx Euro number 850's are 1C, give or take looks like it would be a mix bag over the 36 hrs. of measurable qpf with the temps vacillating up and down Verbatim euro cools the column to about 1c across most of the area as the heavier precip band comes through. Surface temps are an even bigger problem though. Cold rain as is but would only take a 1-2 degree drop to become a snowy solution. Not a bad look from so far out. That said I think this is bonus. I still think the later into the season we get the more likely some blocking develops. That's when we might get a really nice pattern. I think the epo obviously wants to be negative so if we can get any help from the nao down the line I think we cash in with a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Are you both talking about the early week storm or the late week? At 192hrs everyone looks below 0C at 850, but maybe precip is over then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Are you both talking about the early week storm or the late week? At 192hrs everyone looks below 0C at 850, but maybe precip is over then? late week. Precip is ending then. During the peak of the storm euro tries to crash temps but doesn't quite get there until too late. It's close enough at this range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Are you both talking about the early week storm or the late week? At 192hrs everyone looks below 0C at 850, but maybe precip is over then? 192 850s are below, but the precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Weenie question here: Is next week looking like one of those Catch-22 situations where the high is too weak to hold enough cold air in the region during the 3~ days of overrunning precip, but if the high were stronger, the storm would stay suppressed to the south? And like most of our overrunning situations, we really have to thread the needle and be right on the fringe of cold air/precip cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Weenie question here: Is next week looking like one of those Catch-22 situations where the high is too weak to hold enough cold air in the region during the 3~ days of overrunning precip, but if the high were stronger, the storm would stay suppressed to the south? And like most of our overrunning situations, we really have to thread the needle and be right on the fringe of cold air/precip cutoff? The bigger issue for the early week storm is the high is old. You don't need a strong high when it's fresh and an old strong high goes stale. Especially in the mid levels. Surface can hang tough hence the main threat being ice. The later week system is completely unresolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Double gfs's show some light ice early monday before flipping to rain. All depends on how much precip gets in before 9am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS & EURO worlds apart on the LR threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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