Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I scanned the euro ens solutions for next week. First off, not much support for an inland runner. Mean track for the mon-tues and subsequent storm is off the coast. But temps are an issue so there is still plenty of risk with a storm tracking se of us. Looks like tues-wed favors some sort of overunning/weak low that gets organized off the coast but prob too late and too east. The next one up has a ton of spread but a decent signal for a more organized storm is there. Op runs are going to drive us nuts for a while. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I scanned the euro ens solutions for next week. First off, not much support for an inland runner. Mean track for the mon-tues and subsequent storm is off the coast. But temps are an issue so there is still plenty of risk with a storm tracking se of us. Looks like mon-tues favors some sort of overunning/weak low that gets organized off the coast but prob too late and too east. The next one up has a ton of spread but a decent signal for a more organized storm is there. Op runs are going to drive us nuts for a while. lol. I'll be doing an outlook tomorrow so I'll have to be careful to convey how much uncertainty there is concerning the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'll be doing an outlook tomorrow so I'll have to be careful to convey how much uncertainty there is concerning the period. just choose from one of these and leave it at that https://www.google.com/search?q=picture+of+shrugging+shoulders&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We have to sneak something in the next 10 days..even if it is a 1-3" event or a couple mangled T-2...We are not in prime time yet, but we are getting close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'll be doing an outlook tomorrow so I'll have to be careful to convey how much uncertainty there is concerning the period. Definitely a very tough period to try and describe. The least likely scenario is a big snowstorm out of this but some sort of weird (and lucky) overrunning setup "could" happen where the column is good and produce a decent sized snowfall without an organized coastal storm. But that same setup could be all rain or a kitchen sink or a whiff east. lol. I kinda expect some wintry weather out of it in some fashion. Good climo period for temps and some cold highs to the north moving around. CMC wants to destroy our power grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 2004-05 has been a pretty good analog..That pattern flipped after the 15th, and then we had 2 distinct periods of a good pattern...end of January and End of February, beginning of March. We didn't get our 1st snowfall until 1/19 that winter, other than a cartopper in December, but we all exceeded median and got to near climo...I really don't think we can be very confident about what comes outside of the 4-7 day range....I think any attempts to capture what will happen from January 15th to March 10th are low confidence...I still don't have a stance on whether we hit climo or not...I have no opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Definitely a very tough period to try and describe. The least likely scenario is a big snowstorm out of this but some sort of weird (and lucky) overrunning setup "could" happen where the column is good and produce a decent sized snowfall without an organized coastal storm. But that same setup could be all rain or a kitchen sink or a whiff east. lol. I kinda expect some wintry weather out of it in some fashion. Good climo period for temps and some cold highs to the north moving around. CMC wants to destroy our power grid. My guess would be for systems to pass overhead or to our west. Each model run has been showing a more robust SE ridge which has been the case all winter plus a lack of Atlantic blocking. I think even the early-midweek system will be more rain than ice. Climo is good right now so that may help areas in the N&W but locally I'm not enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 My guess would be for systems to pass overhead or to our west. Each model run has been showing a more robust SE ridge which has been the case all winter plus a lack of Atlantic blocking. I think even the early-midweek system will be more rain than ice. Climo is good right now so that may help areas in the N&W but locally I'm not enthused. Trend for the early week system has been warmer for sure. With precip not making it here until tues, the airmass in place is pretty stale. Beyond that we look to get help from a ridge out west. Makes things more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Let's just lock the gfs in for thurs/fri next week and call Jan a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Trend for the early week system has been warmer for sure. With precip not making it here until tues, the airmass in place is pretty stale. Beyond that we look to get help from a ridge out west. Makes things more interesting. I agree. Initially the ridge placement is a little too far west, thus more SE ridging. In time it moves onshore and we trough slightly big-time east of the Mississippi. With indication of a split-flow we could get something at any time. Longer range, the western ridge still seems to exist and may get pumped up later in the month as a result of a massive trough coming out of Asia. If we can get any semblance of a -NAO around that time we will likely be in a great spot. Edit: Just saw the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Trend for the early week system has been warmer for sure. With precip not making it here until tues, the airmass in place is pretty stale. Beyond that we look to get help from a ridge out west. Makes things more interesting. The air mass is definitely a rotting disgrace, which supports your idea that CAD might be the only thing to save us...the mid levels will probably be awful...But we reload and get pattern shift mid week...so that may be a window of opportunity..some time from next Wednesday through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Let's just lock the gfs in for thurs/fri next week and call Jan a success. I like that look. Reinforcing cold as weak juicy coastal takes an ideal track. I think this qualifies as the high end potential we could look for in this pattern. