North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It's silly, I know, but I like it when the area sees a snowfall like today to remind the atmosphere that it can snow down here. Feels like it can prime the pump for something legit thereafter. Probably the fuzzy good memories I have of 12/5/09 prelude to 12/19/09 and the 1/30/10 prelude to the twin blizzards a week later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Euro ensembles starting to like the d8-10 window. Growing coastal signal. Lots of snowy solutions showing up (I'm sure some are mixed bags). Mean snowfall is 2.5" but some big hits mixed in. This could be a great week. Yup, even LWX mentioned it in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 12z PARA GFS has some light snow areawide late Sunday. OLD GFS has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 old GFS is a dumpster bath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 old GFS is a dumpster bath Cold and dry for the next 10 days before the warm/wet arrives. I think we'll tack on a little more before the MLK day mild-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Cold and dry for the next 10 days before the warm/wet arrives. I think we'll tack on a little more before the MLK day mild-up. there is alot of noise in the modeling for something next week but nothing stands out yet as far as timing or strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Winter is ON! till the end of the week at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Winter is ON! till the end of the week at least january thaw is always going to happen. Sometimes its the entire month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 january thaw is always going to happen. Sometimes its the entire month We will be in desperate need of a thaw after 10 days of actual winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 old GFS is a dumpster bath just remember how today's clipper looked 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 january thaw is always going to happen. Sometimes its the entire month It would be nice if this year it happened in December 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 As I've said before, I have no skill with strat stuff other than a 10k foot view. The current cold outbreak is coinciding with a strat split @ 10-30-50mbs. Don't know how connected it is but seems awful coincidental. Maybe HM or someone can explain further. The split was well modeled in advance but wasn't strong enough to keep it split as the strat vortex re-consolidates in just a couple days. However, the gfs is advertising another split in the 11-15 day range (most prominent @ 50mbs). Euro @ d8-10 is showing the strat vortex elongating again and becoming more disturbed. I suppose this has some significance and isn't a useless observation on my part but what it really means is over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 That northern lobe that drops around northern Canada next Monday is what we need to keep an eye on. That's what seems to be getting in the way of the potential mid-week system on the models that diminishes any significant storm from forming. If it can either remain further north or come east quicker, it could help the situation. Of course there still could be some smaller ice/snow threat early next week if we can get a little wave to come far enough up the coast while the high and cold air is still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para is actually pretty interesting for the Sunday period. Nothing huge, but man, there's a lot of moisture just to our south...we get nicked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 As I've said before, I have no skill with strat stuff other than a 10k foot view. The current cold outbreak is coinciding with a strat split @ 10-30-50mbs. Don't know how connected it is but seems awful coincidental. Maybe HM or someone can explain further. The split was well modeled in advance but wasn't strong enough to keep it split as the strat vortex re-consolidates in just a couple days. However, the gfs is advertising another split in the 11-15 day range (most prominent @ 50mbs). Euro @ d8-10 is showing the strat vortex elongating again and becoming more disturbed. I suppose this has some significance and isn't a useless observation on my part but what it really means is over my head. I think we'll have 1-2 event to track between 1/10 and 1/15 before the pattern relaxes. I certainly hope so. Because punting even a few days after 1/15 sucks big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para is actually pretty interesting for the Sunday period. Nothing huge, but man, there's a lot of moisture just to our south...we get nicked though. Close calls are as good as hits beyond 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Para is actually pretty interesting for the Sunday period. Nothing huge, but man, there's a lot of moisture just to our south...we get nicked though. The euro should overamp something soon, and give us all false hope...maybe even in 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Close calls are as good as hits beyond 4 days. GGEM looks to have something also late Sunday/early Monday FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Really nice split flow/+pna look d8-10 on the gefs. Same period the euro ens have winter storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hmmm....gefs also losing the goa trough/lower heights out west/ridge east down the line. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Hmmm....gefs also losing the goa trough/lower heights out west/ridge east down the line. Nice run. thanks man. I hacked it this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The euro should overamp something soon, and give us all false hope...maybe even in 10 minutes We're out of practice. I look forward to staying up for multiple nights consecutively until 3am, running on 2 hours of sleep and then get a soul crushing run 24 to 36 hours before a threat and then plunging into depression upon realizing that it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #1 and #3 analogs had nice moderate snow events for BWI just before those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #1 and #3 analogs had nice moderate snow events for BWI just before those dates. If today is only an appetizer for a bigger event in the next 7-10 days then I would declare Dec-Jan saved winter wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 If today is only an appetizer for a bigger event in the next 7-10 days then I would declare Dec-Jan saved winter wise. I didn't go through the whole list, but a couple others near the top half I checked had big precip events very near those dates. One was definitely rain based on temps and another was probably snow, but not sure (temps were near freezing that day). Getting a widespread 2-4"/3-6" storm before the pattern relaxes later next week would be huge. Would give us a legit shot at climo+ if late Jan/Feb can perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #1 and #3 analogs had nice moderate snow events for BWI just before those dates. #4 is two days before Kennedy Inaugural storm (7.7" at DCA). #6 was the day of a moderate DC snowstorm (3.8" at DCA). #8 was the second day of a moderate snowstorm for the DC area (2.5" at DCA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #4 is two days before Kennedy Inaugural storm (7.7" at DCA). #6 was the day of a moderate DC snowstorm (3.8" at DCA). #8 was the second day of a moderate snowstorm for the DC area (2.5" at DCA). Nice, thanks for the follow up. It's a decent setup just based on the 500mb features. Strong +PNA with a good position of the ridge axis for a coastal storm, 50/50 feature for confluence/cold air. AO and NAO both look fairly neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 #1 and #3 analogs had nice moderate snow events for BWI just before those dates. for DCA it is way better than that. 5 of the ten analogs have snowstorms within 3 days of the centered mean. Jan 5, 2003.....3" Jan 19 1961....7" Jan 22 2005 ...3" Jan 16 1965....2.2" Jan 28, 1995...3.9 It's a pretty good 6-10 day. Had to edit the post as I misread my excell spreadsheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, it's a wrap folks. Wes is calling for 8 to 14" in 6 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Well, it's a wrap folks. Wes is calling for 8 to 14" in 6 to 10 days. I think that the forecast for the mjo is looking better too, though I don't know how well these forecasts verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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