Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I have a hunch we end up with a decent ice event mixed in there. Something like a .15 - .25 deal. Obviously the urban centers struggle but there could be pretty big wedge setting up in the next week. I ran the h5 vort loops for the euro. It's a pretty good setup for long duration light precip. Confluent flow overhead, hp to the n & w, and all kinds of pieces of energy cruising along. D9-10 has a closed ull that looks to slide either under us or directly overhead. Obviously it's just a run and well outside of op model skill range but it's not like the euro is an outlier. GFS/GFS2/GGEM all have their own variation of the same theme. At least we won't be bored for a while. Euro also builds a nice +pna d10 so the fun would prob continue if that feature verifies. Has ensemble and other op support. I'm at 4.6" on the year including the .8" in November. Would love to close Jan with 10-12" regardless of how I get there. Makes climo much more in reach for Feb. we're already on the board with Champagne powder...ice would be a disappointment...I'm not desperate like I was in 2011-2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 If you want a successful ice storm, you want light over a long duration. Just sayin' thanks Larry Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 thanks Larry Cosgrove I want deck pics...not railing pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I want deck pics...not railing pics Ice storms are usually dumb.. especially around here. I'd be willing to always punt them if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ice storms are usually dumb.. especially around here. I'd be willing to always punt them if I could. What about .25" of ice covered with 2-3" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ice storms are usually dumb.. especially around here. I'd be willing to always punt them if I could.Yea the last really good one we had around here was 16 years ago. I lost power for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What about .25" of ice covered with 2-3" of snow? That doesn't sound dumb. I would take that over a quick hitting 3-6...hate events where the back edge is easily seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What about .25" of ice covered with 2-3" of snow? that might be ok... though i'll probably annoyingly root against anything that might happen between next wed and next sun.. sorry in advance. Yea the last really good one we had around here was 16 years ago. I lost power for 5 days. that's the problem.. the good ones make life suck. that said, i would take 1"+ of ice if that was an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ice storms are like tornadoes. Cool if its happening somewhere other than your back yard. The ones we had back in the 90s wrecked the trees(and my car) and no power for days. I'll take 33 and rain thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 i have no interest in an ice storm. i experienced what they're like last year driving through nc on my way to atlanta. the durham area was a mess with electricity out everywhere. luckily towards charlotte it improved and there was a gas station open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1999 ice storm was devastating for my neighborhood . No power for almost six days. Trees on houses. Roads blocked for days by fallen power lines and larger branches. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ice storms are like tornadoes. Cool if its happening somewhere other than your back yard. The ones we had back in the 90s wrecked the trees(and my car) and no power for days. I'll take 33 and rain thanks. Saw one in CT that put down like 1.25" or so ice. It was pretty awesome but also terrible. Worth seeing once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 that might be ok... though i'll probably annoyingly root against anything that might happen between next wed and next sun.. sorry in advance. that's the problem.. the good ones make life suck. that said, i would take 1"+ of ice if that was an option. I have a generator now, so bring on 1" plus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I only brought up ice because I see a legitimate chance for some. I never root for them. If one is incoming, I track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Saw one in CT that put down like 1.25" or so ice. It was pretty awesome but also terrible. Worth seeing once. We had that much in 1994. lots of tree damage and no power for a week. I don't like ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Please no ice. All I ever do in an ice storm is figure out, and then lament, the equivalent snowfall that coulda been. One exception February '07 was kinda cool but mainly because EVERYONE from south of here up to Boston had to deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We had that much in 1994. lots of tree damage and no power for a week. I don't like ice storms. Wes, euro ensembles are pretty wild. They basically say anything is possible d6-12. Very active. h5 mean supports today's op run overall. We're going to get a lot of wild swings in solutions on all ops as each piece in the flow is figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wes, euro ensembles are pretty wild. They basically say anything is possible d6-12. Very active. h5 mean supports today's op run overall. We're going to get a lot of wild swings in solutions on all ops as each piece in the flow is figured out. Anything but a torch I pray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Anything but a torch I pray? No, not at all. Very active period from this weekend through next weekend. I'm becoming pretty confident we don't get out of the next 2 weeks without another snow event. Probably not going to be pretty powder like today but it's probably one of the better pattern progressions to get something without having blocking. Maybe several small to moderate events. We'll just have to wait and see but at least it's not boring and depressing...