January Med/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

Both 12z GFS reg and Para have a lil somethin for next Tue timeframe. NYE Cartopper?

[Bob Chill]

Frankly, it's a barren wasteland of hopelessness across the forums when I poked around. Even SNE.

Wait and see is a tough thing for weenies. We want answers and locked in threats. Aren't going to get that for a bit.

Para drops a couple inches late monday/tues morn. Temps are pretty good. That's the only thing worth dissecting right now. There's a bit of support on the euro ens as well.

[nj2va]

1060 H into the Rockies on the Para on Tuesday. -24 850s. That's some arctic air coming down.

[Bob Chill]

Para also keeps the system on the 3rd below us and builds a 1031hp in se canada. I'm just going to hug the coldest and snowiest model to keep my spirits up.

[Amped]

1060 H into the Rockies on the Para on Tuesday. -24 850s. That's some arctic air coming down.

Para maybe over doing it by a few MB, I have noticed it looks a bit higher than other models. Either way, it's going to be effin cold in Denver Tuesday.

[Bob Chill]

We're one model run away from getting excited about an advisory event mon night/tues.

[Ian]

We're one model run away from getting excited about an advisory event mon night/tues.

Too bad the euro is up next,

[Bob Chill]

Too bad the euro is up next,

You deciphered the code in my post perfectly

[T. August]

I'm hugging the Para. It's been showing pretty much the same thing for 12/30 for days now. Advisory snow in much of the area.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Wow, pretty depressing all around!  I agree with much of the sentiment that it's not "panic time" yet.  Far too early for that.  I'm hopeful for a more back-loaded winter.  But the air of concern is very much warranted.  I didn't expect a big December or any major snow events, though something a little better than a shut-out (or near shut-out) would be nice.  The thing I'm concerned about is that looking into the medium to longer range, there just simply does not seem to be anything encouraging to hang your hat on.  It would be one thing if there were solid indications that we're actually heading into winter as January arrives, but so far that's kind of looking slim right now.  Not all that long ago, the last week or so of December really looked quite favorable, even downright exciting, in what was then the longer range.  That's all but evaporated, and is a trend I don't like to see.  I guess some good news is, there's definitely cold air on this side of the hemisphere.  So if/when we get a pattern change to something favorable we'll be able to tap into that Arctic cold well enough I'd think.

[Ian]

You deciphered the code in my post perfectly

Getting to Dec snow avg at the end of the mo would be kind of comical. Goooo dr nooooooo.

[ers-wxman1]

Last year was similar up until this point. Big transition didn't occur until Jan 21

[Bob Chill]

Getting to Dec snow avg at the end of the mo would be kind of comical. Goooo dr nooooooo.

GEM was close with a couple inches. Just north of the M/D but we got some pity dust.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Last year was similar up until this point. Big transition didn't occur until Jan 21

 

True enough, for sure.  It was very cold the 2nd part of January.  But we did also have some downright cold days the first week of January last year (and a bit of snow).  Offers some hope...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Getting to Dec snow avg at the end of the mo would be kind of comical. Goooo dr nooooooo.

 

Expecting someone else, hmmmm???  We're holding Dr. No hostage for.....

 

 

One hundred BILLION dollars!

[Bob Chill]

Last year was similar up until this point. Big transition didn't occur until Jan 21

DC specific but not just n-w did quite well during Dec but plenty north up the coast. We also got the Jan 2nd event which was great. This years complete lack of activity in the east thus far is pretty terrible in comparison to last.

OTOH, I was never expecting to get anywhere near last year's totals this year and would also be thrilled with a turnaround just to get things going soon. Sure would like to put something on the board though. If we can get a 2+" event in the next 2 weeks it would do wonders for the weenie soul.

[Ji]

Last year was similar up until this point. Big transition didn't occur until Jan 21

bull crap. I had 12 inches in December and we had some huge storms early January

[Ji]

Bob Chill...what happened to those great ensemble runs 2-3 days ago which you said looked so promising?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

DC specific but not just n-w did quite well during Dec but plenty north up the coast. We also got the Jan 2nd event which was great. This years complete lack of activity in the east thus far is pretty terrible in comparison to last. OTOH, I was never expecting to get anywhere near last year's totals this year and would also be thrilled with a turnaround just to get things going soon. Sure would like to put something on the board though. If we can get a 2+" event in the next 2 weeks it would do wonders for the weenie soul.