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's a 10:1 longshot, but maybe we can peel something off on Friday or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The air mass is definitely a rotting disgrace, which supports your idea that CAD might be the only thing to save us...the mid levels will probably be awful...But we reload and get pattern shift mid week...so that may be a window of opportunity..some time from next Wednesday through the weekend Rotting disgrace is a more amusing term than stale. haha Obviously we still don't know exactly how the early/mid week deal will work out. With no reinforcing high and precip moving in late it's pretty easy to draw simple conclusions. Hard to ignore the nice ridge/trough placement later in the week. That's a nice look considering the craplantic pattern. I feel like we pull it out but that's probably because we just maximized a cold powder clipper. Once that melts my mood will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Para has a more complicated storm evolution for the same time (~15th), but ends up with a strong Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Rotting disgrace is a more amusing term than stale. haha Obviously we still don't know exactly how the early/mid week deal will work out. With no reinforcing high and precip moving in late it's pretty easy to draw simple conclusions. Hard to ignore the nice ridge/trough placement later in the week. That's a nice look considering the craplantic pattern. I feel like we pull it out but that's probably because we just maximized a cold powder clipper. Once that melts my mood will change. You guys suck...Only you guys get a south trend on a clipper from 5 days out and then over perform to a region wide 4-6", The MLK weekend storm has a chance with the big PNA ridge, good things can happen. Think positive thoughts and keep the MA mojo going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Rotting disgrace is a more amusing term than stale. haha Obviously we still don't know exactly how the early/mid week deal will work out. With no reinforcing high and precip moving in late it's pretty easy to draw simple conclusions. Hard to ignore the nice ridge/trough placement later in the week. That's a nice look considering the craplantic pattern. I feel like we pull it out but that's probably because we just maximized a cold powder clipper. Once that melts my mood will change. Our rea l chance looks to be more like the 15th or 16th as that when the pac ridge shifts east again for a short period. The downside is that the low still could track like the 00Z euro or have a northern stream low like today's para to mess the low levels up but the operational models are really liking that period. The earlier try at an event looks more like rain or freezing rain if the CAD holds in a little more than forecast. By the D 11-15 period, we look to have a period where temps will average a bit above normal if he ensembles are right which this year is a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Let's just lock the gfs in for thurs/fri next week and call Jan a success. yes..I'm not even sure something Wednesday is not in play...XBOX now gives us the dummy end of a coastal next week..maybe this inevitable thaw in 10+ days is apocryphal or will be uber brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Our rea l chance looks to be more like the 15th or 16th as that when the pac ridge shifts east again for a short period. The downside is that the low still could track like the 00Z euro or have a northern stream low like today's para to mess the low levels up but the operational models are really liking that period. The earlier try at an event looks more like rain or freezing rain if the CAD holds in a little more than forecast. By the D 11-15 period, we look to have a period where temps will average a bit above normal if he ensembles are right which this year is a big if. Climo gets good enough end of next week, that we might be able to break a tackle and turn a 2 yard run into a 7 yard run then kick a FG that hits the uprights but sneaks in. I'll take the 3 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You guys suck...Only you guys get a south trend on a clipper from 5 days out and then over perform to a region wide 4-6", The MLK weekend storm has a chance with the big PNA ridge, good things can happen. Think positive thoughts and keep the MA mojo going. A region-wide 4-6? What region was that? Not ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Let's just lock the gfs in for thurs/fri next week and call Jan a success. Hmm, looks not too far from 12/29/93, which was one of the super-ensemble analogs centered on 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You guys suck...Only you guys get a south trend on a clipper from 5 days out and then over perform to a region wide 4-6", The MLK weekend storm has a chance with the big PNA ridge, good things can happen. Think positive thoughts and keep the MA mojo going. 2-4" for much of DC metro...But once you get a taste of the choco from the harz mountains of Germany, you can't go back to black tar. You guys might be able to sneak something in when we flip to a Nino pattern in 7-10 days...That will be a window of opportunity for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Hmm, looks not too far from 12/29/93, which was one of the super-ensemble analogs centered on 1/15. That was a really nice storm and packed main arteries in DC...snow emergency went into effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 how come i cant just like this post without having to type something and waste my time I think that is something we need to go to wow and randy with. It would definitely cut down on superfluous posts and banter and make threads more tidy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GFS puts us in the game from hours 174ish through 204ish? I like what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think that is something we need to go to wow and randy with. It would definitely cut down on superfluous posts and banter and make threads more tidy. Like +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think that is something we need to go to wow and randy with. It would definitely cut down on superfluous posts and banter and make threads more tidy. Ok. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Am I looking at the right thing on the GFS? The GFS and the para are sorta world's apart on the 114-138 time frame with the High and press of cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Am I looking at the right thing on the GFS? The GFS and the para are sorta world's apart on the 114-138 time frame with the High and press of cold air? even if we get sfc to cooperate and even 850's to quasi cooperate, the track will be bad and/or there will be a warm nose somewhere of +14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 even if we get sfc to cooperate and even 850's to quasi cooperate, the track will be bad and/or there will be a warm nose somewhere of +14 Agreed, it's just a striking difference. I thought I was looking at the wrong maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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