stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ice storms are usually dumb.. especially around here. I'd be willing to always punt them if I could. Must be nice to have that luxury. Tell the folks back in the New England forum we said hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 HM, that does make sense. Where I fail is understanding the connection between the strat and trop and how they "play together" outside of a legit SSW event that downwells. My biggest question is when seeing temporary splits like we are experiencing as we speak, does this affect NH circ and allow the trop PV to get displaced out of the arctic? Or is what's happening right now just a coincidence? Obviously the AO is still solid + but a pretty nice intrusion of arctic air is happening. OTOH, if the epo/scand ridges caused the split I suppose there doesn't have to be any connection because they are driving the current pattern. It's typical for these features in the troposphere to drive arctic air southward regardless of the state of the strat PV. Is the temporary split we're having now completely inconsequential to the part of the atmosphere we care about or is it helping in some way even though it's going to be transient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yes, when I said anything is possible I meant plenty of op to fail too and also a big/organized storm is something we probably don't want. Weak waves or >1k lows running into cold air would be the ticket. Obviously having an imperfect pattern during peak temp climo isn't nearly as worrisome as opposed to the fringe periods. Looks like the euro is stepping away from a big relaxation like the gefs. We'll battle low heights out west for a time. 3-5 days? Ridging builds pretty quick over AK and a +pna will probably kick back in. -NAO still very much not in the cards. We can't even get teased by it on the models except for a stray 360hr gfs op run. Euro ENS has a pretty nice signal for d10...I know I know 10 days out. Congrats to you all on the snow. I haven't been following it in this forum, but it seems like it was an over performer. Nice to get one under the belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro ENS has a pretty nice signal for d10...I know I know 10 days out. Congrats to you all on the snow. I haven't been following it in this forum, but it seems like it was an over performer. Nice to get one under the belt. There is a growing # of southern frozen solutions on the euro ens from d8-12. You NC guys in the piedmont/westward are probably going to get something. Maybe everything by the looks of it! lol. Today was a great day. I got lucky this go around. Clipper jackpots skip me (and DC) 4 out of 5 times. I took my teenage daughter out for winter driving lessons today. We had a lot of fun and didn't wreck. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 HM, that does make sense. Where I fail is understanding the connection between the strat and trop and how they "play together" outside of a legit SSW event that downwells. My biggest question is when seeing temporary splits like we are experiencing as we speak, does this affect NH circ and allow the trop PV to get displaced out of the arctic? Or is what's happening right now just a coincidence? Obviously the AO is still solid + but a pretty nice intrusion of arctic air is happening. OTOH, if the epo/scand ridges caused the split I suppose there doesn't have to be any connection because they are driving the current pattern. It's typical for these features in the troposphere to drive arctic air southward regardless of the state of the strat PV. Is the temporary split we're having now completely inconsequential to the part of the atmosphere we care about or is it helping in some way even though it's going to be transient? That polar vortex nearby in Canada is intimately connected to one of the split PVs in the stratosphere. In a splitting scenario, they are usually vertically aligned and look like cone tornadoes. If some wave is capable of splitting this massive wedge tornado into two cone tornadoes, then the tropospheric polar vortex will also follow along. The PV displacement we are seeing and this record cold is from the breaking waves directly....they not only worked to displace the vortex in horizontal direction (EPO high etc.) but they gave momentum to sending that massive polar vortex southward too. Down the road, the vortex has been significantly compromised. The next set of waves will have an easier time destroying this sucker...a sucker that has more "spin" and angular momentum than one would have speculated back in October. But the wave activity and strength is behaving in tandem with those factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 There is a growing # of southern frozen solutions on the euro ens from d8-12. You NC guys in the piedmont/westward are probably going to get something. Maybe everything by the looks of it! lol. Today was a great day. I got lucky this go around. Clipper jackpots skip me (and DC) 4 out of 5 times. I took my teenage daughter out for winter driving lessons today. We had a lot of fun and didn't wreck. haha That made me laugh. If you do that down here, someone will probably wreck her. Lots of bad winter drivers here. Good luck to us on the 10 day thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah that's basically the next window of opportunity. You are stating that between now and then there are no opportunities for cold/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 You are stating that between now and then