 

I did pretty decently with the Jan. 2 event here, too.  At least relatively speaking.  I know it was kind of a bust overall, there were cancellations and warnings out.

 

As for this month, it does "feel" worse than last year, at least subjectively.  I know we torched for awhile right around Christmas, but the first part of the month had some excitement (including an ice event).  Again, perhaps better farther N/W.  This December has been a veritable desert.  I feel like it's the bottom of the 8th inning, and we're on the verge of being on the wrong end of a no hitter!  (Or, perhaps more aptly, feels like KC when lights-out Bumgarner came in during Game 7 of this year's Series!).

[Bob Chill]

Bob Chill...what happened to those great ensemble runs 2-3 days ago which you said looked so promising?

 

They are less promising now. Blame the sun. 

 

12gefs looked decent. Raging -epo and mean trough axis over the eastern half. 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Bob Chill...what happened to those great ensemble runs 2-3 days ago which you said looked so promising?

 

Actually, the ensemble mean pattern doesn't look half-bad to be honest.  That's just a cursory glance on my part, at the 00Z GEFS mean.

[Ji]

They are less promising now. Blame the sun. 

 

12gefs looked decent. Raging -epo and mean trough axis over the eastern half. 

 

that loooks better. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

They are less promising now. Blame the sun. 

 

12gefs looked decent. Raging -epo and mean trough axis over the eastern half. 

 

 

Looks kind of like the 00Z from last night.  Yeah, definitely a better look than the deterministic GFS and there's a hint even of ridging building over the Pole toward Greenland.  Unless I'm straining my eyes (and reality) a bit too much there!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

bull crap. I had 12 inches in December and we had some huge storms early January

 

I just looked at the January 2014 climate reports from IAD, BWI, and DCA (aren't you closest to IAD?).  I know there was the January 2 event which was better to the north and west of DC and there were some pretty cold days early in the month.  But "huge storms" in early January?  I don't see evidence of that and certainly don't recall it.  Middle of the month was kinda meh, before we got back into some real cold air and that event on the 21st.

[Bob Chill]

that loooks better. 

 

 

Looks kind of like the 00Z from last night.  Yeah, definitely a better look than the deterministic GFS and there's a hint even of ridging building over the Pole toward Greenland.  Unless I'm straining my eyes (and reality) a bit too much there!

 

 

Euro ens are similar as well. The problem is the only stable feature is the -epo and no signs of the atlantic helping. Yes, it's a pattern that can produce snow. But not one where we can expect any long lead threats to hold. So it's a frustrating pattern. No way you can have any confidence in getting anything until it's really close in time. Hopefully the euro shows snow mon-tues in a few minutes. Not holding my breath. 

[packbacker]

They are less promising now. Blame the sun. 

 

12gefs looked decent. Raging -epo and mean trough axis over the eastern half. 

 

 

So simliar to last year...

[StudentOfClimatology]

They are less promising now. Blame the sun.

12gefs looked decent. Raging -epo and mean trough axis over the eastern half.

That looks a lot like last winter, actually. We can make things work here without a -NAO, so long as we have a dominant EPO ridge.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Euro ens are similar as well. The problem is the only stable feature is the -epo and no signs of the atlantic helping. Yes, it's a pattern that can produce snow. But not one where we can expect any long lead threats to hold. So it's a frustrating pattern. No way you can have any confidence in getting anything until it's really close in time. Hopefully the euro shows snow mon-tues in a few minutes. Not holding my breath. 

 

Yeah, it's not the most intriguing pattern that's for sure.  But a better look than the deterministic and it is nice seeing the vortex on this side of the Pole (he says, looking for shreds of something positive!).  I keep hoping against hope that we'll see some real signs of the Atlantic becoming favorable, but as I said before it's almost like we cannot even *buy* a -NAO for the past 2 or 3 years!  That's really killing us.

 

ETA:  As several have implied, at least that -EPO is trying to keep us in the game.  For now.

[Bob Chill]

So simliar to last year...

 

 

The scand ridge helped last year though. Helped keep the pv displaced and not an easy escape route. The ridge bridge last year was great. But europe hated it...

 

The gefs shows the opposite of that ridge. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

this winter sure doesn't feel like last winter to me.  pretty sure my grass wasn't spring green and in need of mowing last Christmas.