usedtobe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, it's a wrap folks. Wes is calling for 8 to 14" in 6 to 10 days. Lol, That forecast would probably be as good as any I've made this winter. Only one of the analogs was a big storm, the rest were modest and 5 analogs yielded NADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 I think that the forecast for the mjo is looking better too, though I don't know how well these forecasts verify. mjo.gif My experience from looking at them is that they're not very reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Lol, That forecast would probably be as good as any I've made this winter. Only one of the analogs was a big storm, the rest were modest and 5 analogs yielded NADA. It's definitely not a big storm pattern so I'm not surprised there isn't one. It's a storm pattern at least. I just finished shoveling 3.8" and am ready for more ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro has a decent storm mon-tues but it's mostly rain. However, there is a wall of 1040+ hp to the n&w. Looks like a good ice setup (if not snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #4 is two days before Kennedy Inaugural storm (7.7" at DCA). #6 was the day of a moderate DC snowstorm (3.8" at DCA). #8 was the second day of a moderate snowstorm for the DC area (2.5" at DCA). They were all very cold storms and if I'm not mistaken they were all followed by another storm within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro has a decent storm mon-tues but it's mostly rain. However, there is a wall of 1040+ hp to the n&w. Looks like a good ice setup (if not snow). The period from Mond-Tuesday through the end of the 10 day forecast looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro actually has a 24 hour ice storm. Maybe .5qpf of mostly light stuff spread out over 4 six hour panels. I think it even gets topped off with a dusting to .5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro actually has a 24 hour ice storm. Maybe .5qpf of mostly light stuff spread out over 4 six hour panels. I think it even gets topped off with a dusting to .5" of snow. That's a lot of ice. It looks like .1-.2" QPF after 850s go below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That's a lot of ice. It looks like .1-.2" QPF after 850s go below 0C. It's showing precip in the area from hour 150 until 216. Make that hour 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That's a lot of ice. It looks like .1-.2" QPF after 850s go below 0C. What a cool run. It's precip for days of all types. Nothing heavy but would be a very long duration winter wx period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro actually has a 24 hour ice storm. Maybe .5qpf of mostly light stuff spread out over 4 six hour panels. I think it even gets topped off with a dusting to .5" of snow. since we don't get ice storms around here, it'll end up being snow because it (the cold) will get squashed south like today's clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro actually has a 24 hour ice storm. Maybe .5qpf of mostly light stuff spread out over 4 six hour panels. I think it even gets topped off with a dusting to .5" of snow.Looks like 12z GGEM, ice on top of snow is awesome if you want to look for heavy traffic on cams like I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #1 and #3 analogs had nice moderate snow events for BWI just before those dates. several of those are good dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's showing precip in the area from hour 150 until 216. Make that hour 228. 1 - 1.2" qpf spread out over 4 days with all precip types. I'm kinda rooting for it just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 They were all very cold storms and if I'm not mistaken they were all followed by another storm within a week. You are right-- all three of those were the start of a wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good Euro run...lots of trackable, mangled possibilities coming up in the next week to 10 days...I say we get another inch in DC before 1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The period from Mond-Tuesday through the end of the 10 day forecast looks interesting. Man you aren't kidding. Euro is obviously unlikely to verify but we've had stagnant boundaries before with moisture running off an on for a long period. Just doesn't usually happen in winter. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1 - 1.2" qpf spread out over 4 days with all precip types. I'm kinda rooting for it just for fun. As we track this storm it will be important to see what the models do with that huge high pressure. Let see if it trends on all the models. I only glanced at the Para today but I think it had a pretty cold look for most of next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What a cool run. It's precip for days of all types. Nothing heavy but would be a very long duration winter wx period. That would actually be kinda fun and different that usual. Screw it...let's root for a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Good Euro run...lots of trackable, mangled possibilities coming up in the next week to 10 days...I say we get another inch in DC before 1/16 hr 162 is puzzling. I just don't see how that is straight rain with that setup. Major CAD look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah, cool Euro run. Airmass gets stale next week, but climo, +PNA and good confluence to north holds in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What a cool run. It's precip for days of all types. Nothing heavy but would be a very long duration winter wx period. If you want a successful ice storm, you want light over a long duration. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 You are right-- all three of those were the start of a wintry period. I forgot about number 4 which of course was right after the Miller B dry slot storm for us, but that was still a moderate storm for the area and another very cold one followed by a couple days arctic cold and minor snow events through the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Man you aren't kidding. Euro is obviously unlikely to verify but we've had stagnant boundaries before with moisture running off an on for a long period. Just doesn't usually happen in winter. haha usually the sweet spot comes after 1/20, but often these T-2" events that we forget about come in situations exactly like that....a 0.2" one day...a 0.4" the next day...we need cold though...we had a couple similar events in the 2 crappy winters and I think one in 2011...as much as we suck at snow, we're just about closing in on the period where we can back into sh-it...unfortunately that period lasts like 3-4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 when in doubt, go to the snow maps 9-10" on Euro snow map for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What's the story with the 12Z GGEM for Friday/Saturday? Any takers? Showing snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 usually the sweet spot comes after 1/20, but often these T-2" events that we forget about come in situations exactly like that....a 0.2" one day...a 0.4" the next day...we need cold though...we had a couple similar events in the 2 crappy winters and I think one in 2011...as much as we suck at snow, we're just about closing in on the period where we can back into sh-it...unfortunately that period lasts like 3-4 weeks I have a hunch we end up with a decent ice event mixed in there. Something like a .15 - .25 deal. Obviously the urban centers struggle but there could be pretty big wedge setting up in the next week. I ran the h5 vort loops for the euro. It's a pretty good setup for long duration light precip. Confluent flow overhead, hp to the n & w, and all kinds of pieces of energy cruising along. D9-10 has a closed ull that looks to slide either under us or directly overhead. Obviously it's just a run and well outside of op model skill range but it's not like the euro is an outlier. GFS/GFS2/GGEM all have their own variation of the same theme. At least we won't be bored for a while. Euro also builds a nice +pna d10 so the fun would prob continue if that feature verifies. Has ensemble and other op support. I'm at 4.6" on the year including the .8" in November. Would love to close Jan with 10-12" regardless of how I get there. Makes climo much more in reach for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What's the story with the 12Z GGEM for Friday/Saturday? Any takers? Showing snow... Another clipper will pass through well to our north on Friday. GGEM shows maybe a couple flurries reaching us early Friday? With the low and vort passing so far to our north, I wouldn't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 What's the story with the 12Z GGEM for Friday/Saturday? Any takers? Showing snow... I'm in. The guys in the SE thread think we have the hot hand with a south trending, over performing clipper from 5 days out. I'll take the odds. Just not convinced the cold will hold for ice storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm in. The guys in the SE thread think we have the hot hand with a south trending, over performing clipper from 5 days out. I'll take the odds. Just not convinced the cold will hold for ice storm threat. I guess it's possible but getting two back to back to produce well would be extraordinarily unusual. Unless we're just looking for flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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