there are no opportunities for cold/snow? no,a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The hybrid PNA to Nino pattern will be short-lived as more anticyclones break up there in the EPO-AO domain. Things are again becoming ripe for some type of eastern US cyclonic wave breaker (like xmas) around the 20th or so....maybe this time it will actually work out properly. This last time worked out sorta but it was lame. It's been relatively easy to stick with the strat PV maintaining itself. It's just hasn't really had that look of getting Ivan Drago'd except for the look at has currently, but it goes right back. It's given me pause for getting excited about a -NAO. However, that look on the long range has me intrigued. Maybe the GOAK trough and any wave breaking from east coast cyclogenesis will combine to fo the trick. I'd like to see how this looks as we get closer. I'm not sold on a -NAO ridge lasting for a long time at the moment , but it's early. It wouldn't shock me if we get that ridge over AK and curving over to nrn Greenland at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great post HM. Thank you and I definitely have a clearer understanding. I've enjoyed viewing strat height and temp maps this year. Now that you confirmed that they can be used as a tool for gaining more clarity on sensible wx with op and ensemble runs at med-long leads, it will be fun continuing to observe and get better at being an armchair hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Pretty incredible Pacific jet extension here on the 18z GFS (also showing up on other guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Pretty incredible Pacific jet extension here on the 18z GFS (also showing up on other guidance). Good or bad? I'm assuming bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good or bad? I'm assuming bad. It would be bad if it reached the West Coast but you can see how the ridging out west halts, diverts and splits the jet. Sets up split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Andrew at the Weather Centre thinks winter is on its last legs... http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-outlook-thaw-gives-way-to-final.html He was pretty spot on last winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Andrew at the Weather Centre thinks winter is on its last legs... http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-outlook-thaw-gives-way-to-final.html He was pretty spot on last winter.. No disrespect to any prognosticators, 5 days ago many were punting the first 15 days of January. Many in this forum will shiver looking at the fresh snow that fell today, pondering the new threats that have popped up in the last few model runs. In this pattern, nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Good or bad? I'm assuming bad. The pattern before the jet reaches the West Coast shouldn't be bad WRT winter weather concerns in the east (as suggested by guidance today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any new info. on early next week far as ice potential with latest models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any new info. on early next week far as ice potential with latest models? No way to drill down to detail for at least 3-4 more days at the earliest. Depends on how quick things progress. All models point towards a potential precip event in the Mon-thurs timeframe but no clarity as to evolution and thermal profile. From what I see, even if an ice scenario played out, temps won't likely be much below freezing. The typical pretty on the trees and easy on the streets type of deal. Total guess though. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CMC is very bullish on this and has TON ofIce over VA western NC WVA MD and rain over eastern NC se va lower md eastern shore s NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 IF the winter is going to turn this it will be AFTER the JAN 16/17 - JAN 22/23mild spell when the MJO moves into phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just keep the damn thing in the COD and we should be okay, as long as it does no go amplified through 3,4,5, or 6 again at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 LOL..GGEM is wall to wall precip from 138 to 180...looks like everything (mostly ice, but barely) is thrown in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Euro is off and on light rain/drizzle/temps in the 30s for like 80 hours or so next week. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And then ends with an warm inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And then ends with an warm inland runner And we are back to our regularly scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Gfs-PARA gives us a snow event next Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And then ends with an warm inland runner No worries. Not til we see what King NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Hopefully, CFS2 will be as correct with JAN as it was with DEC....and it keep trending colder each day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 If you line up the last four runs of the gfs valid for 00z next Tuesday it really looks to the untrained eye that there is a positive trend in favor of a winter weather event during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I know ice can suck (have been around some hellacious events growing up in Ohio), but...man...if that's all we have to track, I am all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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