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We had that much in 1994. lots of tree damage and no power for a week. I don't like ice storms. I lived in Owings for that -- it was ridiculous! Steady rain at like 21-24 degrees for an extended period, with IIRC at least two solid inches of glaze. I remember the sight of transformers blowing in every direction and the sound of large branches breaking all over the woods. The treeline down there was affected for years. NO ice storms for me, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Wes, euro ensembles are pretty wild. They basically say anything is possible d6-12. Very active. h5 mean supports today's op run overall. We're going to get a lot of wild swings in solutions on all ops as each piece in the flow is figured out. The pattern ends up being a formidable battle, but one we can win Good - Aleutian Low, Siberian Ridge, Western ridge, southeastern trough Bad - Baffin Island vortex, 50-50 High, Ireland trough Neutral - Neutral AO, quasi split flow/southern stream, neutral EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 We had that much in 1994. lots of tree damage and no power for a week. I don't like ice storms. I heard about the bad ice storms around here back then. Was in central Ohio at the time (Columbus area), and that January was brutally...and I mean brutally...cold there. The Feb. 2007 sleet/ice event is the one I recall best in my time living here. We lucked out by not getting all ice, but mostly sleet instead (areas not far to the south and east I believe got hit hard by freezing rain). It was about the only one I can think of lately where we didn't get a bit of ice followed by rising temperatures and rain. As everyone knows, that 3" or so of sleet immediately turned into a block of ice for the next week or so with cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The pattern ends up being a formidable battle, but one we can win Good - Aleutian Low, Siberian Ridge, Western ridge, southeastern trough Bad - Baffin Island vortex, 50-50 High, Ireland trough Neutral - Neutral AO, quasi split flow/southern stream, neutral EPO Yes, when I said anything is possible I meant plenty of op to fail too and also a big/organized storm is something we probably don't want. Weak waves or >1k lows running into cold air would be the ticket. Obviously having an imperfect pattern during peak temp climo isn't nearly as worrisome as opposed to the fringe periods. Looks like the euro is stepping away from a big relaxation like the gefs. We'll battle low heights out west for a time. 3-5 days? Ridging builds pretty quick over AK and a +pna will probably kick back in. -NAO still very much not in the cards. We can't even get teased by it on the models except for a stray 360hr gfs op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 No, not at all. Very active period from this weekend through next weekend. I'm becoming pretty confident we don't get out of the next 2 weeks without another snow event. Probably not going to be pretty powder like today but it's probably one of the better pattern progressions to get something without having blocking. Maybe several small to moderate events. We'll just have to wait and see but at least it's not boring and depressing...yet... Yeah, that would be very interesting. Something a'la mid-February last year would be fun to track, it was messy overall with heavy snow to some sleet to drizzle and some back-end snow. Not saying I necessarily expect a similarly impactful event, just that those can be interesting to follow. Much better than 5 minutes of snow followed by 40s and rain and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Last February was totally a fun storm, despite the changeover. Huge front end thump (I got foot) made the daytime change to rain bearable. Best of all the switch back to snow, which I had been skeptical of, delivered nicely with 3-4" and thundersnow plenty enough to freshen up the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Looks like the euro is stepping away from a big relaxation like the gefs. We'll battle low heights out west for a time. 3-5 days? Ridging builds pretty quick over AK and a +pna will probably kick back in. -NAO still very much not in the cards. We can't even get teased by it on the models except for a stray 360hr gfs op run. Good to see this. I know the GEFS has been hinting at the +PNA re-appearing after some relaxation. I don't think we can avoid that (hopefully short!) period of more zonal/relaxed flow, but it's currently not looking like we'll be stuck with what happened all through December. If only the -NAO would really show up! Maybe we'll have better luck with that toward the end of January and February, at least it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What's up HM....When is our -NAO coming? January 20th-25th? Yeah that's basically the next window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah that's basically the next window of opportunity. Seems like a wave 2 stretch/gut punch coming then. Maybe that's what can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 As I've said before, I have no skill with strat stuff other than a 10k foot view. The current cold outbreak is coinciding with a strat split @ 10-30-50mbs. Don't know how connected it is but seems awful coincidental. Maybe HM or someone can explain further. The split was well modeled in advance but wasn't strong enough to keep it split as the strat vortex re-consolidates in just a couple days. However, the gfs is advertising another split in the 11-15 day range (most prominent @ 50mbs). Euro @ d8-10 is showing the strat vortex elongating again and becoming more disturbed. I suppose this has some significance and isn't a useless observation on my part but what it really means is over my head. So these splits are a product of tropospheric waves...waves that are strong enough to upwell and disturb the stratospheric vortex. It can be used as a proxy for what's legit down in the atmospheric layer we care about. Splitting/warming events in the strat don't "downwell" to "change the AO" and they rarely lead to an "official SSW." The type of tropospheric waves that usually upwell are GIANT anticyclones that team-up, say over the EPO-PNA region and Scand. If the models are upwelling these quasi-stationary waves into the strat, then it is a good indication of not only their intensity/longevity, but that they are real signals on a model...instead of some transient feature that may or may not show up when we finally get to it in 2 weeks. Does this make sense? I know there is a lot of nonsense out there about the stratosphere. For example, don't ever listen to WSI. Their information is downright crap. Dr. Cohen also has publically said that people like Dr. Labitzke are studying stratospheric phenomenon that can't really predict the winter like his snow stuff can...not only is that insulting to her full body of amazing work http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/mitarbeiter/index.html but it is ridiculously inaccurate. And now he's paying for his ignorance...he even said he hasn't read much on things like the sun, QBO and ENSO....um then don't criticize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Seems like a wave 2 stretch/gut punch coming then. Maybe that's what can do it. The hybrid PNA to Nino pattern will be short-lived as more anticyclones break up there in the EPO-AO domain. Things are again becoming ripe for some type of eastern US cyclonic wave breaker (like xmas) around the 20th or so....maybe this time it will actually work out properly. This last time worked out sorta but it was lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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