Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Para has a more complicated storm evolution for the same time (~15th), but ends up with a strong Miller B. I didn't like seeing the para tbh. Of course it's lalala and stuff but seeing a phase with a lakes low is a dagger in these parts. I don't care what the maps look like. Luckily we'll have over 50 different looks from 7 different models to choose from over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think that is something we need to go to wow and randy with. It would definitely cut down on superfluous posts and banter and make threads more tidy. I agree with this. Other forums use the like button to keep the banter down. even if we get sfc to cooperate and even 850's to quasi cooperate, the track will be bad and/or there will be a warm nose somewhere of +14 Yeah. I think it would have a decent chance of cutting if we get an amped up vort. There is alot of confluence to keep it from cutting on this run. But if we lose that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z UKIE at 144 looks decent for some wintry precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GGEM looks like a semi-coastal storm and also has a high moving in tandem supporting cold air damming hrs 132-156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Canadian still throws some ice our way early next week. Euro now showing a much better cad hp setup than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Canadian still throws some ice our way early next week. Euro now showing a much better cad hp setup than 0z. Agreed, 1038 in ME and a 1034 entering the N Plains at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Canadian still throws some ice our way early next week. Euro now showing a much better cad hp setup than 0z. looks like your standard winter weather advisory for the far western burbs that doesn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Agreed, 1038 in ME and a 1034 entering the N Plains at 144 Legit ice storm not too far from the beltway. Prob even some snow near the m/d. 850's -1 up there this run. Much colder than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 looks like your standard winter weather advisory for the far western burbs that doesn't verify Probably. Especially considering previous warm runs. But verbatim it's .5 qpf with temps below freezing for the close burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 192 looks "interesting" with the 0c 850 line running I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 192 looks "interesting" with the 0c 850 line running I-95It's still a disappointing solution. Nice +pna ridge, great vort pass, but crappy temps and weak precip. I suppose the bright side is the vort pass and +pna. That's better to have on your side at this lead than marginal temps and unresolved evolution of the lp.ETA: still 2-3" verbatim so there's that. My goodness parts of SNE get hammered on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GGEM has a frozen icebox for much of the E US Day 8-10... prob some record cold lows looking at 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's still a disappointing solution. Nice +pna ridge, great vort pass, but crappy temps and weak precip. I suppose the bright side is the vort pass and +pna. That's better to have on your side at this lead than marginal temps and unresolved evolution of the lp. ETA: still 2-3" verbatim so there's that. My goodness parts of SNE get hammered on this run. is it a miller B, Miller A or Miller lite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 is it a miller B, Miller A or Miller lite? Miller WW. Weak and warm. Until it moves into sne. Then it's a Miller C(rush) We should probably be happy with the run. It's a straight up the coast miller A with some problems for us verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's still a disappointing solution. Nice +pna ridge, great vort pass, but crappy temps and weak precip. I suppose the bright side is the vort pass and +pna. That's better to have on your side at this lead than marginal temps and unresolved evolution of the lp. ETA: still 2-3" verbatim so there's that. My goodness parts of SNE get hammered on this run. Just saw it. That's a nice setup at upper levels. 850s are sub-zero as well. I'm pretty satisfied with that at this range. is it a miller B, Miller A or Miller lite? Wondering that too. Hard to tell with 24hr panels on Ewall and the confusion from the weaker event right before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 accuweather euro maps arent finished till about 2:15pm. Kind of annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just saw it. That's a nice setup at upper levels. 850s are sub-zero as well. I'm pretty satisfied with that at this range. Wondering that too. Hard to tell with 24hr panels on Ewall and the confusion from the weaker event right before it. Definitely a miller A on this run. There is no NS vort phasing or coast jumping. It's a little strung out in evolution until it's north of our latitude. Some backside digging of energy delaying things from a quick glance. All in all, we should be pretty happy with the run though. Regardless of verbatim precip. 850's lag as it organizes and approaches. That's worrisome. Never like midlevels chasing in. Much better off when midlevels are ok in advance. But that kind of detail is silly right now. We have a legit threat still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just saw it. That's a nice setup at upper levels. 850s are sub-zero as well. I'm pretty satisfied with that at this range. Wondering that too. Hard to tell with 24hr panels on Ewall and the confusion from the weaker event right before it. Always leery of events that are following other events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS-Para gives us some snow the 13th. GFS gives us sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS looks fun Almost 18 hrs of FZDZ or freezing rain... fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Looking at the ops runs today, it seems pretty likely we get at least one "wintry" event next week if not 2. Too bad the setup is messy and tricky. We probably won't get much consensus on the early week storm until sometime this weekend. For now it looks like ice and/or rain is the most likely outcome. Euro ensembles overall are pretty bullish for winter weather and at pretty long leads still so that is encouraging. Mean track for the late week storm remains off and up the coast so that is good. Large spread in timing and a pretty wide track range.Down the line, the relax period looks pretty short. 3-4 days tops on ens guidance. Hopefully that keeps shrinking. -EPO quickly rebuilds on both the gefs and eps so we're probably in decent shape for Matt's favorite part of January.Looks like the raging +NAO/AO come down a few notches. Both the gefs and ec have been advertising a "demise" to neutral for both within 2 weeks. We'll see how that goes. People might faint around here if they go negative.ETA: 18z gefs has some decent snow solutions for the late week system. At least 5 members have a nice track. ETA#2: This is good snow setup without blocking. Very good ridge/trough placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 New weather video is up online. I will talk about the Friday, and weekend potential. Not to mention another potential storm next week. More details in the video. Thank you everyone for liking my page, videos and sharing them. Please invite your Friends on Facebook on the left hand side of the page under invite. Thanks again! -Chris www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitaminmawc Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Love watching your videos Deltadog03, been watching for a few days now! Keep them coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looking at the ops runs today, it seems pretty likely we get at least one "wintry" event next week if not 2. Too bad the setup is messy and tricky. We probably won't get much consensus on the early week storm until sometime this weekend. For now it looks like ice and/or rain is the most likely outcome. Euro ensembles overall are pretty bullish for winter weather and at pretty long leads still so that is encouraging. Mean track for the late week storm remains off and up the coast so that is good. Large spread in timing and a pretty wide track range. Down the line, the relax period looks pretty short. 3-4 days tops on ens guidance. Hopefully that keeps shrinking. -EPO quickly rebuilds on both the gefs and eps so we're probably in decent shape for Matt's favorite part of January. Looks like the raging +NAO/AO come down a few notches. Both the gefs and ec have been advertising a "demise" to neutral for both within 2 weeks. We'll see how that goes. People might faint around here if they go negative. ETA: 18z gefs has some decent snow solutions for the late week system. At least 5 members have a nice track. ETA#2: This is good snow setup without blocking. Very good ridge/trough placement I agree Bob. I like that look. Looks like the gulf would be open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 JMA has the mix to snow event Wed-Thurs next week too surprising how EC, GFS and JAM show a very similar evolution of mix to snow a week away we haven't had that kind of mr model consensus for a sunny day this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Tonight is the night the Euro probably takes us to the pinnacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 DT doesn't care much for the upcoming threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 00z GFS still has the ice "threat" on Monday... 1043 H moving east in tandem Could get kind of ugly in NW VA/C MD Per soundings... DCA sits in the 30-32 range pretty much all day long Monday... 00z GFS P-TYPE suggests FZDZ/FZRN at DCA for about 12 hrs straight (1am MON to 1pm MON) One would think that the CAD would be a bit stronger with dual 1040+ H supplying the CAD for us IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Think the para is getting rid of the CAD too fast Monday... 1041 H is sitting in Quebec at that time and slowly moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.